How I made 1,836.00 by the All Star Break

[HoulihansTX]

Is there any correlation with totals? I would imagine high totals would tend to be higher scoring games and better chance for multiple run wins

Yes. that is why you can not get RL's overnight on Cubs home games. Since the total is not available until the morning.

[Inspirited]

PMcG012

no that would be an easy road to profit that many of us have thought of in the past before.

[killawookie]

I made a thread before.. became too stressful for myself .. especially when i lost 2 in a row after a few wins. There is ALWAYS RISK.. I just try to minimalize it. You can avoid failure staying away from a SF/OAK game that will probably end 2-1. I personally am going to stay away from ANY TB games till their bats are consistently HOT. Betting on two HOT teams is the way to go. The worst thing I've have bet on with this method is relying on one side to hopefully hit the others pitcher because the other side only put 2-3 run up a game avg.

I'm not sure how to go about how to post plays, I wouldn't mind alittle moral support and don't really care about speculation. I just feel that they way I go about picking a game changes when I make it public, I'm not sure if it makes me side with the OBVIOUS public play or if I try to go too big. Maybe a collaboration with someone like UMD to make it more stable would help, I don't know.

To the question on that it must have taken awhile to build off of 100 bucks. Not really, if you think about it, two plays a night and going all in each play.

[Vinnie Paz]

I aint got much in 1 of my accounts. May give er a go
Jays yanks tmrw, jays ml @ +162 yanks rl @ +105
Using your dutch calc even with a grand would only turn $150 profit.

[killawookie]

I aint got much in 1 of my accounts. May give er a go
Jays yanks tmrw, jays ml @ +162 yanks rl @ +105
Using your dutch calc even with a grand would only turn $150 profit.

Sound about right with those odds... however the ONLY way you lose if is Ray win by 1.. possible.. but thats only ONE specific outcome

[PMcG012]

Using the Jays/NYY as an example, wouldn't this game really only be profitable if the Jays won? With NYY RL odds at +105 you only make a $5 dollar profit even if you bet $100. It seems to be more effective when betting big RL odds, like +150 and up.

Wookie, when you do this are you betting both RLs or the underdog ML and favourite's RL?

[Vinnie Paz]

Pmcg i was using dutch calculator that wookie linked which is like his example above.
So with $100 lets say its split up between both games

Jays ml @ +162 bet 43.9
Yanks rl @+105 bet 56.1

Return of 115.01. If yanks win by 1 only bets toast. Like i said before seems kinda steep to pay for real minimal gain with still a chance to lose.

[nrok2118]

Alright Im bumping this back up. So it appears if I play for the middle of both RLs I can average at least +160. So im risking 2 units to win .6. So according to my math you need to hit 77% to break even. Now I just broke down the first half of this season, and than last season (by half) for some ballparks. Figured the average top runs scored ballparks would yield the best odds for multiple run games. Now I did Coors, Fenway, Yankees, and Texas stadiums.

2012 First Half

Coors - 35-8 81%
Fenway - 40-6 87%
Yankees - 31-10 75.6%
Rangers - 34-11 75.5%


2011 Second Half

Coors - 27-11 71%
Fenway - 27-9 75%
Yankees - 26-6 81%
Rangers - 26-6 81%


2011 First Half

Coors - 35-9 79.5%
Fenway - 34-11 75.5%
Yankees - 35-15 70%
Rangers - 40-9 81.6%


Total 390-111 77.8%

Now I gathered these numbers before I did the math of needing 77% to break even. So you can see these fukkin books got it right. So Im not going to blindly start playing both sides yet, but I do want to look farther back, and look at streaks. Maybe it would be profitable to chase loses, problem is the second bet (first chase) is going to need over 8 units risked. Doesnt look like free money, but im going to continue looking into it

[killawookie]

I get the statistics that show you need to hit at a clip of 75% or higher.. however when you are flat betting the same team EVERY ONE of their games, you are going to lose as teams loses and go into slumps. Yankees and Rangers aren't having double digits game every game but they usually light it up more often than teams like SF or TB.

IF you raise your bet size according to favorable spots and lower them in more mediorce ones .. you will profit more rather then a gradual climb that comes along with flat betting. Half the fun is stepping up bets and also who to bet on.

Here is an example of a bet I'd place for tonight...

	7/16/12 6:57pm	$162.61	$187.00	Pending	7/16/12 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 916 New York Yankees -1½ +115*vs Toronto Blue Jays (H Alvarez - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)
	7/16/12 6:57pm	$85.00	$199.75	Pending	7/16/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 915 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +235*vs New York Yankees (H Alvarez - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)
Totals:		$247.61	$386.75

[killawookie]

Looks like I was on the correct half

[swordsandtequila]

Interesting

[UMD-Scientist]

Like many have now stated the profit lies in picking your spots. Because I skipped out on a good amount of likely close games my hit percentage is closer to 87% rather than 75%. The first night i posted this was a brutal start with Seattle scoring 2 in the bottom of the 9th but Felix came back with a nice +215 winner the next day and I am once again in the profit after the LAA NYY series. Just don't have time to post all my games with effin summer classes.

[broadway6]

Would have lost a fortune in the Oakland series. 4 games won by 1 run.

[rumnblack]

Would have lost a fortune in the Oakland series. 4 games won by 1 run.

Ditto