BRP's May Bases - 21-11 +10.85 Units in April

Brp27345 · 05-01-12, 05:23 PM

The Hot Streak: May 1st, 2012

10:18 AM Daily Shootout No comments

BRP’s Picks – May 1^st, 2012
YTD (21-11) +10.85 Units

8:05 P.M. – New York Mets (Jonathon Niese) @ Houston Astros (J.A. Happ)

The Mets come into this game as one of the more surprising teams in baseball, getting off to an impressive 13-10 start so far this season. The Astros come in to this game as a bit of a surprise as well, as there 9-14 record is actually better than most people expected. The talent gap between the Astros and every other team in baseball is one that should start showing its colors soon though.

Jonathon Niese is an ACE, and he is about to prove to everyone this year that what I just said is the truth. He is the kind of kid who after getting his major contract is going to go out there and work hard to prove that he deserves it. Niese has pitched so far this season to a 2.81 E.R.A. and a WHIP below 1, and those numbers are still skewed from his opening day start where he was left in just a bit too long.

J.A. Happ is a below average pitcher, always has been, always will be. Happ has a career E.R.A. of over 4, and he seems to be regressing at the age of 29. It might be to do with him losing interest pitching for a bad team, but his E.R.A. of 5.35 last season was absolutely atrocious. He has gotten off to a 4.7 E.R.A. so far this season, and is showing no signs of turning the sinking ship around.
This pitching matchup is not fair, Mets roll at home!!!

Mets RL -1 at +115 (3 units to win 3.45)
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7:05 P.M. – Texas Rangers (Neftali Feliz) @ Toronto Bluejays (Drew Hutchinson)

The Rangers look like a whole different animal this year, can this team really be this good, I think the answer may be yes. The Rangers come into this game at 17-6 on the season, and even more impressively at 9-1 on the road this year. The Bluejays are playing good ball as well, they come into this game at 12-11 on the season, but just 6-7 at home.

Neftali Feliz is an absolute stud in the making as a 23 year old he is just being stretched out into a starter. Feliz seems to have settled in to his role as a starter farily well, as his E.R.A. this year as a starter is an impressive 2.70, which is right on line with his career E.R.A. overall. Feliz should be rested after basically being given his last start off to keep him fresh, look for him to be exactly that today!
Drew Hutchinson is another one of those young guys (21 years old), who is not that highly touted, and is pitching to match that. The Bluejays have a lot of great arms in the minors, but this is not one of them, and is probably why they are willing to take the risk on tossing him out there. His 6.1 E.R.A. to go along with his impressive 1.74 WHIP in his first 2 starts should be nice for the Rangers bats to feast on tonight!

Much better hitting team, with the higher pedigree pitcher, Roll!!!

Rangers RL -1 at +100 (3 units to win 3)
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10:15 P.M. – Miami Marlins (Ricky Nolasco) @ San Francisco Giants (Matt Cain)

The Marlins have been a massive disappointment this season, as the overhyped team has gotten off to an 8-14 start this season, as well as a horrible 2-9 start on the road. The Giants have started the year at 12-10, and have been playing well at home getting off to a 6-3 start on the year.

Ricky Nolasco is not a good pitcher, pitcher for a struggling team, who can’t play on the road. Nolasco’s career E.R.A. of 4.46 is pretty terrible, but that E.R.A. has been eclipsed as of late with a 4.76 E.R.A. over the last 3 seasons. Nolasco’s name still carries some value for some reason, and I know it does for me as well, but not in the way that it does for most people apparently.

Matt Cain has rewarded the Giants for giving him that big contract, he has rewarded them very, very nicely so far. Cain has had a sub 3 E.R.A. over his last 3 seasons, including an impressive 2.81 E.R.A. at home. Cain has been dominant since signing his contract too, posting a 2.37 E.R.A., and 0.63 WHIP in his first 4 starts this year. Oh, and at home, he has done alright too, just posting 2 complete game shut outs, while allowing 3 hits and striking out 15 batters, yea, decent!

Cain against the Marlins on the road, I like my chances, Roll!!!

Giants RL -1 at +110 (2 units to win 2.2)

Brp27345 · 05-01-12, 05:26 PM

Thoughts and comments as always are appreciated!!!

SOUP · 05-01-12, 05:53 PM

I am on the Mets as well. Niese has been solid thus far and the Mets hitting has been surprisingly well on the road. I also don't see the Mets losing two in a row to the Astros.

Les_Nuts · 05-01-12, 06:04 PM

Do you only ever bet 3 units per play? Like Mets and Giants, GL

Brp27345 · 05-05-12, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Do you only ever bet 3 units per play? Like Mets and Giants, GL

I bet 1 2 or 3 units a game... and I bet 1 2 or 3 games a day...

Brp27345 · 05-05-12, 11:10 AM

The Hot Streak: May 5th,2012

2:43 AM Daily Shootout No comments

BRP’s Picks – May 5th, 2012
YTD (21-14) +2.85 Units

1:05 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Vance Worley) @ Washington Nationals (Gio Gonzalez)

The Nationals come into this game at a very good 17-9 on the year, and even more impressive is there 11-3 record at home this season. The Phillies come into this game a game below .500 on the season, and a game below .500 on the road this year as well. The Nationals have also dominated this series of late, taking the last 6 matchups against their division rivals.

If you have been reading this thread since its start, you know how much I love my boy Gio, and how much money I think there is to be made off of him this year. Gio is simply the most undervalued pitcher in baseball, and his transition to the NL this year has been about exactly what I expected of it. That is that he has gotten off to a 1.82 E.R.A. overall this season, along with a 0.00 E.R.A. at home while allowing 6 base runners and striking out 15 batters over 14 innings pitched.

Vance Worley is also one of my favorite pitchers to back when I’m betting, but he is not a guy to back as much when he is pitching on the road. The Phillies don’t have a potent offense any more to back up Worley, and his E.R.A. is 1.2 points higher on the road then at home in his career. Worley also has a career E.R.A. that is .76 points higher against the Nats then his overall E.R.A. would suggest.
Gio, Gio, Gio. Don’t be surprised to see this kids name in NL Cy Young conversations this year!!!

Nats RL -1 at +120 (2 units to win 2.4)
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7:10 P.M. – Oakland Athletics (Bartolo Colon) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Jeremy Hellickson)

The Athletics are playing fairly good baseball right now, as they come into this game just 1 game below .500 on the year, and exactly .500 on the road this year. The Rays come into this game as the hottest team in baseball, winners of 9 of their last 10 games. The Rays are 19-8 this year, including an amazing 13-1 at home so far.

Jeremy Hellickson is an absolute BEAST, and he only gets better with time. Hellickson is one of the best pitchers at home in all of baseball in his career so far. He has a career E.R.A. of 2.51 at Tropicana in over 100 innings pitched, which is only matched but what ironically is exactly a 2.51 E.R.A. that he is sporting thus far this season.

Bartolo Colon has been very good thus far this season, as he has seemed to turn back the clock a bit so far this season. All that means to me though is that he is due for a regression, and he is due for it to happen very shortly. Colon has also struggled against the Rays over the last 3 seasons, posting a horrible E.R.A. of 6.23 over his last 5 starts against them.
Hellickson at home, and the Rays are on an absolute tear, Straight cash!!!

Rays RL -1 at +100 (2 units to win 2)
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7:10 P.M. – New York Yankees (Hiroki Kuroda) @ Kansas City Royals (Felipe Paulino)

The Royals continue to impress, as they have amazingly gotten off to a 1-11 start this year at home. The Yankees aren’t setting the world on fire either, but they come into this game 2 games above .500 on the season, and 1 game above .500 on the road for the year.

The Royals look to stop the bleeding by bringing back Felipe Paulino off of the DL for his first start this year. The problem with that is that Paulino seems to bring on more bleeding then anything else. Paulino has a career E.R.A. of 5.28, and a very impressive winning percentage of under .250. Paulino also sports an E.R.A. of nearly 9 against the Yankees over the last 3 seasons.

I believe that Hiroki Kuroda will eventually settle down into his role with the Yankees, and that seems to have already started, giving up just 3 runs over his last 2 starts. Over his career Kuroda has been a very consistent pitcher who lacked run support. I have no reason to believe why that consistency shouldn’t change, and why that new found run support should make him a fairly good pitcher this year.

Fade the royals at home, and Paulino just off the DL, Yanks bats are in for some fun!!!

Yankees RL -1 at -115 (2.3 units to win 2)

Brp27345 · 05-05-12, 11:15 AM

BOL on whatever you bet today... thoughts and comments appreciated!!!

Brp27345 · 05-05-12, 02:45 PM

Chalk up the Nats as an early winner!!!

YTD 22-14 +5.25 Units...

Get on the 2 late winners now!

a4u2fear · 05-05-12, 05:05 PM

Feel like it always happens on SBR and similarly with you, post 21-11 record to start thread, immediately go 0-3 in first post, gambling gods don't not like the first post in a new thread

Brp27345 · 05-05-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Feel like it always happens on SBR and similarly with you, post 21-11 record to start thread, immediately go 0-3 in first post, gambling gods don't not like the first post in a new thread

Yea man.... no doubt... got that first winner to come in today though... and many more to come... its was my first 0-3 day since I started posting... brilliant timing!

Brp27345 · 05-06-12, 10:33 AM

The mini cold streak snaps today with the biggest release of the year on the...

Brp27345 · 05-06-12, 10:33 AM

The Hot Streak: May 6th, 2012

8:15 AM Neil Braslow No comments

BRP’s Picks – May 6^th, 2012
YTD (22-16) +0.95 Units
1:05 P.M. – Texas Rangers (Yu Darvish) @ Cleveland Indians (Ubaldo Jiminez)
I have yet to have a step out game yet this season, this will be the first time since I started posting, and will be the biggest wager I have made thus far this season. The Rangers have played very well on the road this season going 10-4 away from their home ballpark. They have also been very good at winning by more than 1 run, as in their last 5 wins, all of them have come by at least 2 runs. The Indians have struggled at home this season, going 5-8 so far this season. The Rangers have also dominated this matchup as of late, taking 8 of the last 10 games against the Indians.
Why Ubaldo still carries any name recognition is absolutely beyond me. Yes, he was very good a couple years ago, yes he threw a no-hitter, but that pitcher is nowhere to be found anymore. Ubaldo managed to post a 5.36 E.R.A. after the all-star break last season, and has backed that up by posting a 5.02 E.R.A. so far this season in his first 5 starts. That 5.02 E.R.A. has also come in starts against the Royals twice, the White Sox, Jays, and A’s. His opponent today is a much better hitting team than any team he has seen thus far this season. Just as a throw in, Ubaldo has an E.R.A. of 9 against the Rangers in his career.
Yu Darvish was shaky in his first start of his career in the MLB, at the same time, who wouldn’t be. Darvish allowed 5 earned runs, and wasn’t able to make it through 6 innings in that first start. Since that start, Yu has made 4 more starts, going 27.1 innings, and giving up just 3 earned over that span, less runs combined than he gave up in just that first start. He has also compiled 19 strikeouts in his last 2 starts, more than he had in his first 3 combined. It is very clear that Darvish has settled in, and that is something that major league teams should be very concerned about!
Ubaldo vs. Yu, Rangers win big!!!
Rangers RL -1 at -120 (6 units to win 5)
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2:05 P.M. – St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) @ Houston Astros (J.A. Happ)
The Astros have been an over machine this year, posting 20 overs to just 7 unders so far this year. The Astros have also posted 6.2 runs per game over their last 5 games played, while the Cardinals have averaged that same 6.2 runs per game over that same span. To add fuel to the fire, the total has gone over the posted number in these teams last 6 games against each other.
J.A. Happ is not a good pitcher, plain and simple, that’s all their really is to say about him. Happ has a 4.6 E.R.A. this season, and has yet to have a start where he has allowed less than 3 runs so far this season. The biggest selling point here is that Happ absolutely HATES pitching against the Cards. Over the last 3 years, in a good sample size of 7 starts against them, he holds an E.R.A. above 7 against the team he is facing today.
Something is clearly wrong with Adam Wainwright, and until that changes, he will be a good pitcher to fade. Wainwright has posted a 6.75 E.R.A. so far this season over his first 5 starts, and has allowed 4 or more runs in all but 1 of those 5 starts. Wainwright has also historically not been the same pitcher on the road that he is at home, posting an E.R.A. nearly 1.5 points higher on the road than at home over his career.
Happ against the Cards, and Wainwright struggling, RUNS, RUNS, RUNS!!!
1^st 5 Total Ov. 4 -110 (3.3 to win 3)
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1:10 P.M. – Arizona Diamondbacks (Trevor Cahill) @ New York Mets (R.A. Dickey)
The Mets are 9-6 at home this season, and the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings when these teams matchup against each other. I really just love the value here with the -1 RL, as getting over 1.5 to 1 on this seems crazy, I will risk the push at the Mets winning by 1 to get that kind of value.
Dickeys E.R.A. is skewed based on one terrible start that he had this season when it rained against the Braves. Dickey is one of, if not the most consistent pitchers in baseball, as he will give you a quality start pretty much every time he takes the mound. His E.R.A. of just above 2 this year at home, to go along with his impressive 3.3 E.R.A. over his last 3 seasons are better indicators of his talent level.
Over his career Cahill has struggled on the road when compared to his E.R.A. while pitching at his home ballpark. Cahill’s career 4.71 E.R.A. on the road is cause for concern, as it is nearly 1.5 points higher than his E.R.A. at home. Cahill has done decently well so far this season, but Dickey should be the better pitcher today.
Taking the Mets and the implied crazy value here!!!
Mets RL -1 at +155 (2 units to win 3.1)

***BRP's May Bases - 21-11 +10.85 Units in April***

BRP's May Bases - 21-11 +10.85 Units in April