Jeff Grant: Sunday MLB Picks and Insider Report - 6/3

[Jeff Grant]

Early Look at Sunday's MLB Action:

• Marlins SP Carlos Zambrano is 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA in six career starts in Philadelphia
• Yankees SP Phil Hughes is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts at Comerica Park
• Red Sox SP Daniel Bard is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in 12 games (one start) at the Rogers Centre
• Reds SP Bronson Arroyo is 8-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his last nine starts against the Astros, with three complete games over that span
• Pirates SP James McDonald is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA in his two starts against the Brewers during his time in Pittsburgh
• Mariners SP Kevin Millwood is 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA in five starts at U.S. Cellullar Field
• Rangers SP Matt Harrison is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in four games (one start) at Angel Stadium (11.1 IP)
• Indians SP Justin Masterson is 1-3 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Twins

[Jeff Grant]

Saturday MLB Recap
-Washington Nationals bullpen has a 1.30 ERA in Stephen Strasburg's starts this year
-Orioles SP Brian Matusz is 7-2 with a 3.66 ERA in 14 starts when the club is suffering from a losing streak of at least three games
-Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia took batting practice before the game, marking the first time he has swung a bat since injuring his thumb
-Phillies SP Cole Hamels allowed a season-high five runs, moving to 0-2 in two starts against the Marlins, while going 8-0 in nine starts against every other team
-Marlins 3B Hanley Ramirez is batting .444 in his last 12 games
-Indians starting pitchers are 2-6 with a 9.52 ERA over the team's last eight games
-The Giants have won 10 of their last 14 home games, but have still homered just six times at AT&T Park, while opponents have left the yard 16 times
-The Rangers have lost four straight for the first time since June of last year
-Texas pitching staff has given up 30 unearned runs, tied with San Francisco for the most in the majors, including 27 of them coming since May 1

[Jeff Grant]

I recommend playing the Cincinnati Reds (Lyles/Arroyo) as soon as the MLB betting odds are released for this contest:

Umpire Dan Iassogna will be a familiar face behind home plate for Arroyo, as he’s won all five of his career starts when throwing in his strike zone. He’s managed to allow just seven earned runs in 37 combined innings over a period of time that dates back to Sept. 4, 2001.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -145

[Finch Dinero]

Seems like you know your shitt guy.

[Jeff Grant]

Seems like you know your shitt guy.

Definitely - take a look at my full preview for the Reds/Astros - will be a top wager in terms of my bankroll (3%)

More information to come

[Jeff Grant]

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
-Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera is hitting .405 with three HRs and nine RBI in his last eight games
-Detroit SP Justin Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four home starts against the Yankees
-Yankees SP Phil Hughes is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four games (three starts) at Comerica Park
-The Tigers will honor OF Magglio Ordonez with a retirement ceremony before the game
-The Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games against the Yankees at Comerica Park
-Detroit’s bullpen has a 2.32 ERA over the last 16 games
-Verlander is tied for fourth among all AL pitchers with a 1.37 ERA at home
-The Yankees are 10-7 in series finales this season, including a 5-4 mark on the road
-New York ranks second in the majors with 39 road HRs, trailing only the Seattle Mariners
-Hughes has allowed at least one HR in each of his first 10 starts this year
-Hughes has gone 13-4 in his last 20 starts that immediately follow a Yankees loss

[Jeff Grant]

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
-Boston is 4-1 without the services of 2B Dustin Pedroia, hitting .306 and scoring 29 runs
-The Red Sox entered Saturday’s game with 37 RBI from their No. 1 hitters
-Toronto has hit a home run in 15 of its past 17 games
-Since April 23, Boston’s bullpen ranks second in the AL with a 2.08 ERA
-The Red Sox are just one win shy of becoming the first visiting club with 100 wins at the Rogers Centre
-Red Sox SP Daniel Bard is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in 12 games (one start) at the Rogers Centre
-Blue Jays SP Drew Hutchison is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his first three home starts during his rookie season
-The Red Sox are 24-13 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since the 2010 season


Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
-Washington leads the majors with a 2.95 staff ERA
-Nationals SP Gio Gonzalez is 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA over his last 14 starts, which dates back to last year with the Oakland Athletics
-Braves SP Tommy Hanson is 0-3 with a 4.73 ERA in his last five starts against the Nationals
-The Nationals have won nine of Gonzalez’s 10 starts this season
-Washington has won all four meetings with Atlanta this season, outscoring them by a 24-10 margin
-The Nationals are 3-0 after shutting out their opponent, while the UNDER is 3-0 in those contests

[Jeff Grant]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
-Miami hasn’t won a series at Citizens Bank Park since April 16-18, 2010
-Phillies SP Joe Blanton is 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA in 10 starts against the Marlins
-The UNDER is 35-13-3 in umpire Doug Edding’s last 51 Sunday games behind home plate
-Since May 22, the Phillies rank third in the majors with a .294 batting average, trailing the Rockies (.315) and Tigers (.299)
-Over the last five game, the Phillies have scored 15 of their 31 runs via HR
-The Phillies are 13-4 against the Marlins in their last 17 meetings at CBP
-Blanton has gone 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts versus the Marlins
-The Marlins are 14-13 on the road this season, ranking last in the National League with a .219 average away from Marlins Park


Recommendation: Under 8.5

[Jeff Grant]

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
-Baltimore is averaging 2.3 runs and batting .222 over its last seven games
-Rays SP Matt Moore is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA over his last five starts
-Orioles SP Jake Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.00 ERA in his last five starts
-The Rays have made 45 errors in 53 games, ranking 13th among 14 AL teams
-Orioles closer Jim Johnson has converted 25 consecutive saves since Aug. 14, 2011
-In his last nine starts combined, the Orioles have scored 15 runs for Arrieta. His 3.17 runs of support per game ranks fourth-worst among AL starters
-In five career starts versus the Rays, Arrieta is 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA
-The Rays are 22-12 against right-handed starters this season
-LHB are hitting .353 against Moore this season, the highest mark among LHP in the majors


Recommendation: Over 4 First Five Innings

[Jeff Grant]

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
-Pirates SP James McDonald recorded a 1.54 ERA in and struck out 39 batters in 35 innings in May
-McDonald has allowed just two home runs over 65.1 innings
-Milwaukee has had a different starting lineup in each of its last 16 games
-A win on Sunday would give the Pirates three consecutive series wins for the first time since July 8-20, 2011


Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
-Kansas City is current 6-3 in rubber games this year, winning five of the last seven
-Royals SP Vin Mazzaro will make his first-ever appearance against the club that made him a third-round pick in 2005
-Mazzaro is 2-1 in five career games (three starts) at Kauffman Stadium with a 10.29 ERA
-Oakland has won all three games when ending a road trip this year


Recommendation: Oakland Athletics +103

[Jeff Grant]

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
-White Sox SP Chris Sale is 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts
-Seattle has scored 45 runs over its last four games, hitting .385 with RISP during that span
-Mariners SP Kevin Millwood is 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA over his last four starts
-Chicago is averaging two home runs a game over their last 18 contests
-White Sox have outscored their opponents by 38 runs this season, third-largest differential in the majors (Rangers, 75 and Cardinals, 49)
-Sale is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA in 16 career appearances (three starts) versus AL West opponents


Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Recommendation: Rangers to score first