June 25 Ganchalysis

**Ganchrow** · 06-25-06, 10:59 AM

Detroit 65% - St Louis has a lot of pitching weakness for this game. Ponson will be vulnerable to getting hit, and he doesn't tend to go deep into games, which will be a problem because the pen is vulnerable today as well. Bonderman is in a spot where he is more likely than normal to have an off day, but he is also likely to have a solid start, and the Detroit pen is in good shape here.

Cleveland 53% - This game has all the usual question marks involving a highly anticipated debut of a top pitching prospect. Sowers has had eye-popping success in the minors. Reports say he has the "poise" to be successful right away in the majors, which means something, but not a whole lot. This game has a very low confidence factor. Both pens are very weak, and Sowers' pitch count is likely to be high.

**bigboydan** · 06-25-06, 11:35 AM

i like the tribe myself today ganchrow.

from the reports i have read about this kid, he sounds like he's the real deal.

**Ganchrow** · 06-25-06, 12:42 PM

Minnesota 56% - Minnesota holds only small edges in all areas of this game. Marshall has had a high degree of volatility this year, and that benefits the Cubs here. Marshall is more likely than usual to have a good outing.

Milwaukee 54% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence factor. Helling has been hurt but reports say he has no structural damage but is still experiencing pain. His last start also presented conflicting indicators as to his current state. Milwaukee has a big lineup edge and a solid bullpen edge, so they rate a modest overall edge for the game.

**Illusion** · 06-25-06, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by ganchrow

Minnesota 56% - Minnesota holds only small edges in all areas of this game. Marshall has had a high degree of volatility this year, and that benefits the Cubs here. Marshall is more likely than usual to have a good outing.

He will need a good showing since that Cubs offense is so piss poor (even with Lee back)

**Ganchrow** · 06-25-06, 01:48 PM

Texas 51% - Texas has a modest edge with Padilla, but in all other areas this game rates roughly even. Kim has had a high degree of volatility this year.

**moses millsap** · 06-25-06, 02:05 PM

Ganch,

Interested in your thoughts on the Oak/SF game. Does the SF bullpen rate higher with Armando basically ready to get sent back onto the DL

Interested in what you expect from both starters in this spot.

**Ganchrow** · 06-25-06, 02:43 PM

San Francisco 58% - We have a low confidence factor for this game considering the many conflicting indicators. Cain is likely to throw another solid game, although he is more likely than usual to have an off day. He is also less likely than usual to go deep into the game, which could hurt San Francisco considering their bullpen problems right now. Minor variations in the inning-depth of Cain's performance greatly affect the overall expected outcome of the game, contributing to the low confidence factor. Loaiza is more likely than normal to have a good game, although he has had a high degree of volatility this year and last year as well.

**bigboydan** · 06-25-06, 03:41 PM

whats your thoughts on that late game (houston/white sox )ganchrow ?

**Ganchrow** · 06-25-06, 05:22 PM

Houston 51% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty and conflicting statistical indicators. The White Sox lineup is likely to have a strong game, but Oswalt is as well. On the other side, the Houston lineup is likely to have a weak game, but Vazquez is as well. Additionally, with both bullpens slightly weak and extended for this game, relatively minor variations in the starting pitchers' performances greatly alter the expected outcome of the game. Lineup changes could affect the percentage.

**bigboydan** · 06-25-06, 05:45 PM

i like houston in this game myself tonight ganchrow.

the only thing i'm really concerned with with houston tonight. the fact they just can't beat the white sox.

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

i like houston in this game myself tonight ganchrow.

Well they're 2-0 up, but I took Houson tonight to pass the time while I watch it.

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 07:43 PM

And that was a cracking double play.

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 10:04 PM

Cheers, Brad.

**Terris** · 06-25-06, 10:05 PM

and that was a cracking homer ^^

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 10:08 PM

Brad "Lights Out" Lidge? I'd like to punch that fcuker's lights out.

**moses millsap** · 06-25-06, 10:11 PM

I just turned this on thinking SC was on and see it's 9-9. Yikes.

**onlooker** · 06-25-06, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

Brad "Lights Out" Lidge? I'd like to punch that fcuker's lights out.

You and me both. Mainly the Astros manager. Why do these managers bring in the closer in a non-save situation? It never seems to work.

**bigboydan** · 06-25-06, 10:13 PM

don't remind me bud. i can't believe they imploded like that

**moses millsap** · 06-25-06, 10:14 PM

Good luck guys. I passed on this one since I got two bums to cash for me earlier in the day in Loaiza and Batista and didn't want to push my luck.

**Terris** · 06-25-06, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

And that was a cracking double play.

*hides*

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by Terris

*hides*

That was a gift from Ausmus thinking it was a good idea to swing at his first frickin' pitch.

**onlooker** · 06-25-06, 10:24 PM

Maybe the Astros should of spent that 22 million or 12 million they are giving Clemens on some relief pitching. This is down right robbery.

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 10:25 PM

One of the presenters over here noted that the bullpen ERA is in the region of 9 when Oswalt is the starting pitcher. Shocking.

**tacomax** · 06-26-06, 07:04 AM