Long time stat nerd putting it to use

Vjbrindisi · 06-26-12, 10:47 PM

I went 3-1 (took braves straight up and pushed cubs over 8) Found out 20-30 MPH winds blowing out and had to go G-men with magicdiceflow and over 3 team total.

Vjbrindisi · 06-27-12, 10:34 AM

6/26 4-2
Should stuck with my late game leans. o well

6/27
Early games
Red Sox - Jays Under 10
Lester and Romero battled to a 3-1 gem first time around
Twins - White sox
Sale (teams best pitcher) vs Blackburn (teams worst pitcher).
Yankees - Indians
Indians rock a lefty heavy lineup causing them to have a putrid record against lefties. Ride the Yankees train as I expect

Get it in early!
Colorado - Washington Under 11
Line will move to 10 by game time. This is way too high with Zimmerman on the mound and a lefty on the mound for the rockies (washington struggles against lefties)

Late game leans
San Fran - Dodgers
Lincecum is back. Mark my Words. Dodgers hitting stinks. Mark my words.

Orioles - Angels
Outside of one road start against the powerful Rangers. Weaver has a miniscule ERA. Take it, especially since Trout hasn't had his prototypical terrorizing game we have grown accustomed to. PLUS,Orioles offense isn't the same without Nick the Stick Markakis in the lineup.

Vjbrindisi · 06-27-12, 11:05 AM

No score 1st inning:
Top 1st: Anemic without Braun in lineup
Bottom 1st: Greinke has pitched really well as of late

Vjbrindisi · 06-27-12, 02:26 PM

Definitely smacking my money on Tiny Tim. He regains his 'swagger' back today.

Vjbrindisi · 06-27-12, 05:07 PM

4-1 today so far contingent on San Fran closing out the final 6 outs.

Ump in Boston was pinching the strike zone all day which caused that game to get out of control.

Tonight
I already had my under 11 for nationals game. Can't believe it hasn't dipped. I'm going Zimmerman and the Nationals as well as I double up that game. He was a stud in both games against Colorado last year.

As for the Angels - Orioles game. I loved Weaver and the Angels. But the stats that have crossed me today screaming pitchers duel and a fluke win for one of the sides. So with that I'm thinking under 7.5. I'm waiting until gametime though as I'm praying the line pushes to 8 due to the late betters pushing the over right now.

Carl 1326 · 06-27-12, 05:35 PM

Vj, i kinda like tha way U think! Weel see what tha long term brings.
Carl

Dom177 · 06-27-12, 05:50 PM

Really like the u11 in the Nats game. Still hasnt dropped yet but I dont see how the Nats hit like they did again last night even against someone who hasnt pitched this year yet. Plus Zimmerman has had some real solid numbers so far this year.

Vjbrindisi · 06-28-12, 02:08 PM

6/26 4-2
6/27 6-2
Ended up staying away from under 7.5 for Angels game because it never moved up. Thank goodness. I went with my early thinking that that Trout would terrorize.

1PM
I went with Pirates because Chooch and Utley out. They accounted for 5 of the 10 hits. Plus Kendrick on the mound. Being a Philly fan, you know that he is due for a clunker 75% of the time. Looking good so far.

3 PM
I said I was done with over/unders after they were my only losses yesterday. But this screams over with Rockies pitching fully sapped the first 2 games of the series and that bogus 75 pitch count they are on. Plus, even though Edwin Jackson has been great this year, his last start in Colorado resulted in 10 runs in 2.3 innings.

Keynote: Harrold Reynolds talked to Huston Street recently and he asked what's the difference between pitching in Colorado from anywhere else. He said you don't recover as quickly due to the thin air. Smack it.

7PM
Yankees - White Sox (Nova vs Axelrod)
Nova is scorching. Axelrod cracks under the pressure of the brights lights of New York. White Sox bats have been cold save for yesterday's blowout against Minnesota's worst starter.

Indians - Orioles (Chen vs McAllister)
Indians are putrid against lefties. Orioles hitting is nonexistent. I know, I know. I'm going under when I said I wouldn't do it anymore. Stats are screaming to me though. I'm a sucker for punishment

10PM
Boston - Seattle (Morales vs King Felix)
I'm fading the Mariners. Much like the Dodgers, they are struggling to hit the ball. BoSox have won 10 of 12. They are grinding up pitchers scoring more than 4 runs in 11 of 12 games. Morales is filthy. Wouldn't be surprised if he K'd an inning tonight. Felix is a great pitcher, but he benefits from pitching in Safeco.

Mets - Dodgers (Young - Capuano)
Mets have an underrated lineup. They grind on ya. Main reason they have scored the most runs in the league with 2 outs. Ethier out. Fade away on the Dodgers.

Go Italy! Balotelli!!!!!!!!!!

BamaCBass · 06-28-12, 03:28 PM

Impressive man. Keep it up!

Frank-King · 06-28-12, 03:44 PM

Good stuff Vj I like the way you think

Vjbrindisi · 06-28-12, 03:47 PM

2 early hits means I have cushion to play some more with the later games. Jeff Grant had some great info from his Stat of the Day thread (link below). I'm following him on his two leans. Reds and Cabrera TB over Upton TB.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1784088-thursdays-mlb-stat-day-6-28-a.html

balls2wall · 06-28-12, 05:28 PM

looks like you are off to a nice start

keep it up

Vjbrindisi · 06-29-12, 12:38 PM

6/26 4-2
6/27 6-2
6/28 4-3 (more like 4-4 with Yanks costing extra juice)
Two 9th inning losses. That's baseball for ya.

2PM
Cubs - Astros
Small plays to peak my interest. I have no 1st inning run, Astros to score first and Norris to have more 1st inning strikeouts

7PM
Indians – Orioles (Lowe v Arrieta)
Over 9.5. East coast heat wave. Hop on the overs. Arrietta has a career 8 ERA against Cleveland. I’m expecting a romparound.

Angels – Blue Jays (Santana v Villanueva)
Over 9.5. Both teams swinging hot bats. Trout’s aggressiveness makes this team really dynamic. On top of Trout, Pujols, and Trumbo, Kendrick and Callaspo have been swinging underrated bats causing for this to be a scary team to play against. I’m debating going Angels in this one as well.
Sidenote: tempted to double down on Angels.

Rays – Tigers (Verlander v Price)
Under 6.5 Two studs. Dome to protect them from the heat. Rays scrappy lineup. Tigers power line up.
Sidenote: tempted to triple down on Tigers & no 1^st inning run.

8PM Parlay
Too much juice here. 2 game parlay:

Rangers -1.5 v Athletics (Harrison v Griffin)

Harrison has been electric. He is 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Oakland is hitting .217 against lefties. I know. The juice is tough to give up. But I’ve been burned by way too many run lines on fluky plays.

Cardinals -1.5 v Pirates (Wainwright v Correia)

Huge divisional game. I expect Beltran and Holliday to go off. Pirates eeked out a split with the lowly Phillies.

10PM
Mets – Dodgers (Dickey v Harang)
Free money: Dickey goes from pitching against the best hitting team to the worst hitting team. Harang has a 6.05 ERA against the Mets.

Giants – Reds (Cain v Leake)
Giants have 4 straight shutouts. I’m tailing them now because Melkman and Posey looked absolutely possessed at the plate last night. They are two of the toughest outs in baseball. They singlehandedly won last night’s game. P.S. Cain is on the mound tonight...you know...that guy that pitched a perfect game.

Mariners – Sox (Noesi v Cook)
Finally the vice grips of Felix are off. Boston has been one of the hottest teams in June. I don’t expect a drop off because of one gem by King Felix

EVPlus · 06-29-12, 01:00 PM

I've been following your thread. First, congrats on the winning plays. How much do situational angles factor in on your decision? Or do yo rely primarily on numbers?

Thanks.

Vjbrindisi · 06-29-12, 02:15 PM

I dont know if im answering this correctly, but i realy heavily on stats with a mix of recent trends swaying me for certain pitchers (3 games, level of competition, etc) and hitters (7 games, level of competition, etc). The key is always to find the teams that are about to break out (tigers now, angels a few weeks ago) and ones that are about to cool off due to certain situations (dodgers now, braves a few weeks back)

bfour · 06-29-12, 03:27 PM

Do you generally flat bet or do you put different amounts?