A few questions from a lurker and noob to baseball investing

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I come on here almost daily and read the threads intently almost never posting. There are a few things that irk me but I keep to myself tonight I realized that what I see in LV sportsbooks and often discussed betting strategies are simply never discussed here.
1. Why is no one playing the first 5?! If you are handicapping just starting pitchers. Even SBR's own John Ryan (who I do respect) often compares only the starters in his write up often ignoring the bullpens altogether. This was designed for this very purpose and of course to create more action.
2. Team Totals!- I see plenty of total plays. I handicap college football yr round and found last season in many lopsided one way point spreads that there was much more value playing ones team total over the overall game total. If Beachy is pitching tomorrow and facing a guy with a 6.7 ERA and the total is 8 and atl has a Team total of 4
-125 over dont you see that the books are tipping their cap in this situation?
3. Why is no one scalping or middling overnight lines? If nyy starts off at -125 balt +115 & the end line is nyy -147 balt +137 theres 22 cents of value without the sweat of a game in any circumstance.
4. Where are the steam bettors here? I realize don best is very expensive but youre on a site that updates every minute and shows when a team gets hit hard (it goes orange! Like look at me!) I realize this will get you banned or shortened limits in time from most shops but theres a reason why and big books arent worried about it if youre chasing steam in the 3 figure range.
5. I never see posts about finding a better price at this shop. The great thing about wagering online is having multiple books to shop at.

There are some very sharp minds on here and some decent cappers. I just dont know why these things are never discussed. Ive started a cfb thread where I was gonna post my plays but am starting to think no one will no one what im taljing about when i say i have 23 bets on clemson auburn and have no actual play. Are we all just looking to tail someone and not work on the fundementals?

[FellatioReceiver]

Steam betting is overrated.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Steam betting is overrated.

Well then use it to middle if you arent getting winners out of it. It's a process, it indicates line movement not the winner

[jlee]

I don't bet first 5 because the starters I bet on usually go 7-8 innings on a good night. Also, sometimes it's hard to know when an offense starts getting into a rhythm and gets hits and turns them into runs. This may happen in the 6th or 7th when the opposing pitcher gets tired. Consider teams like the rangers, it's like they always break open a close game in the later innings

[balls2wall]

I believe all of the things you mentioned have been discussed and are used by people here. The people you see posting the most plays may not be using them, or they may be, but that part of the equation may not be the primary reason for their pick so it is not mentioned.

I know I see first 5 inning plays all the time on here.

There isn't a whole lot of discussion about methods, but if you search hard enough it has probably been discussed at some point.

Most people don't post plays, but just come here for info and to BS. I think a high percentage of people at SBR come looking for people to tail.

can't wait for football

baseball is just something to fill the time between football seasons

[CHAZ]

Don't have the time. I would love to sit and watch lines all day. Shop different books and keep track of overnight lines. I can't. Sports betting is my hobby. Its bottom of the barrel for me. Wife, family, work all come wayyyy before it.



BUT I do wonder how much more $$$$ I would be up overall if I constantly got the best numbers.

[EXhoosier10]

I think first five and team totals are complete under utilized by cappers on this site. They have been my biggest money makers the past two years.

With regards to middling, I haven't quite figured out how to predict which way lines move. Beating the closer is usually pretty easy for me, but picking only the games that will move 10+ cents would be a different process

i think plenty of people price shop, but don't post about it.

[brahmabull117]

Don't have the time. I would love to sit and watch lines all day. Shop different books and keep track of overnight lines. I can't. Sports betting is my hobby. Its bottom of the barrel for me. Wife, family, work all come wayyyy before it.



BUT I do wonder how much more $$$$ I would be up overall if I constantly got the best numbers.

59% and up 30 units over a 200 play sample size in your spreadsheet


f*ck yea, awesome

[CHAZ]

59% and up 30 units over a 200 play sample size in your spreadsheet


f*ck yea, awesome

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I think first five and team totals are complete under utilized by cappers on this site. They have been my biggest money makers the past two years.

With regards to middling, I haven't quite figured out how to predict which way lines move. Beating the closer is usually pretty easy for me, but picking only the games that will move 10+ cents would be a different process i think plenty of people price shop,
but don't post about it.

Very nice post.
Heres some rules of thumb about trying to guess which way the market is move. Public favorites st. Louis, NYY, LAD, Philly, TEX (this season) are all huge teams in the case of a scalp this season. Whether it be systems or just peoplw betting "their" team daily theres some value in buying them early and selling them close to game time. The thing that very few people seem to understand is if a line doesnt move and you buy it reduced overnight youre almost never taking more than a 3 cent risk. It is a tedius, boring way to make a buck or two throughout the day in value.
Early line movement is almost always sharps especially on totals. Not many regular joes are looking to bet the hou-col game as soon the number is hung someone said steam betting overrated, Id have a hard time believing if you were to steam bet only totals from 5-8 pm mon-thur you would feel that way.
Same with tennis, golf, even college baseball. If the market indicates the line got hung at 635 at pinny and was -130 and at 705 is -155 for a tennis player youve never heard of good chance you have a winner more than 53% of the time.
Also when looking at overnight line movements dont always fall for RLM there are instances where the book has to simply worry abouti mddling especially in the NFL, CFL.
Hope this helped in someway, somehow.
Tc MILK