Vogelsong tomorrow?

EVPlus · 06-30-12, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by JMon

The guys is deadly at home. Since May of last year, the Giants are 13-0 on the under and 10-3 SU when he starts at home following a game that he started and the Giants won. This year the Giants are 5-0 SU and 5-0 on the under in this situation.

Average total is 7.0 (-2.5 rpg) and average ML is -121 (1 rpg).

Thoughts?

I misread game 2 with Cain and lost a unit to show for it. So keep that in mind when you read my opinions.

When I did a post mortem of that game, the angle that I did not give enough weight to was just how pissed off the Reds must have been when they got shut out. Imagine knowing that your bagel set the other team's shut out record. Also, I read that Bumgarner's post-game interview was interrupted when a team mate sprayed beer and shaving cream on him.

The Giants were too relaxed going into the game with Cain on the mound.

The Reds wanted their pound of flesh. And this is a team that actually can channel their anger into wins.

Now the Reds took two straight. What's more impressive is that Latos (unless I'm mistaken) pitched for the Padres and the Giants should have known him well. It really didn't matter as he did an excellent job. Zito was the surprise of the day for me.

Arroyo was headed for a possible no hitter in his last game. Not only did that evaporate, he ended up with a no-contest. He was quoted, "I'd rather have a win tagged by the side of my name." I think he wants a win pretty badly. But keep in mind that he gets the least amount of run support and Votto is questionable for tomorrow. Even if he does play, how will his knee hold up? His possible replacement, Cairo, is .140 for the season.

Voglesong does have impressive stats at home. And he may see tomorrow's game as a chance to shine. I don't know what the dynamic in the Giants club house is. But my guess is that the other starting pitchers are both happy for Cain and somewhat jealous. Cain pitched the first perfect game in franchise history. Cain was recently given the keys to the city. He just signed a juicy extension.

And now that the Reds popped Cain's cherry Friday night, what better chance for someone else to make the statement that he isn't the only talented pitcher on the team...? Could this also help to explain why Zito actually pitched well today? This was the angle that kept me off today's game and it ended up being decided by 1 run.

So that will be, IMO, Voglesong's motivation going into tomorrow's game. Oh yeah, there that "let's at least tie the series and keep our spot in the standings" deal. I also suspect that the Giants will go back to playing that fundamentally sound baseball that chips away at their opponent.

Based on the trends, the Under looks inviting but you still have to check the wind at game time. And of course, even the strongest trend will reverse at some point.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
Under is 7-1 in Arroyos last 8 starts vs. Giants.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Over is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 during game 4 of a series.

Under is 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 road with Iassogna behind home plate. Under is 5-0 in Arroyos last 5 starts with Iassogna behind home plate.
Under is 6-1 in Iassognas last 7 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Under is 9-2 in Iassognas last 11 games behind home plate.

Over is 3-0-1 in Iassognas last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.

As for who will win, I cannot find an angle that I like. The Reds anger has been softened by the two wins. They no doubt still want the win but I don't think they will be in the rage they were with the Cain match up.

The Giants realize that wins aren't going to flow in automatically. After his shut out, Bumgarner's interview was interrupted when a team mate doused him with shaving cream and beer...how's that for premature celebration? Hey a55holes - you still have a few games left in the series.

So there's my opinion. Small lean on the under and a smaller lean on Giants (I think there's a higher chance that Arroyo will regress between the two starters). The only strong lean that I'm going to devote the rest of night on is wnba Sea +9.5.

BOL.

JMon · 07-01-12, 12:08 AM

Damn dude...under it is!

EVPlus · 07-01-12, 12:11 AM

It's just a lean for me. I doubt I'll have any mlb action tomorrow. You still have to check weather, other stats/trends, etc. BOL.

newbottles · 07-01-12, 01:11 AM

EV I really appreciate seeing this type of extensive analysis of a matchup. It is helpful as I am still new and trying to figure out how to handicap this wacky game. Thank you.

lunchbawks · 07-01-12, 01:41 AM

ill take cinci if anything.. arroyo is good, giants are an easy job sunday.. better offense, better team (?) in Cinci

only positive here for SF is song throwing 7+ innings. reds can make sure that doesn't happen

face · 07-01-12, 01:50 AM

Arroyo is very good this year, line makes no sense except that vogler never f'king loses; so I guess it does make sense. Am done trying to fade this guy, good luck. Will try the under

2daBank · 07-01-12, 02:13 AM

played cincy 1st 3 gms..think ill take my ball and go home...case can be made for either side but gun to head id take the plus money....gl everyone

Avenger · 07-01-12, 02:30 AM

EVPlus, thanks for the writeup, love reading your writeups. Tried giving you coins, but SBR won't let me, think it's because I gave you some a few days ago.

Loving Giants tomorrow. Let's get this!

sportsguy04 · 07-01-12, 02:35 AM

Ill take the Under again. For the majority both bullpens well rested (especially the reds, since they have had 2 complete games in a row.). This ball park is perfect for Arroyo, he gets alot of fly balls which helps him with this deep outfield and California Air. I see a 3-2 game either way.

Sawyer · 07-01-12, 07:01 AM

Giants win in a low scoring game.