Tuesday Picks ( 261-250 +19.90 )

[gregm]

I am watching euro 2012 today and pretty busy, no long write ups today but I really like Cueto here. Cueto has struggled a little bit in the past 5 games but he is having a fantastic year and looked sharp over his last two outings facing Pitt. These struggles have usually been on the road except for the Rockies game, he is 3-1 at home with a 3.16 ERA, 1.21 Whip. He has excellent control and has done a great job of limiting his walks, has definitely answered any questions people had about his ability to go later into games and is routinely going into the 7th inning , he pitched a full game last month.

Gomez has been getting lit up his last 3 games , 1-2 withan ERA around 10 and he hasnt made it past the fifth inning in his last 3. Cleveland is banged up ( Hafner, Hannahan are out) and the Reds are in a tight race with Pitt here but they are struggling lately, going 2-5 in their last 7. That loss sunday night should sting. I like the number here with gomezs recent struggles and an AL team in a national park.

Reds -1 -122 risk 1.22

Rangers -1 -130 risk 2.6

Brewers -1 -120 risk 1.2

Pirates +1 -114 risk 1.14

NBA OKC -5 -110 risk 3.30

Russia pk -137 risk 2.74

Russia ml +147 risk 1

[gregm]

Dodgers 1st 5 pk +102 risk 1

I have faded Williams on the road this year and I really did expect his numbers to regress as the year went on. A 30 year old journeyman who started the year after making some rehab starts for class A inland empire ball, he has alot of experience in the big leagues as well as the minors and certainly has outperformed this year considering his skill set. He has actually put up fantastic numbers this year but alot of those have been at home .

Williams has spectacular numbers at home, going 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA ( 8-0 since last year at home with a 2.32 ERA) before his last start against Seattle at home where he got shelled, he gave up 5 earned runs and 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. He is 1-2 on the road this year with an ERA of 5.65. I expect to see some regression in his numbers as the year goes on.

Harang has been solid this year and is 4-1 with an ERA of 3.22 in his last 6 starts, Harang doesnt tend to go more than 6 and with the way the Angels are hitting the ball and the Dodgers recent struggles, this first 5 inning wager seems the way to go here. I won my first 5 inning wager last night with Capuano and LA but lost the full game wager.