Jeff Grant: Sunday MLB Picks and Insider Report - 6/10

[Jeff Grant]

New York Mets at New York Yankees (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-The Yankees lead the majors leagues with 90 home runs, including 29 in their last 16 games (12-4 record)
-Yankees starting rotation has a 1.41 ERA and holding opponents to a .156 average in winning five of six
-The Mets are 1-5 in their last six games, hitting just .193 over that span
-The Yankees are 50-36 all-time against the Mets during the regular season
-The Mets are 17-8 in day games this year, with David Wright ranking second in the NL with a .393 daytime batting average
-Mets SP Jonathon Niese is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in fix daytime starts (1-2, 7.05 ERA at night)
-The Yankees are 33-13 when hitting a home run this year, 0-12 when failing to do so
-Yankees SP Andy Pettitte is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA in his last 13 interleague starts, while going 5-3 with a 4.17 ERA in eight career home games against the Mets
-Niese allowed seven runs (six earned) in 4.1 innings in a 14-1 home loss to the Diamondbacks in his only career start with umpire Mike Muchlinski behind home plate
-The OVER is 33-15-3 in the Yankees last 51 home games versus a left-handed starter

Pick: Over 5 Runs First Five Innings

Read an SBR Forum article on the final game of this three-game series

[Jeff Grant]

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Tampa Bay has outscored Miami by a 36-11 margin in winning the last six meetings
-Rays SP James Shields registered two strikeouts in his last start, his fewest in his last 24 efforts
-Marlins SP Anibal Sanchez is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts versus the Rays
-The Rays are 65-48 during interleague play under manager Joe Maddon
-Since May 12, Marlins SS Jose Reyes is batting .347 with a hit in 17 of 19 games
-Shields has allowed 25 runs (19 earned) in his last 25.2 IP
-Shields is 5-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against the Marlins, posting a complete game in his last two outings
-The Rays are 4-9 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season
-The Marlins are 11-9 in day games, with the “over” going 13-7 in those contests
-Miami ranks 10th in the majors with a .254 batting average, Tampa Bay sits 28th (.218)

Pick: Miami Marlins -116

[Jeff Grant]

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Pittsburgh has won SP A.J. Burnett’s last six outings, as he’s posted a 2.06 ERA over that span
-Burnett is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA in five starts at PNC Park, which is the lowest home ERA in the NL
-The Pirates haven’t completed an interleague series sweep since June 15, 2001, playing 49 such series since that date
-Burnett is 4-2 with a 1.86 ERA in eight starts against the Royals since 2007
-Kansas City is 9-23 in its last 32 interleague games
-Royals SP Bruce Chen is 5-1 with a 3.79 ERA in his last six outings
-Chen is 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts against the Pirates, but only one of those outings have come since 2005
-The Pirates have hit nine home runs in their last seven games
-Chen is 4-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 26 interleague games (16 starts)
-Chen is 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA in four games (three starts) at PNC Park
-The Pirates are 6-1 at home with a money line of -100 to -125, with the “under” going 5-2 in those contests
-The Pirates are 7-2 against left-handed starters at PNC Park
-In their last six games, the Pirates are hitting .422 with RISP (19-for-45)
-Pittsburgh has the best bullpen ERA in baseball (2.41)
-The Royals (.277) are the third-best daytime hitting team in the majors, while the Pirates (.228) are 27th


Pick: Under 7.5

[kramerthekid]

What's your updated record kid like your picks

[Jeff Grant]

Other MLB Items (Part I)
-Philadelphia needs a win today to capture its third straight road series, with the club going 5-4 overall in rubber games this year
-The Phillies have a total of 17 HRs in their last 12 games, which is tied for second-most among NL clubs over that span (Mets, Brewers)
-SP Cliff Lee is 17-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 30 career interleague starts
-Lee is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA over his last nine road starts
-The Phillies are 7-12 in day games this year, with the “over” going 11-7 in those contests
-In four home starts, Baltimore SP Jason Hammel is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA
-Hammel is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Phillies
-The Orioles are 9-6 against left-handed starters, with the “over” going 10-5 in those contests
-Hammel is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four daytime starts, giving up just a single home run in 25.2 innings
-The “under” is 4-0 in the Orioles four games as a home underdog of +125 to +150


-Over the last 11 games, San Diego’s offense is batting .262 with 15 home runs
-The Padres are 8-16 in day games this year
-The Padres have won just one of SP Anthony Bass’ five road starts this season
-In six games (five starts) during the day, Bass is 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA (0-4, 5.75 ERA at night)
-Brewers SP Yovani Gallardo is 2-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five starts against the Padres, including a 5-0 loss at Petco Park on May 2
-The Brewers are 7-17 in day games this year
-The Brewers are 39-12 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 the past two-plus seasons


Pick: San Diego Padres +150

[sigchikyle]

Jeff, what you think about cards today?

[brahmabull117]

Jeff, Padres are 6-19 on the road man. If you want to lay +150, there's a lot better choices than that

[Jeff Grant]

Jeff, Padres are 6-19 on the road man. If you want to lay +150, there's a lot better choices than that

Brewers are still being priced at a high level at home due to their outstanding record at Miller Park in 2011

Value my friend - plus Quentin is a major boost to the lineup - rest of the roster has good numbers against Gallardo

Bass does his best work during the day - bullpen is basically a push now that Cashner moved to the rotation

A lot to like at that price

[Jeff Grant]

Jeff, what you think about cards today?

Haven't look at that game yet

Reached out to some of my contacts around St. Louis, as I use to be a member of the organization's media relations department (Florida Marlins as well)

Are you a Sigma Chi?

In Hoc brother if you are

[brahmabull117]

Brewers are still being priced at a high level at home due to their outstanding record at Miller Park in 2011

Value my friend - plus Quentin is a major boost to the lineup - rest of the roster has good numbers against Gallardo

Bass does his best work during the day - bullpen is basically a push now that Cashner moved to the rotation

A lot to like at that price

Bass is 1-3 on the road with a 5 Era. Padres are 6-20 on the road



Value means nothing if you lose, Brewers win this like 5-3

[sigchikyle]

I am brotha, let me know if you see anything in the cards game.. I'm 15-1 this week trying to keep my hot streak haha

[sigchikyle]

Ihsv

[JMon]

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Pittsburgh has won SP A.J. Burnett’s last six outings, as he’s posted a 2.06 ERA over that span
-Burnett is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA in five starts at PNC Park, which is the lowest home ERA in the NL
-The Pirates haven’t completed an interleague series sweep since June 15, 2001, playing 49 such series since that date
-Burnett is 4-2 with a 1.86 ERA in eight starts against the Royals since 2007
-Kansas City is 9-23 in its last 32 interleague games
-Royals SP Bruce Chen is 5-1 with a 3.79 ERA in his last six outings
-Chen is 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts against the Pirates, but only one of those outings have come since 2005
-The Pirates have hit nine home runs in their last seven games
-Chen is 4-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 26 interleague games (16 starts)
-Chen is 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA in four games (three starts) at PNC Park
-The Pirates are 6-1 at home with a money line of -100 to -125, with the “under” going 5-2 in those contests
-The Pirates are 7-2 against left-handed starters at PNC Park
-In their last six games, the Pirates are hitting .422 with RISP (19-for-45)
-Pittsburgh has the best bullpen ERA in baseball (2.41)
-The Royals (.277) are the third-best daytime hitting team in the majors, while the Pirates (.228) are 27th


Pick: Under 7.5

Burnett is 0-13 under since May 17th 2009 at home when his team is on a three or more game winning streak. Also since the 2009 season, he is 4-18 under against below .500 teams, 2-0 under this year.

[brahmabull117]

Burnett is 0-13 under since May 17th 2009 at home when his team is on a three or more game winning streak. Also since the 2009 season, he is 4-18 under against below .500 teams, 2-0 under this year.

previous season stats like that are mostly irrelevant

[JMon]

I have the Brewers at 8-17, Padres 9-18 and Mets at 17-9 in day games this year.

[Jeff Grant]

My top play today is the Boston Red Sox -160
-Lester is 15-4 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 June Starts, his most wins and lowest ERA of any month in his career
-Boston is third in the AL with a .268 daytime average, averaging 5.18 runs per game
-Red Sox lead the majors with a 107-60 record in interleague play since 2003
-Lester is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts versus Washington, while going 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his last 10 starts against NL East opponents
-Washington SP Jordan Zimmerman has allowed five HRs in 12.2 IP with today's home plate umpire, which is a nice fit with Boston leading the majors in extra-base hits
-Red Sox bullpen is second in the majors with a 2.10 ERA since April 23