MLB - Monday, 8/6/12

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Monday


Diamondbacks -113 (DSI)
Nationals / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 228-187-16, +51.40

[NewYorkKnicks87]

BOOM I feel another good day LT!

[Vinnie Paz]

Yes sir thank you again

[acl123]

Nice day yesterday LT!

[agendaman]

plus 51.40 u v.v.impressive

[LT Profits]

MLB 4-Play

2 MLB Plays Monday


Diamondbacks -113 (DSI)
Nationals / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 228-187-16, +51.40

Adding:

Diamondbacks / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
Giants +104 (Heritage)


MLB Card complete

[JimmyG_415]

BOOM I feel another good day LT!

I do too, LT.
I don't see too many haters today,
You shut them up pretty good yesterday.

[OhMyEli]

LT I'm loving Bal v. Seattle under 8.5. I don't see a solid angle why to not play this. Vargas is worse on the road, but his numbers outside of one month this season have been extremely solid, and Seattle does not put up very many numbers (especially going against Tillman) Thoughts on this, I really like it.

[LT Profits]

LT I'm loving Bal v. Seattle under 8.5. I don't see a solid angle why to not play this. Vargas is worse on the road, but his numbers outside of one month this season have been extremely solid, and Seattle does not put up very many numbers (especially going against Tillman) Thoughts on this, I really like it.

If I HAD to play it. I would take the Under but it is strictly a lean. I don't like Vargas's FIP of 4.74 (not enough strikeouts for a flyball pitcher) or xFIP of 4.37 (takes advantage of Safeco).

[borednaz]

LT, why not go with Washington over Houston? To much chalk? I mean I see your under no matter what. But both teams traveling, Both pitchers can be gas cans. But I doubt either team wants to Swing for the fences today.

[LT Profits]

LT, why not go with Washington over Houston? To much chalk? I mean I see your under no matter what. But both teams traveling, Both pitchers can be gas cans. But I doubt either team wants to Swing for the fences today.

Have you ever seen me lay more than -130 on any single game?

[borednaz]

True, you don't have to be defensive it was just a general question. Wanted to know your thoughts.

[sergiudec]

On the under wash/astros! Good luck guys!

[OhMyEli]

(This is a general question not attacking you LT)

I am just wondering if you can specify the way you go about your bets. You're looking at the price off the bat rather than the matchups and numbers? I know some guys look at trends, some look for matchups, would it be accurate to say you base your initial thoughts for your card on where you perceive value based on the price? It is obviously working I just only started betting baseball 2 years ago and can't imagine this works in the other two major sports, whilst a complex yet nuanced system that would work in baseball. Just curious, cheers.

[LT Profits]

True, you don't have to be defensive it was just a general question. Wanted to know your thoughts.

I wasn't being defensive, I probably should have attached a smiley thingy at the end of it. My point was that I rarely lay more than -130 on a single event, especially in baseball. But that's just me as I concede that there ARE +EV bets with substantially higher odds. However, I am more apt to play those on long-term bets or series bets and such than on single games (i.e., Buffalo Bills OVER 7.5 wins -190).

[LT Profits]

(This is a general question not attacking you LT)

I am just wondering if you can specify the way you go about your bets. You're looking at the price off the bat rather than the matchups and numbers? I know some guys look at trends, some look for matchups, would it be accurate to say you base your initial thoughts for your card on where you perceive value based on the price? It is obviously working I just only started betting baseball 2 years ago and can't imagine this works in the other two major sports, whilst a complex yet nuanced system that would work in baseball. Just curious, cheers.

All my bets in all sports are based on value, I handicap what percent of the time something should happen and then compare that to the actual odds. The second part is the easy part.

[OhMyEli]

All my bets in all sports are based on value, I handicap what percent of the time something should happen and then compare that to the actual odds. The second part is the easy part.

I see. Well yes all sports can be based on the percentage of inbetween, but football has way fewer games, prices are off at the begining of the year, and injuries significantly affect the outcome more than baseball. I just can't imagine how it works well in basketball and football, between amount of games in football, and not being able to make as much off upsets in basketball.
Interesting approach anyway.

[lunchbawks]

Lt fades the public its no secret. Gets max value on unders and dogs, just so happens to be having a killer run

[LT Profits]

Lt fades the public its no secret. Gets max value on unders and dogs, just so happens to be having a killer run

Not 100% of the time, but yeah, MOST of the time the value is on the non-public side.

[riffraff24]

Hey LT...What are your thoughts on tonight's Dodgers/Rockies game? As you know dodgers are fresh off a sweep of the cubs where they were HEAVILY favored in each game...One of the biggest lines of the year was on Saturdays game where Kershaw was -300+. How can anyone continue to lay this kind of juice on a Dodgers team that could easily go all game with 2 hits.

As bad as the Rockies are...Isn't there value here on them facing Capuano?

[Vasco]

Lt fades the public its no secret. Gets max value on unders and dogs, just so happens to be having a killer run

Big difference between blindly "fading the public" and finding value in underdogs.

[BigD46]

I really like the DBacks play (to win).

BOL LT.

[rumnblack]

Like the dBacks, G/L

[LT Profits]

Hey LT...What are your thoughts on tonight's Dodgers/Rockies game? As you know dodgers are fresh off a sweep of the cubs where they were HEAVILY favored in each game...One of the biggest lines of the year was on Saturdays game where Kershaw was -300+. How can anyone continue to lay this kind of juice on a Dodgers team that could easily go all game with 2 hits.

As bad as the Rockies are...Isn't there value here on them facing Capuano?

Just a lean to Rockies, Pomeranz is erratic

[BamaCBass]

LT, how'd do you typically do in football if I may (re-ask as I'm sure you have been asked a million times)?

[LT Profits]

LT, how'd do you typically do in football if I may (re-ask as I'm sure you have been asked a million times)?

I've always been much stronger in NCAA than NFL. In fact, I had a losing year in NFL last season (46-56-1, -11.53 YIKES). NCAAF was 89-78-3, +7.83 and I have yet to have a losing college foots year at SBR (starting 2007-08 season).

[BamaCBass]

I've always been much stronger in NCAA than NFL. In fact, I had a losing year in NFL last season (46-56-1, -11.53 YIKES). NCAAF was 89-78-3, +7.83 and I have yet to have a losing college foots year at SBR (starting 2007-08 season).

Nice! I'll be sure to check out some college ball. GL!

[MCOZONE]

Tyler Clippard does his best John Axford impression to cost the under. Anyone hated more than gamblers than Closers?

[italianbandit]

Big difference between blindly "fading the public" and finding value in underdogs.

Well said.

[redrum]

nfl is tricky

[nic9212]

Damn

[PRIMO99]

Lt. Is working on "primo" status

Primo is the nfl wizard...


But bends the lines at the books so i cant post my plays till after ive adjusted the lines...
Also a fantasy specialist

keep up the good baseball intel....