Jeff Grant: Saturday MLB Picks and Insider Report - 6/9

[Jeff Grant]

Friday MLB Recap
-San Diego has a major league-worst 5-20 record on the road
-Brewers 3B Aramis Ramirez was back in the lineup after missing four games
-Mets SP Johan Santana served up a career-high four home runs
-Santana is 0-3 with a 12.21 ERA in three starts at the new Yankee Stadium
-Phillies SP Joe Blanton has allowed 11 HRs in his last five starts
-Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon is 16-for-16 in save opportunities
-Baltimore OF Adam Jones is hitless in his last 14 at-bats
-Reds 1B Joey Votto extended his hit streak to 14 games (.549), matching the longest of his career
-The Marlins are 1 for 28 with RISP during their current homestand, losing all four games and totaling four runs
-In his last five starts, Chicago White Sox SP Gavin Floyd has allowed 29 earned runs in 25.2 innings, allowing 10 home runs in that span
-Cleveland has won 15 of 25 games on the road this year
-San Francisco played without Melky Cabrera and Buster Posey, getting shutout for the first time since Sept. 10 of last year

[Jeff Grant]

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (Betting Odds / Matchup)
-Philadelphia has won nine of its last 11 road games
-Orioles SP Tommy Hunter is 0-2 with a 7.18 ERA in his past five starts
-Phillies SP Vance Worley is 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four road starts this season
-Worley is 3-5 with a 4.88 ERA in 15 career appearances (11 starts) during the day (1.99 ERA at night)
-Phillies OF Shane Victorino tied a career high with five RBIs on Friday
-Baltimore’s bullpen threw five scoreless innings Friday, lowering its ERA to an AL-best 2.43
-The Orioles are 0-7 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters
-The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Baltimore

Pick: Baltimore Orioles +103

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins (Betting Odds / Matchup)
-The Cubs dropped an 8-7 contest on Friday night in their first-ever game at Target Field
-Chicago OF Alfonso Soriano leads the majors with 11 HRs since May 15
-The Cubs have dropped 19 of their last 23 games, while 53 percent of their games (31-of-58) have been decided by two runs or less this year
-Chicago is batting .223 against left-handed pitching, tied with the Houston Astros for the lowest mark in the NL (.263 last year)
-The Cubs are 2-12 against left-handed starters this year, no other team in the majors has fewer than four wins in that situation
-Chicago has gone winless in its last 13 road series (0-10-3 in that span)
-Minnesota has won eight of 10 games, and four straight at home
-Joe Mauer (thumb) and Denard Span (illness) could be back in the Twins lineup Saturday
-The Cubs are 1-9 as a road underdog of +100 to +125, with the UNDER going 7-3 in those contests
-The Twins are 33-26 in June the last two-plus seasons

Read an SBR Forum preview on this interleague contest

[brahmabull117]

great stuff


this is a great stat


"The Cubs are 1-9 as a road underdog of +100 to +125, with the UNDER going 7-3 in those contests"

[Jeff Grant]

Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Detroit SP Justin Verlander is 16-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 21 career interleague starts
-Verlander is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA in three starts since May 18
-Reds SP Bronson Arroyo is 2-1 with a 4.65 ERA in five career starts versus the Tigers
-Reds 1B Joey Votto is hitting .549 with three HRs and 13 RBIs over his 14-game hit streak
-Detroit 1B Prince Fielder is hitting .376 with four HRs and 21 RBIs over his last 23 games
-Since Jim Leyland became manager, the Tigers are 72-40 in interleague play
-The Tigers are 14-14 in day games, with the “under” going 18-9 in those contests
-The Reds are 16-7 in day games
-Cincinnati is 8-8 all-time against Detroit
-The Tigers have lost all three of Verlander’s starts with umpire Tom Hallion behind home plate
-The Reds are 1-6 in Arroyo’s last seven starts as a home underdog

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-San Diego has used 12 different starters this year, as Andrew Cashner makes his first after making 27 relief appearances to start the 2012 season
-Milwaukee has won six of its last eight home games against the San Diego Padres
-The Padres are a major league-worst 5-20 on the road
-The Brewers have won eight of their last 11 games, while posting their first three-game winning streak at home
-Padres SP Andrew Cashner is averaging 98.7 mph on his fastball this season, the highest average of any pitcher with at least 10 IP this year
-Cashner has not allowed an earned run in 5.2 career innings against the Brewers
-The Padres are 1-10 as a road underdog of +125 to +150
-The Brewers are 7-16 in day games this year, with the “over” going 12-9 in those contests

[Jeff Grant]

Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Nationals SP Gio Gonzalez has a 1.87 ERA in his last 10 starts
-Gonzalez leads all MLB starters with a .172 opponents batting average
-Nationals OF Bryce Harper is batting .354 with four HRs and 12 RBIs in his last 16 games
-Red Sox SP Daisuke Matsuzaka went 0-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 30 strikeouts in making six minor league starts
-Gonzalez is 8-1 with a 2.19 ERA in his last 10 road starts
-Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts at Fenway Park
-Boston leads the majors with a 107-59 interleague mark since 2003
-Matsuzaka is 6-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 interleague starts, with the Red Sox going 8-4 in those contests
-The Nationals are 11-8 in day games, ranking 14th in the league with a .249 batting average
-The Red Sox are 11-8 versus left-handed starters

Read an SBR Forum preview on this high-profile affair


Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-San Francisco has won 15 of the past 18 overall matchups with Texas
-Rangers SP Scott Feldman has a 8.80 ERA in his last four starts since replacing injured pitcher Neftali Feliz
-Feldman is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three games (one start) against the Giants, with all three of those affairs occurring in the Bay Area
-The Giants haven’t homered at home in 14 games
-The Rangers have captured 8 of 11 and 16 of 21 interleague road games, going an MLB-best 17-6 since the 2010 campaign
-Feldman is 3-2 with a 4.87 ERA in seven interleague starts on the road
-The Rangers are 10-7 in day games this year
-The home team is 35-16 in Randazzo’s last 51 games behind home plate

[Jeff Grant]

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (Betting Odds - Matchup)
-Atlanta has won 12 of its last 14 interleague games, including four straight over Toronto
-Braves SP Tommy Hanson has won three of his four interleague starts at Turner Field, posting a 2.05 ERA
-Blue Jays SP Drew Hutchinson is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA in five road outings
-Hanson is 11-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 career June starts
-The Blue Jays are 13-18 in their last 31 interleague games on the road
-The Blue Jays are 11-9 in day games, with the “over” going 11-8 in that situation
-The Braves are 7-10 in day games this year, but 67-54 since the start of the 2010 campaign
-Atlanta has won seven straight games in this series, all at home, outscoring Toronto by a 31-10 margin over that span
-Braves starting pitchers have tallied a 1.86 ERA over the last six games
-Hanson is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.16 ERA in five career starts against AL East competition
-Hanson allowed a career high-tying four home runs in his only start with umpire Dan Bellino behind the dish


Pick: Blue Jays/Braves Over 8

[Jeff Grant]

Final pick today: New York Mets +150 First Five Innings
-The Mets are 8-1 on Saturdays, with Daniel Murphy leading the league in batting .516, David Wright ranks fourth (.429)
-New York has hit nine home runs this month, always a good thing when facing Phil Hughes at Yankee Stadium
-Mets SP Dillon Gee is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in six career June starts, allowing just one HR in 36 innings
-Hughes has always been much better during the day in his career, going 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA in six night starts this year
-Mets are 25-12 against right-handed starters