Why are the Brewers -135 tonight against the Reds

[MM Discipline]

Getting the #1 Espn Power Rankings team at +117 seems way too good to be true which is why I am making this thread. Are people pounding the Reds or are they trying to sniff out this weird line or are people just staying away in general....

My thinking is the Brewers just played last night in St. Louis and couldn't manage to score any runs even though they were able to get a couple doubles at the begginning of some innings. Obviiusly Gallardo is their ace, but still Arroyo isn't THAT bad at all and it is the Reds who are on fire lately. They both sport similar ERA's and records (which can be very misleading for sports bettors) of 7-6 3.87 for Arroyo and 9-8 3.92 for Gallardo.


The Reds are 15-2 in their last 17 losing last night to Burnett who seems to have some of his old skills back.


I am not a rookie bettor as I have been at this for about 5 years now and have learned that blindly taking the best teams on hot streaks can really hurt you. I am hoping somebody can shed some light for me though on why the Brewers have at least a 50% chance of winning this game

[shimeon40]

Because the reds have put their money on brewers to win.

[ColdBeerHere]

From briefly looking at it looks like the Reds are a very good value...Reds batting stats against Gallardo are very good whereas Brewers stats against Bronson are not very good at all....

I'm leaning Reds on this one for sure....Maybe someone else can chime in here but Reds look good to me...

I don't get the line either.....

[shimeon40]

Maybe it's a vegas "free money" promotion...hardly..there would be a very very good reason your not seeing.

[MM Discipline]

Does anyone know a good site where you can look at past games lines for a team. I want to look back at the Reds opening and closing lines during this 17 game hot streak and see how many of the games they were Underdogs and against who and with whom pitching...... and then of course what the results were

[bullshooter]

Does anyone know a good site where you can look at past games lines for a team. I want to look back at the Reds opening and closing lines during this 17 game hot streak and see how many of the games they were Underdogs and against who and with whom pitching...... and then of course what the results were

http://www.scoresandodds.com/index.html

I use this sight for almost everything.

[MM Discipline]

And ShimeOn40 I totally agree. The fact that the Reds are 15-2 in the last 17 and that the Brewers are 5-12 in last 17. Also Reds hit Gallardo well while Brewers dont hit Arroyo well. Pretty much everything points towards the Reds...which usually means take the Brewers. Think I'm gonna just skip though I just like to look and explore these kind of games they always intrigue me

[shimeon40]

No worries..BOL.It maybe free money..i just don't like being "lured" in by "too good to be true deals" in anything.

[ColdBeerHere]

Sometimes in these situations I like to go to a team's message boards and talk directly with the fans, or read what they are saying to get their perspectives....You might get something from them that you might not get from the gambling community...

[MM Discipline]

Oh and ShimeOn I think you got the wrong idea by the thread title. I would never take the Reds here. In my mind it'd be Brewers or skip and in this specific case I am going SKIP

[shimeon40]

good call mmdiscipline...thats discipline your sowing.

[shimeon40]

showing sorry.

[JMon]

Check out how Gallardo does at home vs. NL teams with an OBP of .325 or less over the last two seasons or at home vs. a NL team with a team BA of .255 or less the last two seasons.... Also check and see how Gallardo does following a game of a WHIP less than one and is labeled as a favorite.

[ColdBeerHere]

Check out how Gallardo does at home vs. NL teams with an OBP of .325 or less over the last two seasons or at home vs. a NL team with a team BA of .255 or less the last two seasons.... Also check and see how Gallardo does following a game of a WHIP less than one and is labeled as a favorite.

Don't know where to find those stats....can you just tell us ?

[JMon]

Don't know where to find those stats....can you just tell us ?

You can find this on any stat page. I could easily tell you, but don't you want to learn how too fully cap a game, especially when an odd line sticks out? In short, gun to the head, I would take Milw...but not playing this game. gl

[kcburg]

all in on the Red's

[El Nino]

Gallardo is a stud at home. Lots of touts and John Ryan on Brew Crew. I threw a unit on the Reds.

[JMon]

Check out how Gallardo does at home vs. NL teams with an OBP of .325 or less over the last two seasons or at home vs. a NL team with a team BA of .255 or less the last two seasons.... Also check and see how Gallardo does following a game of a WHIP less than one and is labeled as a favorite.

[HoulihansTX]

Getting the #1 Espn Power Rankings team

[MM Discipline]

Good Job to most of us boys. We knew there was something going on with that Brewers line. Brew Crew won last night 6-3 against the Reds