Is Finding Overrated/Underrated Teams One of The Most Important Aspect of Gambling?

[brahmabull117]

Pretty much every year, you have 2-4 teams that really really overperform/underperform what Vegas expects so they end up making/losing a lot of money over the course of the season. So far this year, the Tigers, cubs and padres have been a fading goldmine at around a combined -45 units for the season for all their games. I expect that both the cubs and padres will both lose 100-110 games this year as both teams are truly atrocious and expect both teams to finish a HUGE number in the negative in terms of total units



Last year, you had the same thing with the Phillies, Astros and Brewers. Astros were a fading goldmine all the way until September, Brewers were a goldmine nearly all year and the Phillies made a ton of money between march to august as well



Is this one of the best ways to make money?

[Squirrel Kokomo]

Fading you is not over or underrated since you've been around awhile, but it is one of the most important aspects of gambling.

[HoulihansTX]

Its the whole point.

Its why lines move. Very simple concept.

[aznbluff]

Ya it's the whole point.

Also, Cubs and Padres are underrated, while Texas is overrated. If you are thinking of fading the Padres/Cubs from now on you'll lose money. And you'll lose money backing Texas also

[brahmabull117]

Its the whole point.

Its why lines move. Very simple concept.

The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing

[underal]

its easy to look back and see this but can you look ahead and see who is overvalued and worth fading and who is undervalued and worth backing?
personally i am looking to fade nats and marlins for the next week or so

[brahmabull117]

Ya it's the whole point.

Also, Cubs and Padres are underrated, while Texas is overrated. If you are thinking of fading the Padres/Cubs from now on you'll lose money. And you'll lose money backing Texas also

I agree about Texas maybe being slightly overrated, but cubs and padres underrated? What in the world do you base that on? Both teams are like the 2011 Astros in that they're gonna lose a whole lot of games this year


It's going to be very profitable to fade them until Vegas adjusts and starts doing -200 lines every time they face decent teams

[Squirrel Kokomo]

The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing

and the Texas line moved in their direction by the close from the opener.

Cubs lost by more than one run, Rangers won by more than one run. Go figure.

[brahmabull117]

its easy to look back and see this but can you look ahead and see who is overvalued and worth fading and who is undervalued and worth backing?

I agree, the hard point is watching the teams and anticipating instead of reacting. It's really kind of like the stock market



With that being said, I thought the cubs would be just godawful before the season even began. No surprise at all to me that they've been getting dominated for a while now

[brahmabull117]

and the Texas line moved in their direction by the close from the opener.

Cubs lost by more than one run, Rangers won by more than one run. Go figure.

the Texas series was a total coinflip I thought

[HoulihansTX]

The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing

The moneyline represents probability, not the definite result of tomorrow newspaper.

Use the spread/Moneyline calculator located on this website in order to convert moneylines into percentages.

[underal]

i disagree on cubs. they are undervalued now and i am looking to play them. they have revamped the bullpen which hurt them bad till now. the lineup is actually better than most in the nl but not against lefties. dropping soriano down to 7th woulld help as well

[brahmabull117]

The moneyline represents probability, not the definite result of tomorrow newspaper.

Use the spread/Moneyline calculator located on this website in order to convert moneylines into percentages.

I would say these moneylines is what Vegas perceives the ability of these teams




Most of their lines are based on a power rankings that they have before the season that they adjust as the season goes on +/- home advantage

[brahmabull117]

i disagree on cubs. they are undervalued now and i am looking to play them. they have revamped the bullpen which hurt them bad till now. the lineup is actually better than most in the nl but not against lefties. dropping soriano down to 7th woulld help as well

I'm a huge cubs fan myself and I'm not sure what you're looking at. There's not 1 reliable offensive player in the lineup, a terrible bullpen that continues to struggle and an average starting staff that has really overachieved so far. Ryan Dempster and Jeff Samardzia are pitching nearly 1.50 point above their career average in era. Both guys will come down to earth


I expect Garza and Dempster to get traded somewhere along the line and the team will be truly atrocious after that point. 106 losses would be my guess

[HoulihansTX]

I would say these moneylines is what Vegas perceives the ability of these teams




Most of their lines are based on a power rankings that they have before the season that they adjust as the season goes on +/- home advantage

Moneyline	Loss	Win	Win % Required
-320	-320	100	76.19%
-300	-300	100	75.00%
-280	-280	100	73.68%
-270	-270	100	72.97%
-260	-260	100	72.22%
-250	-250	100	71.43%
-240	-240	100	70.59%
-230	-230	100	69.70%
-220	-220	100	68.75%
-210	-210	100	67.74%
-200	-200	100	66.67%
-180	-180	100	64.29%
-170	-170	100	62.96%
-160	-160	100	61.54%
-150	-150	100	60.00%
-140	-140	100	58.33%
-130	-130	100	56.52%
-120	-120	100	54.55%
-110	-110	100	52.38%
-105	-105	100	51.22%
-100	-100	100	50.00%
105	-100	105	48.78%
110	-100	110	47.62%
120	-100	120	45.45%
130	-100	130	43.48%
140	-100	140	41.67%
150	-100	150	40.00%
160	-100	160	38.46%
170	-100	170	37.04%
180	-100	180	35.71%
200	-100	200	33.33%
210	-100	210	32.26%
220	-100	220	31.25%
230	-100	230	30.30%
240	-100	240	29.41%
250	-100	250	28.57%
260	-100	260	27.78%
270	-100	270	27.03%
280	-100	280	26.32%
290	-100	290	25.64%
300	-100	300	25.00%

[brahmabull117]

that's an awesome chart, thanks

[underal]

i think that against righties with lahair campana and dejesus in there this is an above average lineup. the problem is that against lefties lahair and dejesus are non existant and there is nobody to replace them

[brahmabull117]

i think that against righties with lahair campana and dejesus in there this is an above average lineup. the problem is that against lefties lahair and dejesus are non existant and there is nobody to replace them

they're about average in OPS vs righties (16th in OPS), absolutely awful vs lefties (deadlast in runs and OPS)



they're also #26 in the league in defensive efficiency and 26th in era. This is a team that is literally terrible at everything. I would be shocked if they win more than 60 games

[Squirrel Kokomo]

that's an awesome chart, thanks

if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.

[brahmabull117]

if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.

I can, I actually somewhat knew all of those except for - 150 - I thought -150 would be about 58%. Still it's cool to see all the numbers for every line on a chart

[underal]

where do they stand in the nl against righties? take a look at rest of the lineups and you will see that they are better than most. i think you can find value in them in the right spots-obviously not against any leftie-zito shut them out today and it was no surprise if you noticed how bad they are against lefties

[brahmabull117]

where do they stand in the nl against righties? take a look at rest of the lineups and you will see that they are better than most. i think you can find value in them in the right spots-obviously not against any leftie-zito shut them out today and it was no surprise if you noticed how bad they are against lefties

they're #16th in the league in OPS against righties. I'll still fade them against any decent righty though because of their terrible defense, bullpen and starting staff outside of maybe Garza (whose the only guy I would expect to finish the season with a sub 4 era)



I'm telling you guys, fade this team until Vegas adjusts for how awful they are. They'll lose 65-70% of their road games this year

[HoulihansTX]

if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.

Matheticians use charts, and converters themselves. There is no need to memorize something that can be easily accessed.

[BettingWizard]

your flaw is that you act like there are never any teams that stink in the first half in the season, and then turn it around the last couple months.

there are just as many teams that do this compared to teams who stink the whole year


people who thought the angels sucked 3 weeks ago, and faded every game, are in the poorhouse.

[brahmabull117]

your flaw is that you act like there are never any teams that stink in the first half in the season, and then turn it around the last couple months.

there are just as many teams that do this compared to teams who stink the whole year


people who thought the angels sucked 3 weeks ago, and faded every game, are in the poorhouse.

Well you gotta use common sense. No reason to think that Anaheim would be bad all year or that the Orioles would be good all year