Capping and discussions 6/25

[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[bigboydan]

heres the numbers on these two pitchers going tomorrow:

SOWERS(L): 9-1, 1.39era, 54-29 k/bb in 15gs,
97.1 IP @ AAA Buffalo


JAMES(L): 7 relief app. w/Atl (2.38era); 1-0, 2.67 in 6gs @ AAA Richmond
TBS

[bigboydan]

heres the early overnight consensus numbers from carib.

i'll update them tomorrow in the morning before gametime.

# 901 4:10pm Pirates (K Wells) vs Dodgers (B Penny) Dodgers 87.06%
Pirates 12.94%
255 Bets

# 903 12:05pm Mets (S Trachsel) vs Blue Jays (J Towers) Mets 71.43%
Blue Jays 28.57%
210 Bets

# 905 1:05pm Reds (E Ramirez) vs Indians (J Sowers) Reds 46.34%
Indians 53.66%
123 Bets

# 907 1:05pm Cardinals (S Ponson) vs Tigers (Bonderman) Tigers 70.42%
Cardinals 29.58%
213 Bets

# 909 1:05pm Marlins (D Willis) vs Yankees (M Mussina) Marlins 6.35%
Yankees 93.65%
189 Bets

# 911 1:35pm Nationals (L Hernandez) vs Orioles (D Cabrera) Orioles 60.00%
Nationals 40.00%
60 Bets

# 913 1:15pm Braves (C James) vs Devil Rays (Hendrikson)(TBS) Braves 42.31%
Devil Rays 57.69%
78 Bets

# 915 2:05pm Phillies (C Lidle) vs Red Sox (Wakefield) Red Sox 84.00%
Phillies 16.00%
150 Bets

# 917 8:05pm Astros (R Oswalt) vs White Sox (J Vazquez)(ESPN) White Sox 66.13%
Astros 33.87%
186 Bets

# 919 2:10pm Brewers (R Helling) vs Royals (M Redman) Royals 44.44%
Brewers 55.56%
81 Bets

# 921 2:10pm Cubs (S Marshall) vs Twins (B Radke)(WGN) Cubs 0.00%
Twins 100.00%
213 Bets

# 923 3:05pm Rangers (V Padilla) vs Rockies (B H Kim) Rockies 12.50%
Rangers 87.50%
96 Bets

# 925 4:05pm Mariners (J Pineiro) vs Padres (H Thompson) Padres 100.00%
Mariners 0.00%
21 Bets

# 927 4:05pm Athletics (E Loaiza) vs Giants (M Cain) Athletics 66.67%
Giants 33.33%
54 Bets

# 929 4:40pm Angels (K Escobar) vs Diamondbacks (M Bastista) Angels 63.16%
Diamondbacks 36.84%
57 Bets

[bigboydan]

day/night double header on sunday between the yankees and marlins.

[bigboydan]

heres a few pitching stats vs the teams there facing on sunday:

Sidney Ponson Career vs. DET is 4-2

Mike Mussina Career vs. FLA 0-2


Rick Helling Career vs. KC 6-3
Mark Redman Career vs. MIL 5-2

Esteban Loaiza Career vs. SF 5-1
Matt Cain Career vs. OAK 1-0


Joel Piñeiro Career vs. SD 2-0

Javier Vázquez Career vs. HOU 5-2

[Wassymac]

I'm tempted to fade Ponson significantly tomorrow. Need to cap it first though.

[bigboydan]

I'm tempted to fade Ponson significantly tomorrow. Need to cap it first though.

the way the cardinals are playing right now, i can't say i blame ya bud if you did.

[Wassymac]

He's been shaky the whole year...and even more since he got off the DL. He was bumped to the bullpen but Mulder's "injury" has forced LaRussa to throw him back into the fray. Bonderman's track record at home this year isn't impressive though.

I don't think I'd play the Cardinals at +250 tomorrow.

[bigboydan]

game time forcasts for sunday:

New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays

Forecast : 74°F
Wind: From the NE at 11 mph



Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Forecast : 74°F
Wind: From the NNE at 7 mph


Marlins
Yankees
Forecast : 72°F
Wind: From the SE at 10 mph
Probability of Precip:70 %


Astros
White Sox
Forecast : 73°F
Probability of Precip:40 %
Wind: From the NNE at 8 mph


A's
Giants
Forecast : 73°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the WNW at 7 mph


Mariners
Padres
Forecast : 76°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the W at 10 mph


Cardinals
Tigers
Forecast : 76°F
Probability of Precip:20 %
Wind: From the NE at 7 mph


Rangers
Rockies
Forecast : 72°F
Probability of Precip:10 %
Wind: From the ENE at 9 mph


Cubs
Twins
Forecast : 75°F (indoors)


Brewers
Royals
Forecast : 76°F
Probability of Precip:20 %
Wind: From the NNW at 11 mph


Pirates
Dodgers
Forecast : 83°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the WNW at 3 mph


Braves
D'Rays
Forecast: dome/indoors


Nationals
Orioles
Forecast : 77°F
Probability of Precip:70 %
Wind: From the SSE at 8 mph


LA Angels of Anaheim
D'backs
Forecast : 103°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the SSE at 9 mph
(odds are the roof will be closed)


Phillies
Red Sox
Forecast : 70°F
Probability of Precip:50 %
Wind: From the SSE at 7 mph

[Patrick McIrish]

Dan (or anyone else), any comments on these? Haven't played them yet, in fact haven't really capped them yet but price seems right at first glance. What say you?


Cincy +107
Philly +160
StL +151
NYM 123



Didn't really shop lines yet either, these are Pinny or BetJM, just need 2 of these to win in order to make a profit.

[bigboydan]

i do happen to like the Phillies in that game Pat. although they sure did burn me today

boy, you sure did pick a gem in that mets/blue jays game didn't ya ...towers might suck, but Trachsel is just about as bad. very small lean towards the mets in this game, although i'll be passing on it.

st.louis might not be a bad play in this spot. although, they have been in one big time tailspin as of late, which really scares the hell out of me. if i had to play it i'd take the cardinals.

i happen to like the tribe over the reds in this spot. sowers has looked really good in triple A, and is worth a shot in this spot here.

[Patrick McIrish]

Sounds like you aren't in love with the plays, LOL, I'll dig a little deeper. Thanks for your input.

[bigboydan]

nothing really jumped out at me at all on sundays bases slate. the one that did kinda jumped out at me was the tribe though, and you like the reds in that game.

[Patrick McIrish]

nothing really jumped out at me at all on sundays bases slate. the one that did kinda jumped out at me was the tribe though, and you like the reds in that game.

Hey don't get off the game on account of what I said, just barely looked the games over when I posted. All I looked at was pitching, I know Ramirez has a crappy record but he's actually been pretty effective statistically. I just noted it was a first timer being brought up against him and the Reds hit lefties pretty well (better than righties actually) so thought as a dog it might be worth a play. But PLEASE don't get off it, I haven't even capped a game this week due to other obligations, probably be smart to fade all 4 of them, LOL.

PS - you really think Traschel is as bad as Towers though?

[bigboydan]

pat, With Traschel's chronic back problems, who's to really know how effective he will be tomorrow pitching in that canadian air.

i know he's pitched perty good as of late, but i can't lay that kinda wood with him in this spot with him on the hill, and theres no way on gods green earth i'd take towers.

[bigboydan]

Derrek Lee to return to Cubs lineup Sunday

[onlooker]

Derrek Lee to return to Cubs lineup Sunday

About damn time. Hes been taking up the DL spot on my fantasy team for quite awhile. Back just in time for the 2nd half run Im preparing for.

Here is the article on the day early comeback of Derrek Lee.

Article

Lee to rejoin Cubs for Sunday's game at Twins

Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Derrek Lee will be back with the Chicago Cubs for Sunday's game at Minnesota after just one minor league rehab appearance.

The move to activate Lee from the disabled list will come one day sooner than expected, as injuries to Tony Womack and Freddy Bynum during Saturday night's 3-0 loss to Minnesota forced Chicago's hand.

Lee went 1-for-4 and with an RBI single Saturday night in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.

The Omaha Royals beat Iowa 10-4.

"I've got to go to work tomorrow. It wasn't expected, but unfortunately two guys got hurt tonight so we had to make a move," Lee said. "I'm excited. I'm ready to go."

After groundouts in the first and third inning, Lee smacked a 1-1 pitch from Omaha's Runelvys Hernandez into center field for an RBI single. Lee grounded out to short in the seventh and was pulled from the game after the inning.

After the game Lee said his wrist was "good to go."

"It's what we expected it to be, just not quite as strong. But in a week or two it will be ready to go full strength," Lee said.

Lee had never landed on the disabled list during his 10-year major league career before a collision with Los Angeles shortstop Rafael Furcal left him with two broken bones in his right wrist.

Lee had picked up where he left off following last year's breakout campaign, hitting .318 with three homers and 10 RBI in 44 at-bats before the injury.

His absence coincided with a Cubs tailspin. Chicago was 9-5 before Lee went down but has gone 19-40 since.

Lee wasn't the only big leaguer in town for a rehab appearance. Royals closer Mike MacDougal, who strained his right shoulder during spring training, pitched two-thirds of an inning for Omaha and allowed three runs.

[Illusion]

Lee hasn't had that much rehab time. I really think he's rushing it.

[bigboydan]

updared injury info:

LA (2B) Kent - NOT expected to start

TOR (OF) Rios and (3B) Glaus NOT in starting lineup

SOWERS(L): 9-1, 1.39era, 54-29 k/bb in 15gs,
97.1 IP @ AAA Buffalo

STL (OF) Edmonds - Questionable

JAMES(L): 7 relief app. w/Atl (2.38era); 1-0, 2.67 in 6gs @ AAA Richmond
TBS

CHC (1B) Lee IS expected to start.

SF (OF) Alou Questionable


DH#2 (WRITE-IN GAME)
Florida Probable: SANCHEZ, ANIBAL (R) 3-6, 3.15 ERA, 85.2 INNINGS @ AA - CAROLINA

[bigboydan]

heres the latest consensus numbers from carib:

# 901 4:10pm Pirates (K Wells) vs Dodgers (B Penny) Dodgers 62.83%
Pirates 37.17%
4842 Bets

# 905 1:05pm Reds (E Ramirez) vs Indians (J Sowers) Reds 39.65%
Indians 60.35%
2232 Bets

# 907 1:05pm Cardinals (S Ponson) vs Tigers (Bonderman) Tigers 44.66%
Cardinals 55.34%
3936 Bets

# 909 1:05pm Marlins (D Willis) vs Yankees (M Mussina)(DH Game#1) Marlins 40.63%
Yankees 59.37%
4356 Bets

# 911 1:35pm Nationals (L Hernandez) vs Orioles (D Cabrera) Orioles 49.05%
Nationals 50.95%
1584 Bets

# 913 1:15pm Braves (C James) vs Devil Rays (Hendrikson)(TBS) Braves 51.23%
Devil Rays 48.77%
3168 Bets

# 915 2:05pm Phillies (C Lidle) vs Red Sox (Wakefield) Red Sox 52.30%
Phillies 47.70%
4050 Bets

# 917 8:05pm Astros (R Oswalt) vs White Sox (J Vazquez)(ESPN) White Sox 50.00%
Astros 50.00%
2814 Bets

# 919 2:10pm Brewers (R Helling) vs Royals (M Redman) Royals 39.05%
Brewers 60.95%
1260 Bets

# 921 2:10pm Cubs (S Marshall) vs Twins (B Radke)(WGN) Cubs 38.73%
Twins 61.27%
3114 Bets

# 923 3:05pm Rangers (V Padilla) vs Rockies (B H Kim) Rockies 15.13%
Rangers 84.87%
1428 Bets

# 925 4:05pm Mariners (J Pineiro) vs Padres (H Thompson) Padres 54.95%
Mariners 45.05%
1698 Bets

# 927 4:05pm Athletics (E Loaiza) vs Giants (M Cain) Athletics 53.34%
Giants 46.66%
1839 Bets

# 929 4:40pm Angels (K Escobar) vs Diamondbacks (M Bastista) Angels 68.31%
Diamondbacks 31.69%
1278 Bets

# 931 8:05pm Marlins (A Sanchez) vs Yankees (S Chacon)(DH Game#2) Marlins 40.00%
Yankees 60.00%
690 Bets

[bigboydan]

F.Y.I.

Philadelphia/Boston Postponed today

[bigboydan]

heres the latest consensus numbers on game 2 of the college w.s. tonight:

# 831 7:00pm Oregon St vs N Carolina (College Baseball World Series Championship)(Game #2) Oregon St 61.70%
N Carolina 38.30%
564 Bets

[moses millsap]

Bonds may be hurt. He just scored a run, but was limping noticeably on the way home.

Got an opinion on the total in that game, Dan?

[bigboydan]

which game bud ?

[moses millsap]

Osu/unc

[bigboydan]

no opinion on the total at all. although, i will be taking osu tonight.

[moses millsap]

Bonds is out of the game.

[bigboydan]

that sure sucks for the giants backers today.

[moses millsap]

Why isn't Josh Johnson pitching for the Marlins today?

[moses millsap]

Batista hasn't given up a hit, but he's down 2-0 thanks to two walks and three wild pitches.