Slowly making money on chalk !

[briedward]

As I've said before, I don't know sh*t about baseball. After picking teams for the past few weeks, my methods have evolved, and I'm finally making a little profit. I currently only have a bankroll of about 13K.

If people want me to post picks, I will try to do so. No replies, I will stay silent...for a little bit - lol.

My method is pretty simple:

winning % of team for that starter: ERA of pitcher: ERA of pitcher home (or away): OBS vs right (or left): OBS home (or away).

Then I circle which stat is better for each of the teams. If I get about 4 bubbles that line up on that team, I bet. If it's a pitcher I love (like Weaver or Burnett at home), I bet huge. If it's an ace pitcher on the road vs non-ace, I'll bet $250 (I don't expect to win on the road). If it's an ace pitcher at home vs non-ace, I'll bet $500. If I don't know sh*t about either pitcher, I'll bet $100.

http://briedward.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

(yes sometimes I post picks on my spreadsheet after-the-fact - I'm not obsessive about posting prior to the game - it's really meant as a tool for me to track how I'm doing)

[agendaman]

briedward/ go ahead post a few picks/ill tail if you are good /tip ok /your 13k bankroll is plenty BUT dont get too hung up on any sp./team and bet 4 or 5k /remember the activity is called gambling gl

[briedward]

I didn't have time to run my numbers this evening. So shooting from the hip, I put for 7/26 500 on burnett, 250 on verlander, and 100 on Athletics (all moneyline)

[briedward]

For 7/27 I'm picking (all ML): $500 on Cardinals; $250 on Phillies; $100 Brewers, Angels, Twins. Depending on the line, I may go as high as 1K on SF Giants.