The fading Warriorfan707 thread

[Inkwell77]

After reading through Warriorfan707 thread I decided this seems the right type of guy to fade, so I am going to post his plays in this thread and then keep track of how you would be doing fading this guy. His standard play is 6 or 7 units it seems so a 14unit play is the equivalent of a 2 unit play for you standard unit folk. I am going to deem his standard play to be 7 units so far my record keeping I will just divide every play of his by 7 and that will be the unit amount. We will not be messing with a to win unit amount, everything will just be the units he bet and then the calculated win loss on each play. Good luck to all!

Day 1: His plays

Angels/A's under 7 +115 (10)
Dodgers/Brewers under 7.5 -115 (6)
Twins/Yankees over 10 -107 (8)
Cubs/Marlins under 7 -107 (6)
Rangers/Red Sox under 8.5 +115 (5)
Arizona ML -162 (15)

Fade plays:

Angels/A's over 7 -120: 1.43 units
Dodgers/Brewers over 7.5 +110: .85 units
Twins/Yankees under 10 -120: 1.14 units
Cubs/ Marlins over 7 +100: .85 units
Rangers/Red Sox over 9 (line moved) -115: .71 units
Pittsburgh ML +155: 2.14 units

[EXhoosier10]

Definitely appreciate what you're doing here. It's going to be well worth your time to fade that dude. Down 5 "units" on the early games? go ahead and put an extra 8 units and lay some chalk on the late-night game. Great strategy

[agendaman]

not to ridicule but why put faith in anyones pks. here incl. mine /i can pk. my own losers quite easily /just check some basic stuff /pitcher/hitter matchup /then your gut feeling/its not nuclear physics//gl

[jbart28]

I like it. Subscribed

[Inkwell77]

Fade plays:

Angels/A's over 7 -120: 1.43 units
Dodgers/Brewers over 7.5 +110: .85 units
Twins/Yankees under 10 -120: 1.14 units
Cubs/ Marlins over 7 +100: .85 units
Rangers/Red Sox over 9 (line moved) -115: .71 units PUSH
Pittsburgh ML +155: 2.14 units

The fade was -.43 units yesterday.


Today the Warrior has played:

4-19-2012

Yankees -210 (4)
Mariners -146 (10)
Marlins -147 (7)
Rangers -113 (4)
White Sox/Orioles over 8 -103 (5)

Fade Plays:

915 ML +200: .57 units
923 ML +140: 1.43 units
901 ML +148: 1 unit
920 ML +105: .57 units
913 under 8 runs -110: .71 units

[EXhoosier10]

Ink, you missed his 21 unit play on 'zona at -162. That would mean Pittsburgh should have been a play for ~3 units @ +150.

[Inkwell77]

Fade Plays:

915 ML +200: .57 units
923 ML +140: 1.43 units +2 units
901 ML +148: 1 unit
920 ML +105: .57 units
913 under 8 runs -110: .71 units PUSH

-.14 units on the day

[Inkwell77]

Ink, you missed his 21 unit play on 'zona at -162. That would mean Pittsburgh should have been a play for ~3 units @ +150.

you're right, but it is tough to keep track and get down on every play with handicappers such as warriorfan who are emotional and add units on a whim. I'm not really sure how to keep track in terms of fade purposes. In terms of keeping track of his record it is easier, but for someone who is trying to fade it is a bit more difficult.
For this I think I'm just going to keep it to plays I see. If anyone wants to add plays as he adds them in his thread that's cool. This has been kind of fun so far. I really don't bet baseball so this has gave me a little action.

[Inkwell77]

So I fuked up the math yesterday, the fade was +.747 units on the first day:

here is it broken down

Fade plays:

Angels/A's over 7 -120: 1.43 units
Dodgers/Brewers over 7.5 +110: .85 units
Twins/Yankees under 10 -120: 1.14 units
Cubs/ Marlins over 7 +100: .85 units +.85 units
Rangers/Red Sox over 9 (line moved) -115: .71 units PUSH
Pittsburgh ML +155: 2.14 units +3.317 units

(3.317+.85)-(1.43+.85+1.14)

= +.747 units

[YourAllAmerican]

-.14 units on the day

He had also added the following:
Jays -132 (4)
Angels -1 -143 (9)
Dbags +1.5 -140 (6)
Phillies -115 (10)

The last won, the other three lost.

It's all gravy to that dude, though. When he has losing bets he just doesn't pay. It's profit or nothing. I enjoy his threads way more than I probably should. They're definitely on my "must read" list each day.

[Inkwell77]

So if I have calculated everything correctly the simple fade is up .604 units after two days

[Inkwell77]

He had also added the following:
Jays -132 (4)
Angels -1 -143 (9)
Dbags +1.5 -140 (6)
Phillies -115 (10)

The last won, the other three lost.

It's all gravy to that dude, though. When he has losing bets he just doesn't pay. It's profit or nothing. I enjoy his threads way more than I probably should. They're definitely on my "must read" list each day.

Damn. So many plays, hard to keep track of em all. Wish I would've known earlier!

[jbart28]

Meh, you may have inspired him to try harder and be more disciplined....BUT NAH

[Inkwell77]

Warrior's plays for Friday the 20th

Reds/Cubs over 7 +115 (7)
Giants +122 (15)
Rays -168 (12)

Fade Plays:

951 under 7 -120 1 unit
958 ML -135 2.14 units
971 ML +160 1.71 units

[EASY_MONEY72]

tough to fade this guy because he raises his "units" until he wins.....if you flat bet against him though - you will be "+ money" for sure.

His thread is great reading if you are just in it for the enjoyment though.

[YourAllAmerican]

Man, I do love reading that stiff's thread. Consistently the funniest stuff on this forum.