Who is Backing the Winningest Pitcher in Interleague History?

[Jeff Grant]

Miami Marlins SP Mark Buehrle has more interleague wins (24) than any pitcher, while also going 10-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last 15 starts in that situation.

Who is backing this statistic on Tuesday night?

[BennyFang]

I often wonder if interleague individual stats are very relevant or more random variance. Maybe the DH can contribute to individual trends but I doubt it is significant enough over a handful of games. You could play the unfamiliarity angle of his pitching to NL clubs in interleague to explain why he's succeeded but if so then that would play against him tonight against a team that has some familiarity with the guy. Makes me lean to the over.

[Jeff Grant]

I often wonder if interleague individual stats are very relevant or more random variance. Maybe the DH can contribute to individual trends but I doubt it is significant enough over a handful of games. You could play the unfamiliarity angle of his pitching to NL clubs in interleague to explain why he's succeeded but if so then that would play against him tonight against a team that has some familiarity with the guy. Makes me lean to the over.

It's important to note that all of Buehrle's success with this statistic came as a member of the Chicago White Sox - facing National League teams

This is his first start against an AL club in this situation (interleague)

[EVPlus]

Interesting stat. However, both Miami and Boston being where they are now in the season, this is a coin-flip game for me with a slight lean towards the sox.

[BennyFang]

It's important to note that all of Buehrle's success with this statistic came as a member of the Chicago White Sox - facing National League teams

This is his first start against an AL club in this situation (interleague)

My point exactly....over is the best play if anything.

[a4u2fear]

Interesting stat. However, both Miami and Boston being where they are now in the season, this is a coin-flip game for me with a slight lean towards the sox.

if it's a coin flip and and the odds say such, then we "should" have an edge if this trend continues.

[Jeff Grant]

if it's a coin flip and and the odds say such, then we "should" have an edge if this trend continues.

Can't argue with the price, as the Marlins have crept into underdog territory, plus David Ortiz is out of the lineup

[Redscot]

First off I appreciate the time you put into these threads daily Jeff . I am not a big trend guy admittedly, but I never discount any angle that one might be able to gain. My question is, how do you (this to anyone who follows trends) see this playing out on the field? How does this stat effectively have an influence on the game? Does Buehrle feel more confidence/mojo tonight than normal after pitching over 400 big league games? The unfamiliarity angle is out the window obviously as he spent his whole career in the AL. I give a little credence to trends in high leverage situations, ie. playoffs, elimination games because I think there are distinct psychological factors that creep in there. But the run of the mill trend numbers for the most part have 0 to little influence on the game at hand.

Honestly not trying to be a prick here, not my style, but I am curious what trend followers opinions are. How do these things really come in to play in a Big league game?

[Jeff Grant]

First off I appreciate the time you put into these threads daily Jeff . I am not a big trend guy admittedly, but I never discount any angle that one might be able to gain. My question is, how do you (this to anyone who follows trends) see this playing out on the field? How does this stat effectively have an influence on the game? Does Buehrle feel more confidence/mojo tonight than normal after pitching over 400 big league games? The unfamiliarity angle is out the window obviously as he spent his whole career in the AL. I give a little credence to trends in high leverage situations, ie. playoffs, elimination games because I think there are distinct psychological factors that creep in there. But the run of the mill trend numbers for the most part have 0 to little influence on the game at hand.

Honestly not trying to be a prick here, not my style, but I am curious what trend followers opinions are. How do these things really come in to play in a Big league game?

Agree that this statistic doesn't hold the same amount of weight now that he's pitching in the NL for the first time, but still feel it's a valuable one for the community to know

Secondly - my main approach to sports handicapping is this:

Place two teams in their respective situations

Create your own handicapper line (compare it to the betting odds)

Make a play if it has value - in comparison to your work

[EVPlus]

First off I appreciate the time you put into these threads daily Jeff . I am not a big trend guy admittedly, but I never discount any angle that one might be able to gain. My question is, how do you (this to anyone who follows trends) see this playing out on the field? How does this stat effectively have an influence on the game? Does Buehrle feel more confidence/mojo tonight than normal after pitching over 400 big league games? The unfamiliarity angle is out the window obviously as he spent his whole career in the AL. I give a little credence to trends in high leverage situations, ie. playoffs, elimination games because I think there are distinct psychological factors that creep in there. But the run of the mill trend numbers for the most part have 0 to little influence on the game at hand.

Honestly not trying to be a prick here, not my style, but I am curious what trend followers opinions are. How do these things really come in to play in a Big league game?

To me, there needs to be a confluence of trends that point towards the same direction. If there are contradictory trends, they need to be outweighed rather significantly; otherwise, a game stays just a lean for me.

Your point is well taken. Too often, people have their respective bias towards a team (hence violating a cardinal rule, which is to never bet with the heart) and will gravitate towards a particular trend that validates their bias. And, with this mistaken belief that they are being objective, they screw up. I'm having a similar problem tonight. I like Baltimore -1 but really have a personal distrust of Chen that's more subjective than I care to admit.

[Redscot]

Agree that this statistic doesn't hold the same amount of weight now that he's pitching in the NL for the first time, but still feel it's a valuable one for the community to know

Secondly - my main approach to sports handicapping is this:

Place two teams in their respective situations

Create your own handicapper line (compare it to the betting odds)

Make a play if it has value - in comparison to your work

Sounds like a recipe to success bro, which I wish you much of.

My question is genuine though to trend followers, I am more of a metrics follower and dabble in psychological elements because I can't help myself (my educational background). I pretty much throw out 90+% of trends as wholly irrelevant, and perhaps I am being too critical of them. So I am curious to any trend based bettors, how they see it actually effecting a game, I just don't see it. Again, not putting it down (it takes all kinds of approaches), looking for another perspective is all.

[Redscot]

To me, there needs to be a confluence of trends that point towards the same direction. If there are contradictory trends, they need to be outweighed rather significantly; otherwise, a game stays just a lean for me.

Your point is well taken. Too often, people have their respective bias towards a team (hence violating a cardinal rule, which is to never bet with the heart) and will gravitate towards a particular trend that validates their bias. And, with this mistaken belief that they are being objective, they screw up. I'm having a similar problem tonight. I like Baltimore -1 but really have a personal distrust of Chen that's more subjective than I care to admit.

Good points, coincidentally I like that B-more play. I should also add, not my intention to hijack this thread Jeff, it is yours, perhaps I should open another thread on the topic sometime to get some back and forth going. BOL tonight

[JMon]

Jeff, whats your peers at http://www.10starpicks.com/ say about this play?