A friend of mine wants to take the Twins to be over .500 for the season and wants me to give him 6:1 odds. Should I go higher or lower or just take it?
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well they need to win 63 of their remaining 112 games to do it. thats a 56.2 winning percentage, in other words they need to win at the same pace the st louis cardinals did last season. i cant see them doing it personally cos i think they'll be sellers at the trade deadline and will be even worse for the 2nd half of the season. having said that in the AL central there will be at least 3 non contending teams come august/september so theres a lot of 'meaningless' games that can go either wayComment -
I'd have to have 10/1, they fukkin suckComment -
You should take that bet...
Keep in mind, this is a team with a run differential of -1.42 PER GAME.
Here are some percentages based on their true win percentage for the rest of the season:
If they are truly on average 45% to win each game, their odds of winning 63 out of 112 are: 1.09%
If they are truly on average 47.5% to win each game, their odds of winning 63 out of 112 are: 3.93%
If they are truly on average 50% to win each game, their odds of winning 63 out of 112 are: 10.95%
If they are truly on average 52.50% to win each game, their odds of winning 63 out of 112 are: 24.22%
If they are truly on average 55% to win each game, their odds of winning 63 out of 112 are: 43.34%
6 to 1 odds is 14.29%.
So even if they play 9% better than their current win percent for the rest of the season they are still around 1% to win 63 out of 112. For this to realistically be a bad bet you would have to think that they have been playing or will be 15% better than their current win percentage. I don't see how 6 to 1 is anywhere near fair.Comment
