Jeff Grant: Tuesday MLB Picks and Insider Report - 6/5

[Jeff Grant]

Monday MLB Recap
-Twins 1B Justin Morneau has hit 14 HRs at Kauffman Stadium, the most of any road ball park in his career
-The Cardinals struck out 41 times in their four-game series against the Mets
-San Francisco starting pitchers have gone seven straight games in pitching seven or more innings while allowing two or fewer runs
-Phillies closer Jonathon Papelbon is 15 for 15 in save opportunities
-Colorado snapped a five-game losing streak to Arizona at Chase Field last night
-Seattle has scored 55 runs in its last eight games


Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
-Pirates SP A.J. Burnett is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three games against the Reds
-Cincinnati has hit 20 home runs in winning seven of its last eight home games
-Reds SP Homer Bailey is 6-0 with a 1.79 ERA against the Pirates
-Reds 1B Joey Votto is 19 for 33 (.576) during a 10-game hitting streak
-Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen is one home run shy of becoming the third player in the majors with at least 10 HRs and 10 SBs
-Burnett has gone 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA in four career starts in Cincinnati
-The Pirates are 6-4 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this year, while the UNDER is 7-3 in that situation
-The Reds are 0-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season


Be careful in backing the Reds here, as Burnett has solid numbers when facing current members of their lineup

[El Nino]

ESPN listing Brad Lincoln as the Pirates SP?

[Jeff Grant]

ESPN listing Brad Lincoln as the Pirates SP?

Pirates have Burnett scheduled as the starter, as well as the SBR betting odds page

[El Nino]

Yeah, Burnett was in the write up, just not listed on the ESPN scores page. Thanks. On the under for that one.

[Jeff Grant]

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
-The Tigers have won 23 of their last 26 home games against the INdians, including the last seven dating back to June 16, 2011
-Detroit bullpen has a 2.18 ERA over the last 17 games
-Tigers 1B Prince Fielder is hitting .405 with four HRs and 19 RBI over his last 20 games
-Tigers SP Drew Smyly is 1-1 with a 6.53 ERA over his last four starts
-The Indians went 2-4 during a recent six-game stretch at home, scoring three or fewer runs in three of those games against left-handed starters
-Indians SP Ubaldo Jimenez has lost all four of his starts with a 9.78 ERA at Comerica Park
-Cleveland is 4-12 against left-handed starters this year, with the OVER going 9-6 in that situation
-Detroit is 30-16 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 the last two-plus years


Pick: Detroit Tigers -158




New York Mets at Washington Nationals
-New York has won seven of 10 games thanks to a starting rotation that has gone 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA over that span
-Mets SP Chris Young went 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four rehab starts
-Young is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA in six starts against the Nationals, winning both decisions in three visits to Washington
-The Mets have lost six of seven games to the Nationals, including two of three at home in hitting just .181 and scoring six runs
-Nationals SP Jordan Zimmerman has received just 1.39 runs of support in going 0-3 with a 3.34 ERA in five home starts
-The Mets went 7-4 on their recently completed homestand
-Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman is batting .239 with a HR and 11 RBIs since being activated from the disabled list on May 8.
-Players on the Mets’ current roster have hit .321 collectively against Zimmerman
-The Mets are 15-9 against divisional opponents this year
-The Nationals are 1-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season

[jlee]

Would like to add that the Indians are batting a league-worst .214 vs left handed pitchers this season. This could probably be attributed that the Indians have a league-leading 1336 ABs from the left side. But here's the catch... Smyly pitches worse against lefties (.292 vs .239 righties)

staying out of this one haha

edit: the indians are much better hitters on the road than home as well...

[Jeff Grant]

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
-Phillies SP Cliff Lee has won his last eight June starts, producing a 0.65 ERA over that span. The left-hander is 14-2 with a major league-best 2.49 ERA in the month since 2008
-Lee is 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA in three career starts versus the Dodgers
-Dodgers SP Chad Billingsley has posted a 2.42 ERA in four career starts at Citizens Bank Park
-Lee was 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA in May, while Billingsley was 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA during the same span
-The Dodgers are 8-8 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 the last two-plus seasons
-Philadelphia is 1-4 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season, with the “over” going 4-1 in those contests
-Lee is 11-3 with a 2.20 ERA in 18 career starts against NL West opponents

[kamikazekanesh]

Jeff, I can't pm you. Email me at qwklc2 AT hotmail.com
thx

[Gnutti]

I really like your threads

[Jeff Grant]

I really like your threads

Appreciate the support - makes it worth doing

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
-Rays SP James Shields has dropped each of his last four outings in the Bronx (4.05 ERA). He is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts in this series in 2012
-Tampa Bay is 8-11 against left-handed starters
-The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games against the Yankees
-Tampa Bay pitched to a 2.67 ERA on its recent six-game homestand, but hit just .165
-Shields has a 2.23 ERA against AL East opponents since the start of the 2011 season
-New York is 6-0 this year following an off day
-The Yankees are 12-6 in series openers this season, including a 6-2 mark at home
-New York leads the majors with 80 HRs this season, while the pitching staff has allowed 69 long balls, which is the second-most in the league (Twins, 72)
-The Yankees are batting .158 with the bases loaded this season, ranking 28th in that category (Tigers, .108 and Cardinals, .150)
-Yankees SP Andy Pettitte is 8-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 16 home starts against the Rays


Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
-The Marlins are 23-9 since May 1, winning seven of their last nine games
-Marlins SS Jose Reyes has the longest active hitting streak in the majors, batting .373 with seven runs scored and seven SBs over the last 14 games
-Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .340 with seven HRs and 26 RBIs at Marlins Park
-Miami SP Anibal Sanchez is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in his last six overall starts against the Braves
-Atlanta SP Tim Hudson was 7-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 11 career starts at Sun Life Stadium
-Miami leads the majors with 62 stolen bases, with a success rate of 79 percent
-Hudson allowed a HR in his second start of the season on May 4, but hasn’t allowed one since.


Pick: Braves/Marlins Over 4 First Five Innings

[GBFAN]

Thanks for doing this Jeff

[Hectorcist]

Keep it going Jeff..Always look forward to your threads everyday.

[Frank-King]

Good stuff

[Jeff Grant]

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
-Baltimore has scored 20 runs in its last eight games, hitting .175 with RISP
-Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia is back in the lineup, wearing a specially fitted brace for his thumb
-The Orioles are 9-9 in series opening games this year, while going 4-1 after an off day
-Baltimore’s bullpen leads the AL with a 2.37 ERA
-In 10 career outings (four starts) against the Red Sox, Orioles SP Jason Hammel is 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA
-The Red Sox have lost one of their last eight series since May 10
-Boston’s bullpen leads the majors with a 1.98 ERA since April 23
-Over the last 12 games at Fenway Park, the Red Sox have tallied a 9-3 record, outscoring opponents by a 63-39 margin
-Red Sox SP Jon Lester is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in five home starts this year
-Check out Lester’s career numbers versus the Baltimore Orioles


St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
-St. Louis’ starting rotation has a 7.03 ERA over the last six games
-Cardinals SP Jaime Garcia is 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA in six career starts against the Astros
-Houston’s starting rotation has an 8.29 ERA over its last nine games
-Garcia skipped his last start after experiencing left elbow discomfort
-The Cardinals are 28-32 in Huston since 2005, while going 32-19 at home during that span
-St. Louis is 3-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -150, with the “over” going 5-3 in those games
-Houston is 6-4 as a home underdog of +125 to +150, with the “under” going 6-4 in those contests