Blake Beavan finally gets a start he can handle Sunday

[No coincidences]

SEA +100

Beavan's slate has been brutal so far this year. He has ugly numbers, thanks in large part to a stretch where he's faced Toronto on the road, Tampa on the road, Detroit at home, Boston on the road, Colorado on the road, the Angels at home, Texas on the road and the Angels on the road. And that's consecutively, folks.

Billingsley is a piece of shit and I don't see that changing on Sunday. Dodgers have the best record in baseball yet this game's a virtual PK. I'll be on the M's.

[blackeyeshamus]

[ShogunRua]

on this as well. Hopefully the M's can put up some runs too.

[taxe91]

Angels, Tigers, and Tampa Bay are all in the bottom half of the majors in runs scored. The Dodgers are 8th by the way

[starfire]

BigBlue takes this Rubber match

[Koldazzice]

I want to take sea here - Good points as always Nocoin. I just hate trying to decide what Sea team will show up each day.

[Koldazzice]

plus hit sea in the no hit game then LAD yesterday. Hate trying to push my luck in this random series

[brahmabull117]

the Dodgers are a solid offense - #9 in the majors in runs and OPS and they play with a DH here instead of having 2/3 useless at bats with a pitcher



I don't know why you think those other teams are much better than LA in terms of offensive ability. In any case, I'm going to stay away from this game cause I'm still not sold on the Dodgers being legitimate and I expect them to hit a big losing streak anytime soon now

[remeedella]

hint, lines were supposed to open up at 6.5o/u. I don't care what weather, what hitters you show me on each team, try and play the under

it's now at 8

[No coincidences]

Angels, Tigers, and Tampa Bay are all in the bottom half of the majors in runs scored. The Dodgers are 8th by the way

But without Kemp how are they doing?

[brahmabull117]

But without Kemp how are they doing?

They've averaged about 4.5 runs a game on the season without Kemp

[Love The Action]

But without Kemp how are they doing?

Way better than Seattle is doing with their "A" lineup. If you just look at the last 30 days (which is about what Kemp has been out except for a quick one game return), the Dodger rank top 15 in OPS, BABIP, wRC, wRC+, wOBA, wRAA, etc., while Seattle is bottom 5. Even if you look at standard stats like batting average and whatnot, the Dodgers without Kemp are a much better offense than Seattle's "A" lineup. That doesn't mean the Dodgers will win, although I think they will and had to play them once I got +101, but they are playing surprisingly well on offense without Kemp. At some point it regresses, but I think they can beat Beavan. We all know Billinsley is inconsistent, but he has the "stuff" to be very, very good if he is "on" whereas Beavan does not have that raw natural talent. Billingsley pitched well in three of his last four outtings, so I am hoping he can keep it up. GL

[brahmabull117]

Way better than Seattle is doing with their "A" lineup. If you just look at the last 30 days (which is about what Kemp has been out except for a quick one game return), the Dodger rank top 15 in OPS, BABIP, wRC, wRC+, wOBA, wRAA, etc., while Seattle is bottom 5. Even if you look at standard stats like batting average and whatnot, the Dodgers without Kemp are a much better offense than Seattle's "A" lineup. That doesn't mean the Dodgers will win, although I think they will and had to play them once I got +101, but they are playing surprisingly well on offense without Kemp. At some point it regresses, but I think they can beat Beavan. We all know Billinsley is inconsistent, but he has the "stuff" to be very, very good if he is "on" whereas Beavan does not have that raw natural talent. Billingsley pitched well in three of his last four outtings, so I am hoping he can keep it up. GL

Nice write up, I'm not playing this, but I would definitely lean Dodgers here. They've played well on the road this season too

[Allure]

6 earned runs in less than 2 innings so far.

All that fishy line, line says it all shit.

[starfire]

Go BigBlue

[No coincidences]

Really thought Beavan would be able to get back on track and at least be respectable today. What a pathetic effort. I watched the Dodgers on Friday night and (obviously) wasn't impressed by what I saw offensively. Still think they're in for some serious regression, at least until Kemp returns.

Apparently Vegas is OK with giving a free-bee with the Dodgers at + money.

Oh well.

[No coincidences]

6 runs with 2 outs. Man.

[blackeyeshamus]

Yeah, it was a good bet...
No regrets! There is always a good chance that
Billingsley will f@#k it up, and let the
M's back in the game. Whatever.
Good luck, No Co.

[brahmabull117]

Really thought Beavan would be able to get back on track and at least be respectable today. What a pathetic effort. I watched the Dodgers on Friday night and (obviously) wasn't impressed by what I saw offensively. Still think they're in for some serious regression, at least until Kemp returns.

Apparently Vegas is OK with giving a free-bee with the Dodgers at + money.

Oh well.

I don't understand how many times you have to lose with these "suspect lines" nonsense before you realize that Vegas makes plenty of mistakes. This was clearly an off line


Vegas is not a 100% efficient market and they don't have a magic 8 ball where they can see the results for every game. Stop playing games because you think the line is too low and start playing games that you think will win

[Ralphie1412]

you are just awful

[No coincidences]

you are just awful

Tailed and lost, eh?

[Ralphie1412]

totally

[No coincidences]

totally

I can't even begin to imagine how bored you must be with your life.

[Rose']

No Coin What you like tonight? If anything?

[Ralphie1412]

I can't even begin to imagine how bored you must be with your life.

I think I have said 5 comments to you in the past few months. Get a grip.

You lost 50 bucks, move on.

[Pew Pew]

laffing my ass offfff LOL do you ever pick winners bro? what did the line movements tell you today?

[brahmabull117]

laffing my ass offfff LOL do you ever pick winners bro? what did the line movements tell you today?

What baffles me is how he will look at a play and see one where the line seems to be hugely off and actually play the opposite side



It's like somebody giving you a gift and you saying no, wtf?

[No coincidences]

laffing my ass offfff LOL do you ever pick winners bro? what did the line movements tell you today?

You tell me. Threads are there for all to see.

[No coincidences]

I think I have said 5 comments to you in the past few months. Get a grip.

You lost 50 bucks, move on.

This is literally all you do here. You troll. Like I said, you must be horribly unhappy and bored with your life if you spend your free time trolling a gambling message board.

[hawley]

What baffles me is how he will look at a play and see one where the line seems to be hugely off and actually play the opposite side



It's like somebody giving you a gift and you saying no, wtf?

Would this fit the definition of trolling?

[brahmabull117]

Would this fit the definition of trolling?

no, because it relates exactly to this thread. All reasonable analysis would lead to the Dodgers as being the only legitimate play


The problem is that No Coin has this intense 100% belief that Vegas is a perfectly efficient market and that they can do no wrong, that when analysis clearly points to 1 team as being more likely to win and the line being way off, he'll go the opposite way. It just doesn't make any sense, not when there are teams year in and year out that overperform or underperform what Vegas expects by a huge margin


Why even do this in the first place if you think Vegas can do no wrong?

[No coincidences]

no, because it relates exactly to this thread. All reasonable analysis would lead to the Dodgers as being the only legitimate play


The problem is that No Coin has this intense 100% belief that Vegas is a perfectly efficient market and that they can do no wrong, that when analysis clearly points to 1 team as being more likely to win and the line being way off, he'll go the opposite way. It just doesn't make any sense, not when there are teams year in and year out that overperform or underperform what Vegas expects by a huge margin


Why even do this in the first place if you think Vegas can do no wrong?

Link?

[brahmabull117]

Link?

All these constant threads when you do analysis and realize that the line is way off...yet you convince yourself that's a trap set by Vegas because they're a 100% efficient market and they never do anything wrong


Why even do this in the first place if you don't have enough faith in yourself to outsmart Vegas?

[No coincidences]

All these constant threads when you do analysis and realize that the line is way off...yet you convince yourself that's a trap set by Vegas because they're a 100% efficient market and they never do anything wrong


Why even do this in the first place if you don't have enough faith in yourself to outsmart Vegas?

Again, where have I ever said that or anything close to it?

Oddsmakers are much smarter than you give them credit for, but to say it's a 100% efficient market and never do anything wrong is completely putting words into my mouth and, well, for lack of a better term, trolling.

[brahmabull117]

Oddsmakers are much smarter than you give them credit for.

Not at all. I know oddsmakers are plenty smart. That's why I criticize people who play 10 games a day. Your best hope of beating Vegas is picking a few teams/games where they have clearly been overrating/underrating them all season and just try to milk that as much as possible


Hell in football, I don't even play spreads too much cause they're so damn sharp all the time. My point is that in plays like this, just trust your analysis. If the Dodgers seem like they're priced way way too low, then take advantage of it