This thread will contain daily score projections based off simulations from a software called "Crystal Ball." Most projection services (for instance, AccuScore, DCI, Dunkel, etc) in my opinion don't use the right variables for baseball. As an example, AccuScore doesn't use "Home/Away Pitcher's AF," which is the average of runs support that a pitcher gets either home or away (depending on the game situation) when he takes the mound. I think this variable is very critical, and it is often overlooked by handicappers. For instance, we've all seen very good pitchers often get little run support because their teammates don't feel that they will need many runs in the game. Therefore, the hitters get careless even when matched up against another ace.
Pitcher's Home/Away AF is one of 12 variables I use (along with day/night ERA, last four vs opponent, etc...) in making my projections. Last year I only used these projections near the end of the season, and they did quite well. This year I'm using them the whole year.
How this will work:
I'll simply provide the score projections for every game each day (for as many as I have time to get to) and then just track the system against both the ML and Totals. I'll also show which game I'm actually betting on based on what I consider to be the one or two "best bets" for each day.
Let's Roll.
Pitcher's Home/Away AF is one of 12 variables I use (along with day/night ERA, last four vs opponent, etc...) in making my projections. Last year I only used these projections near the end of the season, and they did quite well. This year I'm using them the whole year.
How this will work:
I'll simply provide the score projections for every game each day (for as many as I have time to get to) and then just track the system against both the ML and Totals. I'll also show which game I'm actually betting on based on what I consider to be the one or two "best bets" for each day.
Let's Roll.
