Ignorant Canadian's Attempt to Profit off Baseball

[paulx441]

Preface: I know nothing about baseball. Squat. I have literally met "superstars" like Granderson and did not know who he was, what he did, or if he was any good. However, I feel like this gives me an edge. I normally bet basketball, F1 and soccer also because I know nothing of it and am doing pretty well. I tried to cap hockey and got crushed. So applying that same logic, and the fact that everything else is done, I'm going to try my hand at baseball.

I'll be primarily using Betfair as I can set the odds I like and if they don't hit I just won't play.

Today's pick:

Oakland over Texas. Odds are 2.72. Huge public backing on Texas plus shady line movements in Oakland's favour means I'm going with Oakland tonight.

I'm also liking the Under on the Seattle game but not going to do too much on my first day.

[paulx441]

Hmmm, thought I had the Oakland one but guess not. I ended up taking the Seattle line (only because I thought I had the Oakland one) so won't count it.

0-1 to start...

Oh well, moving on. Not liking too many games today. Might not get any action at the lines I currently set but... I like Tampa to beat Detroit, and the Over in Philly and Miami.

[paulx441]

Nice recovery last night. Phillies get the over in the 9th and Rays were never losing.

Now 1-1 on ML. 2-0 on Over/Unders

With a lot of games today, it's surprising that I don't see many good picks. My model says Atlanta but the payout isn't good enough for me to risk it against the Nationals ace. Over/Unders are the same... the only play I'd make is the Under in San Fran. Maybe more people pay attention on weekends, I don't know, didn't see a lot of value from an ignorant baseball viewer's point of view. So personally, no action as of right now, but if you need the money for food/rent, take ATL and Under in SF.

[paulx441]

Weekend betting is no fun. I'm keeping my money in soccer today. Overall picks are 2-1 in ML and 3-0 in O/U.

If you have to bet today and hate Euro Finals, then I'd take the Under in Tampa, and Arizona to beat Milwaukee.

[paulx441]

Well looks like I got SUPER lucky in the O/U and unlucky in the ML. I think some kind of ridiculous wild pitch sequence let a guy go from 1st to home. I don't know, oh well that's Sports Betting for you. Either way now 2-2 in ML and 4-0 in O/U.

Thought I posted today already but guess I didn't. Ooops. My original picks were the Rockies for ML and Over/Under I'm liking the Under in Seattle... kind of late now oops. Too much Canada Day celebration. Will make sure picks come out first tomorrow.

[paulx441]

Rough night last night... dropping down to 2-3 ML and 4-1 in the O/U.

ML record is too similar to the Blue Jays. ugh. Let's get it back tonight. ML wise, I'm backing Tampa Bay. The pitcher's name is Shields. Playing at home. Shady line movements, that's a baseball triple play if you ask me.

O/U wise I didn't see a lot of good picks, but if I had to pick one it's the Over in Dodgers stadium.

[paulx441]

Happy America Day to the Americans viewing this. Bunch of early games today so thought I'd get the picks in earlier.

almost/broke even last night (depending on your juice and when you picked up Shields). Now 3-3 ML and 4-2 O/U. Let's go for the 2-0 tonight. ML wise I'm liking the Milwaukee at home in the 4pm game. O/U I'm taking under in Seattle.

[paulx441]

Yikes split decision again. MIL blowing a 5-1 lead... at least Seattle was inept enough to keep it under.

3-4 ML, 5-2 O/U.

Might just take a vacation if I keep sucking at this ML business... Let's go for broke and hammer the Under in Cleveland and Baltimore over the Angels.

[paulx441]

Another split night and the ML hole gets bigger... Orioles blowing it... 3-5 ML and 6-2 O/U.

Let's try to reverse the ML losing streak with a bet backing SD to win and the Under in Detroit.

Good luck to everyone, picks may not be coming in daily anymore as things get busier and if profitability remains break-even/low I may have to redivert funds to soccer for the remainder of summer. Although I would prefer to do both since then I can be betting on soccer during the morning/day and then baseball at night.