Sunday Picks ( 46-42 +8.26 )

[gregm]

Yankees -1 -131 risk 2.62

Blue Jays -1 -122 risk 2.44

Cardinals -1 -124 risk 1.24

Miami -1 -141 risk 2.82

Phillies -1 -134 risk 2.68

Rays -105 risk 1.05

Salami Home runs (ml) -185 risk 1.85

[gregm]

This is looking like a very good day so I am going to add another unit on the yanks -1. Nova is on an incredible run here, going 13-0 in his last 17 starts. He didnt look that sharp in the spring but looked great against Baltimore this year in his only start. He could tie Whitey Ford tonight as the only yankee pitcher tonight with 14 straight wins and he was my most reliable wager last year pitching wise for the yanks.

He does tend to walk batters but his numbers were so phenomenal last year it tends to skew any bad numbers, he had a great last year stat wise with his flyball ratio and those groundball numbers are important in a hitters park like this, you have to keep the ball down here. I dont think last year was a fluke for Nova and going 13-0 with a 3.20 era is certainly an impressive feat.

I really like this wager especially with those patient Yankee hitters facing Jerome Williams, a 30 year old pitcher who has been around. He his coming off a rehab start for class A inland empire and now has to pitch in a hitters park on national tv against one of the most patient and smartest hitting teams in baseball. The yankees can get into any pitchers pitch count very quick and the Yanks ability to lay off pitches and make a pitcher throw strikes should be a huge advantage against a guy with with a 4.36 ERA and 1.45 whip in 43 road games.

His last road games over the last 3 seasons produced an ERA over 7. This one could get ugly pretty quick, Nova was 8-2 last year at home and Williams is going to be in one of the toughest environments in baseball trying to come out of the minors but Williams definitely is not a youngster with nerves and sometime guys really step up in these type of situations. I just hope its not tonight.

Yankees -1 -130 risk 1.30