My first thought is that the Tigers are a donkey bet tonight. Big public team with their #2 starter on the hill tonight, small road favorite, facing a relatively unknown pitcher.
But in thinking this over a bit more and going over the data, both Doug Fister and Zach McAllister are right-handed pitchers who are going to be facing primarily left handed batters tonight. Based on last night's exact lineups, McAllister will face 6 lefties (cf. Cabrara, Young, and Peralta) and Fister will face 8 lefties (cf. Lopez). So probably the best question to ask in handicapping this game is which pitcher will fare better against left-handed hitting?
Well, a look at the numbers reveals an interesting set of findings. First, career numbers, left-handed batters vs. Fister are batting .252, slg = .365 (TBF = 1080) while left-handed batters against McAllister are batting .321 and slg = .427 (TBF = 89). Sure it is a smaller sample size for ZM, but it gives you an idea but for DF it's a larger sample size that is normalizing. Now, based on CLEV's lineup from last night, they are 31/112 = .276 in their career against DF while the Tigers are 2/13 = .153 against ZM which is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion especially with 3 of their left-handed batters having never faced him. To top it off, the 3 right-handed batters the Tigers will trot out tonight are Miguel Cabrara (best right handed hitter in the game, along with Ryan Braun and David Wright I should say), Johnny Peralta (in his career he hits righties better than lefties .271 vs. .259) and Delmon Young (not as good against right-handed pitching). ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER
To date, DF has been very sharp despite not winning a game. His ERA is 1.59 with a WHIP of 1.15 but these numbers are not sustainable and his peripherals suggest a regression eventually but when it will come I am not sure. ZM, on the other hand, has a much higher ERA 4.34 with a WHIP 1.23 but his peripherals are more or less in line with his current ERA. ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER
On strikeouts: Ptichers that have high K/9 are desireable because a strikeout is the single best outcome you can get as a pitcher. ZM has a better strikeout rate 9.16 k/9 (2.89 BB/9) vs. DF 7.54 K/9 (1.99 BB/9). But in exploring the data more, DF strikes out left-handed batters at a slightly higher rate, 16.48% to 13.42% (note, not necessarily statistically significant) while ZM strikes out left-handed and right handed batters at the same rate, 20.22% vs. 20.00%. ADVANTAGE: slight edge to DOUG FISTER
On the bullpen: What can I say other than the Tiger bullpen sucks and that is the wild card here tnght. Now, a strong pitching performence from DF could mitigate that and a good offensive showing too could make the bullpen's role far less important. The saving grace is that the Cleveland bullpen is nothing special, although better. ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Other things of note: Cleveland is NOT a good team especially with Johnny Damon in the lineup. They have a -2 run differential but are 6 games over .500. That should not be the case and it will catch up soon. Detroit, on the other hand, is underachieving majorly, and have a -7 run differential but are 2 games under .500 which is exactly right. Cleveland has been a money maker this season while Detroit has been a money burner. But Cleveland has actually been a money burner at home while Detroit's best role is on the road (note: still a money burner but you don't lay the overpriced juice on the road). Plus, Detroit has been alternating wins and losses for about 5 weeks now so I like them to comeback today and take this game behind a strong pitching performance from Doug Fister.
Donkey bet or not, I would say Tigers as a small fav or pass. Det has the better overall team, better overall pitcher, and CLEV has no real home field advantage to speak of. This is a team the Tigers dominated last year. The only discernable advantage CLEV has is their bullpen and even that is not a very large advantage. The other big advantage CLEV has is that DET is playing poorly and have yet to find their groove and the price reflects that. But based purely on handicapping the starters, DET has the major advantage.
Good luck tonight.
But in thinking this over a bit more and going over the data, both Doug Fister and Zach McAllister are right-handed pitchers who are going to be facing primarily left handed batters tonight. Based on last night's exact lineups, McAllister will face 6 lefties (cf. Cabrara, Young, and Peralta) and Fister will face 8 lefties (cf. Lopez). So probably the best question to ask in handicapping this game is which pitcher will fare better against left-handed hitting?
Well, a look at the numbers reveals an interesting set of findings. First, career numbers, left-handed batters vs. Fister are batting .252, slg = .365 (TBF = 1080) while left-handed batters against McAllister are batting .321 and slg = .427 (TBF = 89). Sure it is a smaller sample size for ZM, but it gives you an idea but for DF it's a larger sample size that is normalizing. Now, based on CLEV's lineup from last night, they are 31/112 = .276 in their career against DF while the Tigers are 2/13 = .153 against ZM which is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion especially with 3 of their left-handed batters having never faced him. To top it off, the 3 right-handed batters the Tigers will trot out tonight are Miguel Cabrara (best right handed hitter in the game, along with Ryan Braun and David Wright I should say), Johnny Peralta (in his career he hits righties better than lefties .271 vs. .259) and Delmon Young (not as good against right-handed pitching). ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER
To date, DF has been very sharp despite not winning a game. His ERA is 1.59 with a WHIP of 1.15 but these numbers are not sustainable and his peripherals suggest a regression eventually but when it will come I am not sure. ZM, on the other hand, has a much higher ERA 4.34 with a WHIP 1.23 but his peripherals are more or less in line with his current ERA. ADVANTAGE: DOUG FISTER
On strikeouts: Ptichers that have high K/9 are desireable because a strikeout is the single best outcome you can get as a pitcher. ZM has a better strikeout rate 9.16 k/9 (2.89 BB/9) vs. DF 7.54 K/9 (1.99 BB/9). But in exploring the data more, DF strikes out left-handed batters at a slightly higher rate, 16.48% to 13.42% (note, not necessarily statistically significant) while ZM strikes out left-handed and right handed batters at the same rate, 20.22% vs. 20.00%. ADVANTAGE: slight edge to DOUG FISTER
On the bullpen: What can I say other than the Tiger bullpen sucks and that is the wild card here tnght. Now, a strong pitching performence from DF could mitigate that and a good offensive showing too could make the bullpen's role far less important. The saving grace is that the Cleveland bullpen is nothing special, although better. ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Other things of note: Cleveland is NOT a good team especially with Johnny Damon in the lineup. They have a -2 run differential but are 6 games over .500. That should not be the case and it will catch up soon. Detroit, on the other hand, is underachieving majorly, and have a -7 run differential but are 2 games under .500 which is exactly right. Cleveland has been a money maker this season while Detroit has been a money burner. But Cleveland has actually been a money burner at home while Detroit's best role is on the road (note: still a money burner but you don't lay the overpriced juice on the road). Plus, Detroit has been alternating wins and losses for about 5 weeks now so I like them to comeback today and take this game behind a strong pitching performance from Doug Fister.
Donkey bet or not, I would say Tigers as a small fav or pass. Det has the better overall team, better overall pitcher, and CLEV has no real home field advantage to speak of. This is a team the Tigers dominated last year. The only discernable advantage CLEV has is their bullpen and even that is not a very large advantage. The other big advantage CLEV has is that DET is playing poorly and have yet to find their groove and the price reflects that. But based purely on handicapping the starters, DET has the major advantage.
Good luck tonight.
