Friday MLB Insider Report - 6/22

[Jeff Grant]

Thursday MLB Recap
-Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki had surgery on his left groin to remove scar tissue and will miss at least six weeks
-Oakland won for the eighth time in nine games, holding the NL’s best team to eight total hits in the three-game series
-OF Josh Reddick got the day off, mired in an 0-for-19 slump
-Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 12 home games, while winning seven of its past eight series, including four consecutive at PNC Park
-The Marlins owned a lead in all three losses to the Red Sox, while they’ve dropped 13 of their last 15 games overall
-Boston is 24-14 since May 11, baseball’s third-best record in that span

[Jeff Grant]

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Tampa Bay is 9-14 against left-handed starters, which is the eighth-worst mark in the majors
-The Rays are hitting .225 against lefties overall, including a .183 mark in June
-Philadelphia SP Cliff Lee has received a run support average of 2.90 this year, which is the third-lowest mark in the majors
-The Rays are 10-3 in the last 13 regular-season matchups in this series
-Since posting a season-best four straight wins at home from May 13-18, the Phillies are 4-11 at CBP
-Rays SP James Shields is 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 25 interleague appearances (24 starts)
-The Rays are 5-10 as a road underdog of +100 to +125
-The Phillies are 6-4 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 (6-4 over)


Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Pirates SP A.J. Burnett is 6-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last eight starts
-In 10 starts against the Tigers, Burnett has gone 6-2 with a 5.47 ERA
-Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen is 11 for 21 with five RBIs over the last five games
-Tigers 1B Prince Fielder has hit 28 HRs against the Pirates in his career, his most against any team
-The Pirates have won 11 of their last 15 interleague home games, outscoring opponents by a 73-41 margin over that span (2.33 ERA)
-Pittsburgh’s pitching staff ranks first in the majors with a 2.33 ERA at home
-Pirates offense has scored 92 runs in June, ranking third in the NL over that span, behind the Reds (96) and Diamondbacks (95)
-Burnett is 21-11 with a 3.63 ERA in 40 career interleague starts, leading all active pitchers with six complete games
-Tigers SP Doug Fister is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in five career interleague starts.
-Fister has received just 3.12 runs of support per nine innings this season
-The Tigers are 4-5 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 (6-3 under)
-The Pirates are 9-6 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 (9-5 under)

[pacocn]

Jeff, is the background behind you Big Dume?

[Jeff Grant]

Jeff, is the background behind you Big Dume?

Hey Pacocn,

It's one of the beaches in my hometown of Dana Point, CA

[Jeff Grant]

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Orioles SP Jason Hammel is 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA in six starts against the Nationals, allowing four runs over 5.1 innings of a 6-5 victory May 19
-Baltimore is hitting just .159 in dropping four of its last six games
-Nationals SP Jordan Zimmerman has a 1.62 ERA in five interleague outings on the road
-Washington’s staff leads the majors with a 3.05 ERA
-In 27 games dating back to May 20, Nationals OF Bryce Harper is hitting .327 with five HRs and 15 RBI
-Zimmerman is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA in three starts against the Orioles, with all three games being decided by two runs or less
-Baltimore closer Jim Johnson is the all-time interleague ERA leader (0.66)
-Hammel is 7-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 13 career interleague starts
-The Nationals are 3-3 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 (4-2 over)
-The Orioles are 7-2 after an off day (7-2 over)


New York Yankees at New York Mets (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-The Yankees have won seven of eight against the Mets, including a three-game sweep from June 8-10
-Yankees are batting .218 with RISP this season
-Yankees SP Andy Pettitte is 8-5 with a 3.66 ERA in his career against the Mets
-Mets SP Jonathon Niese is 3-1 with a 1.25 ERA over his last four home starts
-Mets starting pitchers have a 2.98 ERA in their last 12 home games
-The Yankees are 18-5 in their last 23 interleague games
-Mets 3B David Wright is batting .366 during a current 11-game hit streak
-The Mets are 7-5 versus AL opponents in 2012
-The Yankees are 5-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 (6-4 under)
-The Mets are 2-3 as a home underdog of +125 to +150 (3-2 under)

Read more about the 2012 Subway Series at Citi Field


Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Boston has won seven of its last eight games, with DH David Ortiz hitting .375 with four HRs and 11 RBIs over that span
-Braves OF Jason Heyward is batting .400 over the course of his current seven-game hit streak
-Atlanta SP Jair Jurrjens is 3-1 with a 1.34 ERA in eight career interleague starts, but 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in two starts versus Boston in 2009
-Red Sox SP Jon Lester is 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 11 starts against the NL East, which is the second-lowest ERA among AL starters in that situation
-The Braves are 8-1 when playing on Friday, and 5-1 when playing with a day off
-The Red Sox are 19-14 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last two-plus seasons

Read my SBR forum article on this contest

[Jeff Grant]

Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Toronto hit .294 with 10 HRs and 19 runs scored against the Milwaukee Brewers, but still dropped two of three due to the starting staff posting a 13.97 ERA in the series
-Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista has hit 10 of his team-leading 22 HRs over the past 17 games
-Toronto’s offense has provided SP Ricky Romero with 9.78 runs per game of support over his last four starts (2-0, 5.48 ERA over that span)
-Romero is 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 12 career interleague starts, but has never faced the Marlins
-The Blue Jays are 4-17 all-time against the Marlins, having lost eight in a row
-Toronto is one of only two MLB teams (Yankees) to hit at least 100 HRs this year
-The Blue Jays are 4-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +125
-The Marlins are 11-11 versus left-handed starters (15-7 over)

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Chicago has not won a road series outside of the Windy City (White Sox) this year
-The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 11 home games, scoring 30 runs and collecting 41 hits in taking two of three against the Mariners
-Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano is batting .382 with 12 HRs and 25 RBIs over his last 16 games against the Diamondbacks
-The Cubs are collectively batting .218 against left-handed pitchers this year, lowest mark in the NL and 29th in the majors (3-15 record vs. LH starters)
-Chicago SP Jeff Samardzija is 1-4 with a 5.50 ERA in his last six outings
-Arizona SP Joe Saunders is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in two career starts versus the Cubs
-The Cubs are 0-4 after getting shutout this season (3-1 under)
-The Diamondbacks are 4-4 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season (25-9 since 2010)


Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Reds SP Homer Bailey is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA at home, allowing nine HRs in 33.2 innings
-Bailey is 1-3 with a 4.72 ERA in six interleague starts, with the Reds dropping five of those contests
-Minnesota SP Nick Blackburn is 1-4 with a 10.57 ERA in his last seven interleague starts
-Cincinnati has averaged 5.7 runs and hit .300 in nine games at GABP this month
-The Twins are batting a Major League-best .289 in interleague play this season
-Blackburn has allowed 14 runs on 21 hits in the first inning this season, allowing a run in the first frame in seven of his 10 starts
-Reds 1B Joey Votto is hitting .439 over his last 30 games
-The Twins are 5-3 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season (4-3 under)
-The Reds are 4-0 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 (3-1 over)

Pick: Run to be scored in the first inning (Even)

[Jeff Grant]

Other MLB Notes (Part I)
-New York Mets are second in the majors with 22 home wins (Dodgers, 24)
-Mets starters are 28-17 with a 3.49 ERA, ranking third in the majors (Nationals, 3.05 and Dodgers, 3.13)
-In six night starts, Mets SP Jonathon Niese is 1-3 with a 6.60 ERA

-Cleveland has 10 or more hits in four straight games, one shy of a season high, while ranking 10th in the majors with a .264 average in June
-The Indians are 17-6 in series openers this season, including wins in six of the last seven
-SP Ubaldo Jimenez is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA in five starts against the Astros since 2010
-Jimenez has limited Carlos Lee to a single hit in 10 at-bats against him

-Over the last 31 games (12-19 record), Philadelphia's starting staff has gone 8-15 with a 5.22 ERA
-SP Cliff Lee is 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays
-Lee is 17-5 with a 3.36 ERA in 32 career interleague starts

-St. Louis is 5-7 in a stretch of 15 consecutive games against AL opponents
-The Cardinals lead the all-time series 39-30 against the Royals, including a 24-15 mark in Kansas City
-SP Joe Kelly has yet to record a decision in his first two starts with a 2.89 ERA (9.1 IP)
-Kelly was 2-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 12 starts at Triple-A Memphis

-Boston is 9-15 against Atlanta at Fenway Park, but has won six of the last nine such contests
-Since April 23, the bullpen leads the majors with a 2.00 ERA
-The Red Sox are 11-12 in series openers this year
-SP Jon Lester is 11-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 20 career regular-season starts against NL teams
-Lester has received 4.64 runs of support per 9.0 IP in 2012, the lowest run support of any Red Sox pitcher (min. five games)

[Jeff Grant]

Other MLB Notes (Part II)

-White Sox SP Chris Sale is 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last six starts, including 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his last three home starts
-Chicago has outscored its opponents by 33 runs, the sixth-largest differential in the majors - Rangers (+94), Yankees (+54), Cardinals (+51), Dodgers (+44) and Red Sox (+40)

-The Yankees have won seven straight road games
-New York is 14-4 in June, outscoring opponents 91-52, and out-homering teams by a 29-14 margin
-The Yankees have won 18 of their last 23 interleague games
-New York is 17-6 in series openers, including 8-4 on the road
-SP Andy Pettitte is 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 road starts against the Mets

-Oakland has allowed 10 runs on 22 hits over the first six games of the homestand for a 1.67 ERA and .124 opponents batting average
-The Athletics have won eight of their last nine interleague games, after losing five of the first six
-Lead the majors in runs scored in June (101), and extra-base hits (65)
-SP Jarrod Parker is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in three interleague starts this year

-Texas is 12-3 (.800) versus NL clubs this season, best winning percentage in interleague play this season
-In 2012, the Rangers have the second-highest batting average (.282) and lowest ERA (2.44) in interleague play
-SP Roy Oswalt was 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in four minor-league starts
-Oswalt is 11-11 with a 3.70 ERA in 30 career interleague starts, all versus AL opponents

-Brewers SP Zack Greinke is 1-7 with a 6.48 ERA in 10 career games (eight starts) at U.S. Cellular Field
-Milwaukee has lost eight of its last nine games against Chicago
-OF Ryan Braun has a 25-game hitting streak during interleague play, batting .404 with seven HRs and 29 RBIs during the streak