Jeff Grant: Tuesday MLB Picks and Insider Report - 6/12

Jeff Grant · 06-12-12, 11:31 AM

Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Washington Nationals starting rotation leads the majors with a 2.93 ERA
-Nationals SP Chien-Ming Wang had a 7.18 ERA in his last five starts against the Blue Jays during his time with the Yankees
-Toronto’s bullpen has thrown 21.2 innings over the last five games
-Wang is 1-1 with a 12.46 ERA in two career starts at the Rogers Centre (8.2 IP, 19 H)
-The Blue Jays are 8-11 in their last 19 home games in interleague play
-The Nationals are 3-3 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
-The Blue Jays are 3-4 as a home favorite of -150 to -175, with the “over” cashing in six of those games

Pick: Over 9.5

Read an SBR Forum preview of this game

Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Reds SP Johnny Cueto is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts against the Indians, last facing them in 2010
-Indians closer Chris Perez leads the AL with 20 saves
-Cleveland leads the majors with 225 walks this year
-The Tribe have made only 29 errors, sitting behind only the White Sox, Mariners and Yankees in that category
-The Indians lead the all-time series against the Reds (39-36), winning seven of the last 10 meetings
-In each of the last 56 games at the Great American Ball Park, there has been at least one home run
-The Indians are 5-1 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5, with the “over” cashing in each contest
-The Reds are 0-3 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season, but 8-2 in Cueto’s last 10 starts in that situation
-Indians DH Travis Hafner has two HRs in four career at-bats against Cueto, but is currently on the 15-day disabled list
-Cueto is 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 14 career starts against AL opponents

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -165

Read an SBR Forum preview of this Ohio rivalry

JMon · 06-12-12, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Grant

Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Marlins SP Mark Buehrle looks to match a major league record by winning an 11th straight interleague decision
-Buehrle has more interleague wins than any other pitcher (24)
-Buehrle is 6-6 with a 4.49 ERA in 17 career appearances (16 starts) against the Red Sox
-Boston has scored just 10 runs and is hitting .198 during its current four-game losing streak
-Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in three career interleague starts, as he’ll face the Marlins for the first time
-Miami is hitting .199 with 14 runs scored in its first seven games of the homestand
-The Red Sox are 8-5 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125, with the “over” going 9-4 in those contests
-The Marlins are 5-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -125

Handicapper Line: Miami Marlins -108, no clear edge in the betting odds

Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen leads the majors with a .463 batting average against left-handed pitchers this season (4 HR, 17 RBI)
-McCutchen went 6 for 9 as the Pirates took two of three at home against Baltimore last year
-Orioles SP Wei-Yen Chen is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in five starts at Camden Yards
-Pirates bullpen has an ERA of 2.44, which is second best in baseball
-Since May 25, the Pirates are tied for the most wins (12) in the majors, with the Angels and Yankees
-The Pirates are 11-6 against left-handed starters this year
-Pittsburgh has won the first game of a series six straight times
-Pirates SP Brad Lincoln is 0-2 with a 5.03 ERA in five appearances (three starts) in interleague play
-The Pirates are 8-4 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season, with the “under” going 7-5 in those contests
-The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 games following an off day

Handicapper Line: Baltimore Orioles -137, value found on the Pirates

The Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a day off

8-19-2011, 6-1-12 were the two losses.

Jeff Grant · 06-12-12, 12:31 PM

New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Tampa Bay has outscored opponents by a 29-10 margin during its current four-game win streak
-New York has dropped six of seven games
-Mets SP Chris Young was away from the team a couple days due to paternity leave after his last start on June 5
-Rays SP Alex Cobb is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two career interleague starts, will face the Mets for the first time
-Tampa Bay closer Fernando Rodney has converted 18 of 19 save chances
-The Mets are 4-4 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season (5-3 over)
-The Rays are 5-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 (6-4 under)

Opinion: Rays hold a major bullpen advantage, but not at this price

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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-SP CC Sabathia is 20-8 with a 3.45 ERA in 42 interleague outings, including an 8-2 mark and 2.76 ERA in 12 efforts with the Yankees
-The Yankees are 8-4 in Sabathia’s starts this year, with the offense producing 6.43 runs per game
-New York is an AL-best 12-7 against left-handed starters
-Braves SP Mike Minor is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA in his last three home outings, allowing the most home runs by an NL pitcher (14)
-The Yankees lead the majors with 93 home runs, producing a 35-13 record when leaving the yard in a game
-The Yankees are 4-1 as a road favorite of -150 to -175 (3-2 over), while winning 18 of their last 21 games in that situation with Sabathia on the hill
-The Braves have lost their last six home games against left-handed starters

Handicapper Line: New York Yankees -158, correct price sent out by oddsmakers

Read an SBR Forum preview of this interleague affair

JMon · 06-12-12, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Grant

Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-The Blue Jays are 8-11 in their last 19 home games in interleague play

Starting 6-22-10, The Blue Jays are 7-12 in their L19 interleague home games.

Jeff Grant · 06-12-12, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Starting 6-22-10, The Blue Jays are 7-12 in their L19 interleague home games.

I really don't have a problem with you correcting things - not even sure if your numbers are correct - but would appreciate if you simply replied to the thread once in the afternoon (with all your adjustments)

Want to keep my daily threads clean for the community to read

JMon · 06-12-12, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Grant

I really don't have a problem with you correcting things - not even sure if your numbers are correct - but would appreciate if you simply replied to the thread once in the afternoon (with all your adjustments)

Want to keep my daily threads clean for the community to read

No problem, I really do believe the community wants to read accurate information. I actually only correct a couple of your daily inaccuracies. In question of my numbers, just let me know and I will give you exact dates, pitchers and team match ups. I'm, however, interested where you get your inaccurate (not saying all of it is) information?

Jeff Grant · 06-12-12, 02:07 PM

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Arizona is 5-1 during interleague play this year
-The Rangers went 4-6 on their recently completed 10-game road trip
-Texas was 4-5 at home against NL opponents in 2011
-The Rangers lead the majors with 322 runs and a .282 batting average
-Rangers SP Colby Lewis is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last five interleague starts, but has never faced the Diamondbacks
-Lewis’ 1.13 walks-per-nine-innings pitched ratio is best in the majors
-Lewis is 6-2 with a 2.14 ERA in 19 career interleague games (11 starts), tossing quality outings in eight of his last nine
-In eight career interleague starts, Diamondbacks SP Ian Kennedy is 2-5 with a 6.34 ERA
-The Diamondbacks are 2-0 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season (both games went over)
-The Rangers are 4-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this year
-The Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of seven or more days

Read an SBR Forum preview of this contest

Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Detroit has won 11 of 14 meetings with Chicago during interleague play, including five straight at Wrigley Field
-Cubs SP Paul Maholm is 0-1 with a 2.38 ERA in two career starts versus the Tigers
-Tigers 1B Prince Fielder is hitting .380 with five HRs and 24 RBIs over his last 26 games, but has just six hits in 48 at-bats (.125) against Maholm
-Detroit’s bullpen has a 2.44 ERA over the past 23 games
-Tigers SP Max Scherzer is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA in his previous 11 starts during interleague play
-The Tigers are 3-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 (5-3 over)
-The Cubs are 2-5 as a home underdog of +125 to +150 (4-3 over)

Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Kansas City was swept by Pittsburgh over the weekend, scoring just seven runs and went 4 for 29 (.138) with RISP
-The Royals are 5-18 in their last 23 interleague games
-Brewers OF Ryan Braun has a 16-game hitting streak in interleague play, batting .424 with two HRs and 18 RBIs in that span
-Milwaukee ranks third in the NL with 71 home runs, trailing St. Louis (77) and Colorado (73)
-Current Royals are 0-for-26 when facing Brewers SP Zack Greinke
-The Brewers are 0-2 as a road favorite of -150 to -175 (2-0 under)
-The Royals are 12-11 as a home underdog of +125 to +150 the last two-plus seasons

Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Twins SP Nick Blackburn allowed eight runs in just 1.2 innings in a 9-5 loss to the Phillies in his only career start against them
-Minnesota is batting .314 in interleague play this season, ranking second in all of baseball (Brewers .319)
-The Twins are 28-10 in interleague play since 2006, going 15-4 at home in that span
-Blackburn has allowed 13 runs on 18 hits in the first inning this season, allowing a run in seven of his eight starts in that situation
-Blackburn is 4-5 with a 5.94 ERA in 12 career interleague starts, including an 0-2 mark and 9.42 ERA last season. He’s currently on a four-game interleague losing streak
-Jim Thome could play a major part in this game due to being the DH, going 7 for 24 (.292) with two HRs in his career against Blackburn
-The Phillies are 34-21 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 the last two-plus seasons

Pick: Over 9

LoneStar · 06-12-12, 03:40 PM

shi* Jeff you got your own free editor...

Jeff Grant · 06-12-12, 03:42 PM

Other MLB Items (Part I)
-Cleveland is averaging a major league-best 5.11 runs per game on the road (3.84 at home)
-The Indians have split their last 36 meetings in Cincinnati, but are 10-14 at the Great American Ball Park

-Since May 22, the Los Angeles Angels lead the majors with a 15-4 record
-The Angels have won 10 straight road games for the first time since 1988
-Los Angeles is 46-27 against the Dodgers under the direction of manager Mike Scioscia
-Since the start of 2007, the Angels lead the majors with a 67-30 record in interleague play
-Angels SP Jerome Williams is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 10 interleague appearances (nine starts)

-Yankees SS Derek Jeter has reached base safely in all 12 career games at Turner Field, including the postseason and 2010 All-Star Game (.444 average)
-New York is 8-2 in June, outscoring opponents by a 52-24 margin, 17-6 in home runs
-Sabathia is 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA over his last 12 starts in interleague play
-Sabathia is 32-13 (.711) with a 3.61 ERA in 61 career starts in June, marking the highest winning percentage in the majors (min. 40 decisions) in that situation

-Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano leads the majors with 12 HRs and ranks third with 23 RBIs since May 15
-Maholm is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts
-Maholm has a 8.18 ERA in the first inning this year