Jeff Grant: Friday MLB Picks + Insider Report - 6/1

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 11:07 AM

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
-Miami finished May with a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals, posting a 21-8 mark during the month, which was the most wins of any month in franchise history
-OF Giancarlo Stanton matched Dan Uggla’s club record by hitting 12 home runs in a month, while also matching Miguel Cabrera’s mark with 30 RBI
-Philadelphia has posted a record of .500 or better in May in 10 straight seasons
-The Marlins had their worst month ever last June, losing a franchise-record 23 games
-The Phillies are tied with the Atlanta Braves with the most wins away from home (16)
-Stanton has a .163 average with no home runs and one RBI in his last 12 games at Philadelphia
-Marlins SP Mark Buehrle is 4-0 with a 3.19 ERA in his last five starts
-Marlins SS Jose Reyes has the majors’ longest active hitting streak at 11 games, hitting .340 and scoring seven runs over that span
-Phillies SP Kyle Kendrick is 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his past seven games (six starts) against the Marlins

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
-Atlanta has scored 15 runs in winning its last two games, after totaling just 20 during its previous eight-game losing streak
-The Nationals went 2 for 19 with RISP in getting swept by the Marlins in a three-game series
-Washington has limited Atlanta to 11 runs during its five-game win streak in the series, but haven’t won six in a row in this series since 1988-89 as the Montreal Expos
-Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in three career starts against the Braves, his highest ERA against any opponent he’s faced more than once
-Braves SP Mike Minor has allowed an NL-worst 13 home runs and ranks last in the league in ERA. He has gone 0-3 with a 9.08 ERA over his last seven outings

remeedella · 06-01-12, 11:17 AM

are these actual caps? Atlanta > Wash or still writeups?

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by remeedella

are these actual caps? Atlanta > Wash or still writeups?

These are just write-ups, a pick will be clearly marked if I have one in a game

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 11:58 AM

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
-Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has allowed one run and 11 hits over 15 innings of work in his last two starts
-Mets 3B David Wright is 2-for-22 over his last six games, but has hit .405 in 21 career regular-season home games against the Cardinals. Wright is hitless in seven career at-bats versus Wainwright
-Mets SP Johan Santana is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in five career games against the Cardinals
-The Cardinals are 7-13 over their past 20 games, but have averaged 4.8 runs per game over that span. Starting rotation has a 4.81 ERA in that period.
-St. Louis bullpen has a 5.22 ERA since May 11
-In 51 games, the Mets have given up 24 more runs than they have scored
-Mets bullpen entered Wednesday’s game with a 5.06 ERA, ranking last in the league
-The Cardinals boast an NL-best plus-65 run differential

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
-Cleveland pitching staff has a 9.18 ERA during a 1-5 skid, with the starters combining for a 11.89 ERA
-Minnesota has won of the worst staff ERAs in the majors at 5.25, but allowed six total runs in sweeping three home games from the Oakland Athletics
-Twins SP Carl Pavano is 2-3 with a 3.34 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Indians
-The Indians have won 10 of their last 11 overall meetings with the Twins, while going 6-3 at home in this series in 2011
-Indians SP Derek Lowe is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA in five home starts this year, not surrendering a home run in 32.2 innings

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
-Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz has a 1.62 ERA in seven career starts at the Rogers Centre, his lowest mark at a visiting AL ball park, winning his last five starts in Toronto since July 17, 2009
-Toronto held Boston to eight runs in taking two of three meetings at the Rogers Centre earlier this year
-Blue Jays SP Henderson Alvarez is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts
-Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia is the only current Red Sox member to homer against Alvarez, but is expected to miss the game

Recommendation: Under 9.5 runs

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 02:29 PM

Pittsburgh Pirates
-OF Andrew McCutchen has 14 hits in his last 22 at-bats against LHP, ranking second in the majors with a .486 average versus southpaws overall
-Since 2007, the Pirates are 4-38 against the Brewers at Miller Park
-SP Kevin Correia will look to end a career-high tying five-game losing streak, going 0-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last seven outings
-Correia has not received more than two runs of support when he has been in the game in any of his nine starts this year
-Correia went 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA in three starts against the Brewers last year, while losing six of his last seven decisions in the series overall

Milwaukee Brewers
-Tonight marks the beginning of a stretch in which the Brewers will play five straight series against teams whose combined record is 99-152 (.394)
-Milwaukee is 58-20 against Pittsburgh since the start of the 2007 season
-Starting pitchers went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the team’s four-game sweep of the Dodgers
-3B Aramis Ramirez is batting .351 with three HRs and 11 RBI over the last nine games
-SP Randy Wolf is 9-3 with a 4.21 ERA in 19 career starts against the Pirates, including a 1-0 mark and 2.92 ERA in two outings last year

spargament · 06-01-12, 02:33 PM

MIL ML looks nice.

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 03:05 PM

Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
-Reds 1B Joey Votto is batting .467 with four home runs and 16 RBIs during an 18-game hitting streak at MMP
-Reds SP Mike Leake has allowed 13 runs (10 earned) in just 7.1 innings in losing his last two starts versus the Astros
-Astros 1B Carlos Lee is 1 for 12 against Leake, and 5 for 42 (.119) in his last 13 games against the Reds
-Houston was swept in four games by Colorado, getting outscored 40-23 and its starting pitchers posting a 14.04 ERA
-Astros SP J.A. Happ is 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in four starts against the Reds, but has never faced them in Houston
-Happ is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA over his last three starts
-Cincinnati went 12-8 during a 20-game, 20-day stretch that ended on Wednesday
-The Reds’ 3.29 team ERA for May was their lowest for that month since 1997
-Cincinnati has won 30 of its last 43 games and 12 of its last 14 series versus Houston
-Leake is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four games (two starts) at MMP

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
-Baltimore has scored just 14 runs and struck out 49 times during its current five-game losing streak
-Rays SP David Price was 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts against the Orioles last year, after beginning his career with a 4-0 record and 1.95 ERA in five outings to begin the series
-Baltimore leads the AL with an 8-4 record against LHP
-Price has averaged better than seven innings per outing over his last seven starts (2.28 ERA)

Recommendation: No run scored in the first inning (-135)

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 04:04 PM

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
-Chicago held Seattle to seven runs over a three-game series in April
-The White Sox have won eight straight games and 12 of 13
-White Sox SP Jake Peavy is 5-1 with a 2.12 ERA against the Mariners
-Mariners SP Felix Hernandez is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA over his last four starts
-Hernandez is 3-4 with a 3.28 ERA in his career against the White Sox, with all four losses coming in the Windy City
-Seattle has played the most road games (31) in the majors this season (Braves, 29)
-The Mariners are 3-19 over the last three seasons against the White Sox

Recommendation: Over 7

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 04:41 PM

Final MLB play for Friday is the San Francisco Giants -163
2. Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 9.5
3. Orioles/Rays no runs scored in the first inning
4. Mariners/White Sox Over 7

Jeff Grant · 06-01-12, 05:10 PM

Some interesting stats that I've just read on the Yankees:
-Yankees are 6-8 when facing a pitcher making his MLB debut since 2000, winning the last three
-Over the last 30 years, only three LHP have won their MLB debuts against the Yankees
-CC Sabathia is matched up with a SP making his MLB debut for just the second time in his career, dropping a 4-1 loss to Josh Tomlin of the Cleveland Indians on July 27, 2010