something cool that might be profitable

EVPlus · 06-07-12, 06:12 PM

You can back test your theory.

A word to the wise: don't be shocked if someone hasn't tried this before; in other words, Vegas will anticipate such "systems" and adjust the lines accordingly. My guess is that this won't amount to much and you'll most likely bleed slowly in juice.

camelbreath$ · 06-07-12, 06:55 PM

If you think about the math behind this, it doesn't work. ML underdogs do not cover a high enough percentage. You are better off limiting your sample size to 3-5 teams that you anticipate will cover as underdogs more often than not over the course of a 2-4 week period. Eventually Vegas will make the adjustment if they are covering at a high clip after a month though, at which point you would need to reset to a different team. It's just riding the hot 'dogs until an adjustment is made, and this is essentially how the grind it out pro's make profit long term. Tons of research and metrics analysis go into selecting teams to ride though.

TheProdigy8199 · 06-07-12, 07:32 PM

I know some females who like to ride hot dogs...

Smashmouth71 · 06-07-12, 08:25 PM

I actually tried this idea a few weeks ago!

It doesn't work.

The favs do win 60%, however blindly betting them doesn't really work either.

The juice eats most of the profits and the days where the dogs hit 45%+ wipe out any profits.

I kept track of the results as paper bets just to test and got so fed up with the results...you will have a couple good days a week but longterm it's frustrating, but paper test/bet yourself and you'll see what I mean.

EVPlus · 06-07-12, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by Smashmouth71

I actually tried this idea a few weeks ago!

It doesn't work.

The favs do win 60%, however blindly betting them doesn't really work either.

The juice eats most of the profits and the days where the dogs hit 45%+ wipe out any profits.

I kept track of the results as paper bets just to test and got so fed up with the results...you will have a couple good days a week but longterm it's frustrating, but paper test/bet yourself and you'll see what I mean.

See the part I high-lighted. Blindly betting (whether it's tail or fade) is similar to what those in the field of probability call the drunkard's walk. The MAJOR difference for sports bettors is that the books will anticipate and, more often than not, take full advantage.

There's a popular thread going on right now about auto fading the touts at covers. So far, the faders are doing pretty well. However, I cannot help but wonder if they will end up hitting 40-50 percent through the season and end up losing in juice. Another option would be to watch individual touts and fade (or tail accordingly). For example, look at the pattern up to this point for Fargo as opposed to Lawrence. Fargo doesn't take too many consecutive losses while Lawrence appears to go out of his way to suck. Powers is a chalk whore while the new guy Schulle actually has a preference for dogs (that have been hitting 4 out of 6 up to this point).

In other words, look again at the high-lighted statement above.

gmen4life · 06-07-12, 10:33 PM

If u want the best system in the world here it is (drumroll) blindly bet against the cubs every game. and if your feeling real lucky bet against the cubs and padres every game. If hell freezes over and the cubs win more than 3 in a row I apologize for this advice