Public on Tampa, Sharps on Tampa, Money on tampa

[remeedella]

tired of hearing KC value plays, Theres no value on losing plays but I can't speak until a games over

[Delicious]

Tampa dropped from -130 to -103 at some places.. The value is gone on the KC side. Thread is confusing

[remeedella]

its fine that its been moving all over the place all day, one of the harder games to pickup for the day. Uhmm Ive only ever seen it get worse for tampa, go back to even and drop again for tampa. 80% on tampa public, dropped to 79% throughout a long span of the day but will probably go back up.
If you keep watching your sportsbooks line and thinking the public is moving with that line you'll be surely wrong.

[Delicious]

but you said public and sharps on tampa. Still confused.

[vaas187]

tired of hearing KC value plays, Theres no value on losing plays but I can't speak until a games over

So Don't speak.

[vaas187]

Look at how dumb it sounds now. 7-0 kc

I guess I was on the sharp play

[MagicDiceFlow]

KC was the easiest play on the board. All factors were pointing to KC all the way. Playing on line moves on a non public game is a losing cause.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yeah I started a thread on this game earlier and was gonna play KC but pu**ed out

[EVPlus]

KC was the easiest play on the board. All factors were pointing to KC all the way. Playing on line moves on a non public game is a losing cause.

I've read your posts and first I want to say I have a great deal of respect for your capping skills.

However, the OP did not look at the complete line movement or mis-read it. It was the line movement on Tampa/KC between about 6am to 1030am eastern that made this a pass for me. Another factor was that Tampa played a double yesterday.

Line movement for the White Sox/Twins game told me to stay away from Chicago today as well. I stated so just after the game started in your White Sox thread today.

I agree that line movements aren't everything. Sometimes they're just white noise. But there are times when they can make the difference between clicking "submit" and saying "pass." Post #5 here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1780934-white-sox-backers-check.html

Another example is yesterday's game between Giants/A's. In my post, I gave reasons why I was leaning Giants but decided to pass. One of those reasons was a suspicious line movement that bothered me (as well as other factors such as the rivalry between the two teams). Post #10 here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1779404-you-looking-fade-matt-cain.html

I'll say again that I have a great deal of respect for your capping skills. However, I cannot ignore the empirical evidence in these and other examples that judicious reading of line movements can be a valuable tool.

BTW, BOL on the White Sox play.

[MagicDiceFlow]

EVPlus, it's good that you're careful/prudent and take in all factors, those are good traits for a successful capper. It can save you from that losing game which turns into an unprofitable day. You are correct when saying there are times when movements can make a difference. However those games are very few and far between. It certainly wasnt the KC game tonight. I believe that brief line move on Tampa was due to a patch of Tampa backers thinking Hochevar will get shelled tonight. However, no matter how bad you might think he is, the overwhelming factors against Tampa made this an easy KC play.

The main factor that made it a bet for me was something that no one talked about ....KC was mad as hell getting swept over the weekend by the Cards.

[EVPlus]

^^^Thanks for your input. I'm honest when I say I'll consider your line of thought on this. BOL and look forward to your future plays.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I have a feeling you're going to be, if not already, a solid capper EV. BOL on your plays as well.