Value in Royals??

[R.P. McMurphy]

I realize K.C. is a pretty bad ball club and even worse at home. However Tampa just coming off a double header which they swept and probably riding on cloud 9 last night as a result. Mix that with traveling halfway across the country to face an awaiting Royals team that just got embarrassed the last 3 games at home and I think we may have something. Hochevar has been real solid his last couple outings and K.C. does have some bats and can generate 4-5 runs pretty consistently. Any thoughts on this game or teams coming off double headers, then traveling??

[Jeff Grant]

I realize K.C. is a pretty bad ball club and even worse at home. However Tampa just coming off a double header which they swept and probably riding on cloud 9 last night as a result. Mix that with traveling halfway across the country to face an awaiting Royals team that just got embarrassed the last 3 games at home and I think we may have something. Hochevar has been real solid his last couple outings and K.C. does have some bats and can generate 4-5 runs pretty consistently. Any thoughts on this game or teams coming off double headers, then traveling??

Hochevar may have a 1-2 record and 7.42 ERA in six starts versus Tampa Bay, but he's gone 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in three starts in the series at Kaufmann Stadium

Just have to look past his 0-4 mark and 8.59 ERA in six home starts in 2012

[R.P. McMurphy]

I hear you Jeff he has been a little better in his last couple starts as well. I usually don't pay much attention to history from years past as it usually has little impact on current day rosters, or how a team is playing at the moment. I realize the Rays are way beyond K.C. right now. My main angle is how teams follow up double headers ecs. after a long trip. On the flip side Cobb has been doing very well as of late.. maybe un 9 is the better play or lay off this game completely. Thanks for the input Chief!

[MagicDiceFlow]

Weather will be hot and humid again like yesterday. Also wind is blowing slightly out about 10-15mph. Those conditions are prime for an over especially at Kaufmann stadium. Be careful on the under.

[EVPlus]

I hear you Jeff he has been a little better in his last couple starts as well. I usually don't pay much attention to history from years past as it usually has little impact on current day rosters, or how a team is playing at the moment. I realize the Rays are way beyond K.C. right now. My main angle is how teams follow up double headers ecs. after a long trip. On the flip side Cobb has been doing very well as of late.. maybe un 9 is the better play or lay off this game completely. Thanks for the input Chief!

If you have any specific websites that you get your double-header stats from, I'd appreciate it. I made an earlier thread on this subject but got zero response.

I capped this game early this morning and FWIW my advice is to pass.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yeah you are right MDF I was mainly looking for an angle for a side. I'm getting K.C. at -110 here so obviously the value is probably gone. My gut says K.C. takes this but normally they would be at + money in this matchup so the books have obviously taken the double header into consideration with this line. Gonna lay off this probably I have 3-4 other plays I will post shortly.

[MagicDiceFlow]

There's better value on KC. I would take KC straight up or the KC over 4 team total. They might hit that number by the 5th inning if the weather holds up like it has past few days.

[sbfk]

My motto is : Always bet against Luke Hochevar.

The guy will give up a ton of runs.

[JMon]

Teams coming off a double header playing the road are 90-117 since '04 in their next game. Teams coming off a double header on the road and are playing on the road are 73-103 since '04 in their next game (Rays are 5-4 since 2004 in this spot). Recent wins include Price over Lackey 4-0 on Aug. 17 2011 and Moore over Colon 15-8 on Sept. 22, 2011.

Small angle on the fade here.

[R.P. McMurphy]

I did some digging EVPlus and came up with nothing myself.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Good info JMon decided to probably lay off this one though. GL to anyone who plays it!

[EVPlus]

I did some digging EVPlus and came up with nothing myself.

Thanks just the same. Will resort to my friends google + coffee.

[NYSportsGuy210]

OVER is the play here.

[remeedella]

i think tampa only -103. Both negative, is a huge play

[CHAZ]

Weather will be hot and humid again like yesterday. Also wind is blowing slightly out about 10-15mph. Those conditions are prime for an over especially at Kaufmann stadium. Be careful on the under.

Wind is blowing IN not out.....

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/hometeam/Kansas_City:Royals.html?st=1340655000

[MagicDiceFlow]

Rotoinfo was showing it blowing out to left field :

http://www.rotoinfo.com/?game=weather#news_menus

[CHAZ]

Rotoinfo was showing it blowing out to left field :

http://www.rotoinfo.com/?game=weather#news_menus

I think I'd go with TWC before anyone.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/hourbyhour/64129?begHour=15&begDay=177&from=hrly_graph_tab

Winds blowing from the East/North east and you can see on google map which way the field is facing.

[russiaboss]

On KC +104
GL

[MagicDiceFlow]

You could be right Chaz. I would check it right before game time. Kaufmann stadium has volatile wind that can change throughout the day.

[orlandoisme]

This is the hardest play of the day imo

I'm leaning Royals... but they're atrocious at home... I might stay away

[EVPlus]

For all you folks who are placing a wager on the Royals based on the "double-header-fade" angle, here is some food for thought:

In the last 24 hours, Tampa bp used 3 pitchers for 48 pitches.
In the last 24 hours, KC bp used 5 pitchers for 92 pitches.
In the last 72 hours, Tampa bp used 6 pitchers for 108 pitches.
In the last 72 hours, KC bp used 9 pitchers for 213 pitches.

********************

Tampa 22-16 after a win.
KC 16-22 after a loss. Also 4-10 after 3 or more consecutive losses.
Tampa 13-8 when playing a team with losing record.
KC 14-20 when playing a team with winning record.

********************

Tampa 19-17 in road games.
KC 11-23 home games.

********************

Tampa 25-20 night games.
KC 20-25 night games.

********************

Tampa 29-18 against righties.
KC 23-28 against righties.

********************

Tampa 5-3 when priced between -100 and -125.
KC 2-10 when priced between +100 and +125.

********************
Cobb Road Stats: 3.75 ERA; 1.083 WHIP
Hochevar Home Stats: 8.59 ERA; 1.534 WHIP

Cobb All Stats: 3.82 ERA; 1.168 WHIP
Hochevar All Stats: 5.65 ERA; 1.462 WHIP

Cobb Last 3 Stats: 3.92 ERA; 0.919 WHIP
Hochevar Last 3 Stats: 3.00 ERA; 1.238 WHIP

[pattymayo]

If there's any team that will play great after a double header and traveling its those pesky Rays.


Tough game

[EVPlus]

^^^And thus my lean on Rays but no play. BOL to those who wager on this one.

[hundredbombs]

That's the thing about the Rays, they can get hits/runs out of anyone in the lineup.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Royals about to hit Over Team Total 4 that I mentioned about earlier......barely into the 3rd inning.