2012 Picks

[No coincidences]

Chippppppperrrrrrrrrrrrr

Unreal.

Hey paco, you like the Royals tomorrow?

[paco]

I actually do lol

[BigDofBA]

Call me crazy but I like Bedard and the Pirates against my Cardinals tomorrow....

Not that I'll bet it. Just saying.

[No coincidences]

I actually do lol

They're going to beat a lot of teams this year if Hochevar can turn the corner and Duffy takes the next step. Good young hitters and a lot of arms in that bullpen (though inexperienced).

One other lean for Thursday:

LAA -128

[No coincidences]

Call me crazy but I like Bedard and the Pirates against my Cardinals tomorrow....

Not that I'll bet it. Just saying.

Me too, D. Had them tonight though -- holy AJ Burnett.

[BigDofBA]

Me too, D. Had them tonight though -- holy AJ Burnett.

I wish I would played all of my leans today in bases.

I have an Angels/Marlins parlay pending. I don't like playing teams that are -250 but every now and then I will parlay them with a play I like.

[No coincidences]

I wish I would played all of my leans today in bases.

I have an Angels/Marlins parlay pending. I don't like playing teams that are -250 but every now and then I will parlay them with a play I like.

Nothing wrong with playing the Angels at home against the Twins with Weaver on the hill.

Let's hope Miami closes this game out. Should be at least 5-0 by now.

[No coincidences]

Heath Bell is the equivalent of a home run hitter who signed a huge deal after playing in a pitcher-friendly park and then fell flat on his face when he went to a new team with legitimate ballpark dimensions.

[paco]

Think Braves Tt Over anything is worth a play tomorrow regardless if chips or McCann is in...

[No coincidences]

This Marlins team is fvcking brutal to watch.

They do everything wrong.

[BigDofBA]

Bell better not blow this!

[No coincidences]

Bell better not blow this!

He's not even getting a chance to.

Go hit the clubhouse buffet fatty. You're done.

[BigBoi]

Think Braves Tt Over anything is worth a play tomorrow regardless if chips or McCann is in...

Might be worth a look. last time an early game, they lit RA Dickey up. Is Dickey and Blanton similar?

[paco]

Might be worth a look. last time an early game, they lit RA Dickey up. Is Dickey and Blanton similar?

+ bullpen is thin

[No coincidences]

Thankfully that Miami game is done.

10-5, +7.28U today
101-95, +5.53U season

[bmansell33]

Good day nocoin keep it up

[BigBoi]

+ bullpen is thin

Very much so. Papelbon was the only pitcher that Philly didnt use in the pen.

[blackeyeshamus]

Thankfully that Miami game is done.

10-5, +7.28U today
101-95, +5.53U season

[No coincidences]

I'm not interested in the Braves anymore. Might fade the Angels, too, off of last night's no-hitter.

Cubs are a little intriguing. Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh and KC will probably all be plays.

[No coincidences]

Good day nocoin keep it up

Thanks.

[EXhoosier10]

Agree with a lot of your plays, again, Coin. Miami (Sandoval doubtful), Arizona (on an offensive tear), Cubs, with a potential play on KC too. Also made a play on Seattle with Upton doubtful and Longo out.

Question -- You're over talking to LTA about his models and such, but haven't heard you mention anything about how you pick games; only why LAD was a poor play. Do you have your own concrete model that spits out a line, or do you do all the work in your head and go by what feels right? I tend to have a lot of similar picks as you and I'm getting numbers spit out to me, so I'm curious as to your "process".

[No coincidences]

Agree with a lot of your plays, again, Coin. Miami (Sandoval doubtful), Arizona (on an offensive tear), Cubs, with a potential play on KC too. Also made a play on Seattle with Upton doubtful and Longo out.

Question -- You're over talking to LTA about his models and such, but haven't heard you mention anything about how you pick games; only why LAD was a poor play. Do you have your own concrete model that spits out a line, or do you do all the work in your head and go by what feels right? I tend to have a lot of similar picks as you and I'm getting numbers spit out to me, so I'm curious as to your "process".

I have a system, yes, but it's not based as much in the advanced stats like LTA's (though I'm sure it would definitely benefit to dig deeper). You can't argue with his results -- that much is a given. I'm just not as committed to crunching numbers and sticking to what a computer or the model tells me. We're all trying to win more than we lose, and if that means avoiding plays based on sheer gut feel despite what makes sense on paper, sometimes the best play is no play.

[EXhoosier10]

I have a system, yes, but it's not based as much in the advanced stats like LTA's (though I'm sure it would definitely benefit to dig deeper). You can't argue with his results -- that much is a given. I'm just not as committed to crunching numbers and sticking to what a computer or the model tells me. We're all trying to win more than we lose, and if that means avoiding plays based on sheer gut feel despite what makes sense on paper, sometimes the best play is no play.

I'm curious to see what LTA's response is when you posed this thought, because I use my model more as a guideline for plays I should be looking at, and then I dig a little deeper. I'm starting to think my model has a few holes here and there and I have no problem laying off plays in certain situations, I think that is a huge part in modeling as it's tough to build something that holds its ground for many different situations (Park, offense, weather, etc.)

[No coincidences]

I'm curious to see what LTA's response is when you posed this thought, because I use my model more as a guideline for plays I should be looking at, and then I dig a little deeper. I'm starting to think my model has a few holes here and there and I have no problem laying off plays in certain situations, I think that is a huge part in modeling as it's tough to build something that holds its ground for many different situations (Park, offense, weather, etc.)

This is what I was trying to get at. It's not that I don't respect people like LTA and Dexter who have models and systems they stay true to -- quite the contrary, as they are obviously proven to be knowledgeable and educated in their plays -- but everyone's methods have flaws. Why? Because these games are being played by human beings and not computer models. There are a lot of variables to consider -- especially when it comes to baseball -- that the system may overlook or ignore on a given day or for a given matchup.

I'm just saying I don't have all the answers, and neither do my methods.

[No coincidences]

The other difference between myself and some other posters is that I respect the lines oddsmakers put out. They are professionals and they know what they're doing. Does that mean they're always right? Of course not. But they know a hell of a lot more about a given game than I do.

A lot of cappers look at a number as "off" or providing some hidden value. That may be the case, but I think the lines are where they are for a reason much more often than not. In other words, if I see a team -150 or -4 when I feel they should be less, my immediate response isn't to hammer the bet based on my opinion or what I have it capped at, but instead, I wonder if or why that number is what it is for a reason I'm not seeing.

[No coincidences]

CHC +133 (1U to win 1.33)

This rarely ends well.

[No coincidences]

PIT +144 (.5U to win .72)
SEA +156 (.5U to win .78)

Hoping for a split.

[No coincidences]

MIA -116 (1.16U to win 1)

I actually would've taken this for 2U had I locked in a better number earlier.

Cubs were the Cubs. Believe it or not, I locked the Cincinnati ML in at +1500 in the 7th when it was 3-0. Made 7.5U off .5U. Won't count in my record here, but I'll definitely take it.

[SOUP]

MIA -116 (1.16U to win 1)

I actually would've taken this for 2U had I locked in a better number earlier.

Cubs were the Cubs. Believe it or not, I locked the Cincinnati ML in at +1500 in the 7th when it was 3-0. Made 7.5U off .5U. Won't count in my record here, but I'll definitely take it.

Had Cin ML as well and already locked in MIA ML earlier today. NC do you see any value in Toronto tonight?

[No coincidences]

Item #:1Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:WinSport / Period:Live Betting MLB / Game Line:Live Betting - MLB - Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds - Cincinnati Reds 5/3/2012 12:35:01 PM- (EST)
+1500 * Game Notes:The prices spreads and totals reflect the current score of the game.


Yeah, I sort of do SOUP. I actually liked the Angels before Weaver's no-no. Now I'm leaning Toronto. Just hard to trust Morrow; he's so Jeckyll and Hyde. I've never been a huge Haren fan. Two awful bullpens.

[EXhoosier10]

Cubs were the Cubs. Believe it or not, I locked the Cincinnati ML in at +1500 in the 7th when it was 3-0. Made 7.5U off .5U. Won't count in my record here, but I'll definitely take it.

That's awesome, Coin. Glad you were able to make a nice little cash. Mind me asking what book you got those odds? I may start hedging teams with bad 'pens if books are offering +1500 for a team facing the worst closer in the league..

[No coincidences]

That's awesome, Coin. Glad you were able to make a nice little cash. Mind me asking what book you got those odds? I may start hedging teams with bad 'pens if books are offering +1500 for a team facing the worst closer in the league..

Thanks Ex. Marmol is who we thought he was.

BetOnline for this one. I use BOL, SIA, 5Dimes and occasionally Bodog.

[No coincidences]

Marlins strand the bases loaded in the 1st. Surprise, surprise.

[SOUP]

Marlins strand the bases loaded in the 1st. Surprise, surprise.

2-0 start though.

[No coincidences]

KC +128 (1U to win 1.28)
ARI -109 (1.09U to win 1)

Like Cleveland and Toronto, but I'll probably pass.