Mlb 2012

[BiffTFinancial]

Thursday 7.26.2012 final card
2* Rays/Orioles under 9 (-108) - WINNER
2* Pirates -1 (-128) - WINNER
2* Royals/Mariners under 7 (-121) - WINNER
1* Parlay: Pirates ML + Nationals TT over 3' (+190) - WINNER

4-0 +7.9u

sweep em up. nice to see that the break had the desired effect. back at em today, yesterday means nothing if we don't back it up tonight.

259-236-13 +38.54u season to date.

[Gnutti]

nice

[pacocn]

Biff, beautiful work, a true masterpiece

[BiffTFinancial]

Friday 7.27.2012
2* Pirates -1 (-119)

[BiffTFinancial]

Like under but like the Rats better.

Like over in Milwaukee, waiting to see what line does there.

Passing on afternoon game.

Also like Pads and SD/MIA over.

[BiffTFinancial]

nice

Thanks!

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, beautiful work, a true masterpiece

Thanks brother. Yesterday was Brighten the Corners, today I'll try to make Terror Twilight, heh heh. Will do my best to channel Malkmus.

[Madison]

Nice return Biff! Welcome back.

[blackeyeshamus]

<br>
<img src="http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/smilies/20080502/hattip.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Hat tip" smilieid="1562" class="inlineimg"><br>
feeling summer babe/trigger cut from slanted and enchanted, sir!<br>
well done. good luck. thank you.

[newbottles]

Biff I just took about a week off myself. Well done yesterday that is a pleasant way to return.

I am with you on Pirates -1.

I took the Padres TT o4.

Also Mariners TT o3.5.

Two funny teams to bet the over but the numbers look right tonight.

BOL

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice return Biff! Welcome back.

thanks, Madison

<br>
<img src="http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/smilies/20080502/hattip.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Hat tip" smilieid="1562" class="inlineimg"><br>
feeling summer babe/trigger cut from slanted and enchanted, sir!<br>
well done. good luck. thank you.

will be listening to the live version of Summer Babe on the drive home in a few minutes. love Friday night, woot!

Biff I just took about a week off myself. Well done yesterday that is a pleasant way to return.

I am with you on Pirates -1.

I took the Padres TT o4.

Also Mariners TT o3.5.

Two funny teams to bet the over but the numbers look right tonight.

BOL

hey, bottles. funny you should mention Pads TT over as i'm sitting here right now trying to decide between Pads ML and TT over. also starting to take a real shine to A's ML, and my late leans are M's ML and LAD/SF under. gonna think on my drive home and probably book A's and either Pads ML or TT over when i get home. BOL tonight, pal.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* A's ML (-103)
2* Padres ML (+135)

Friday 7.27.2012 updated card
2* A's ML (-103)
2* Padres ML (+135)
2* Pirates -1 (-119)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Parlay: Nationals team total over 3.5 + Diamondbacks ML (+219)

Friday 7.27.2012 updated card
2* A's ML (-103)
2* Padres ML (+135)
2* Pirates -1 (-119)
1* Parlay: Nationals TT over 3' + Diamondbacks ML (+219)

May add Dodgers/Giants under late, hoping can get a plus sign in front of that one. BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Dodgers/Giants under 6.5 (-105)

Friday 7.27.2012 updated card
2* A's ML (-103)
2* Padres ML (+135)
2* Pirates -1 (-119)
1* Parlay: Nationals TT over 3' + Diamondbacks ML (+219)
1* Dodgers/Giants under 6' (-105)

[BiffTFinancial]

Friday 7.27.2012 final card
2* A's ML (-103) - WINNER
2* Padres ML (+135) - WINNER
2* Pirates -1 (-119) - PUSH
1* Parlay: Nationals TT over 3' + Diamondbacks ML (+219) - LOSER
1* Dodgers/Giants under 6' (-105) - LOSER

2-2-1 +2.65u

hit/pushed the 2*, lost the 1*. not a a masterpiece, but an objective success. hard to compare that to Pavement, Malkmus or even Silver Jews. i guess it was like a Maroon 5 album. well, i'll take it.

261-238-14 +41.19u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Saturday 7.28.2012
2* Dodgers ML (+104)
2* Yankees RL (+105)
2* Nationals ML (-129)
2* Tribe/Twins under 9 (-110)
1* Nationals RL (+130)
1* Padres ML (+121)
1* Phillies/Braves under 8' (-107)

lean Cubs, Tigers/Jays over in early games but passing. like Rays/Angels under, gonna think on that one some more. BOL to all today.

[Madison]

Hey Biff,

If you have time would appreciate your thoughts on Sea/KC total 7. Both pitchers have been hit hard by the opponent in their only start and both have horrible era's and ahwg last 3. Was surprised to see 7 even though it is in Sea.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff,

If you have time would appreciate your thoughts on Sea/KC total 7. Both pitchers have been hit hard by the opponent in their only start and both have horrible era's and ahwg last 3. Was surprised to see 7 even though it is in Sea.

Madison - i lean under there, my model has 6.35-6.6 as range for that game. that said, i didn't adjust at all for both SPs having had recent struggles (both last three games and head-to-head), which could be an argument for playing the over. my big concern would be that either offense could be held to 2 runs or less, here or by pretty much any SP who has a good night. M's struggle vs lefties and Royals offense is bad in general right now. BOL if you play it.

[italianbandit]

Good luck Biff. Dodgers at +104 is +EV. If I could rewind back to last night I might throw 5 units instead of just 2. Anyhow good luck.

[Madison]

Thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated. As we've discussed before the line's 7 for a reason but the obvious numbers don't add up, or in this case they do add up.

Having a hard time today getting a real solid feeling for much of anything. We are polar opposites in style as I am a spot player and grind. I'm always amazed at how you can continually crank out 5 or 6 games a night and remain successful. My style is tough when you have 3 or 4 leans but nothing real real solid and then you go 4-0, but I've been successful so I'm hesitant to change.

BOL!

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated. As we've discussed before the line's 7 for a reason but the obvious numbers don't add up, or in this case they do add up.

Having a hard time today getting a real solid feeling for much of anything. We are polar opposites in style as I am a spot player and grind. I'm always amazed at how you can continually crank out 5 or 6 games a night and remain successful. My style is tough when you have 3 or 4 leans but nothing real real solid and then you go 4-0, but I've been successful so I'm hesitant to change.

BOL!

thank you for the kind words, perhaps too kind. as we've discussed before, i would probably benefit from keeping my card smaller. thing is, right now, i like a lot of sides and a total in the late games and am tempted to place a 3-teamer or 4-teamer for 1u to wrap them all together for like +300 to +500. probably not the wisest move, in that i'm basically expecting 3 or 4 big public faves to come home.

my strategy has sort of become to trust my model when it shows more than a particular amount of value and/or to use the model as a proof for an angle that i like before i've looked at the game (generally on totals). i'm also not too proud to admit that there are about a dozen or so guys (on Twitter, SBR, CTG) whose opinions i generally trust, so if they like it and my model likes it, bully for me. unless there's some red flag (weather, ump, Cubs), at some point, i just have to trust in my preparation so long as i don't allow my risk to exceed my tolerance (both in terms of units and juice). then i cross my fingers and pour a drink.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Parlay: Pirates ML + Diamondbacks ML + Rangers ML + Angels ML (+499)

the square-as-your-girl's-cankles-late Saturday-ML-parlay

Saturday 7.28.2012 updated card
2* Dodgers ML (+104)
2* Yankees RL (+105)
2* Nationals ML (-129)
2* Tribe/Twins under 9 (-110)
1* Nationals RL (+130)
1* Padres ML (+121)
1* Phillies/Braves under 8' (-107)
1* Parlay: Pirates ML + Diamondbacks ML + Rangers ML + Angels ML (+499)

BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Saturday 7.28.2012 final card
2* Dodgers ML (+104) - WINNER
2* Yankees RL (+105) - LOSER
2* Nationals ML (-129) - WINNER
2* Tribe/Twins under 9 (-110) - LOSER
1* Nationals RL (+130) - WINNER
1* Padres ML (+121) - LOSER
1* Phillies/Braves under 8' (-107) - WINNER
1* Parlay: Pirates ML + Diamondbacks ML + Rangers ML + Angels ML (+499) - LOSER

4-4 +0.18u

really proud that it took me all of 4 days after my break to go back to playing entirely too many games. bah. oh well, no complaints about a positive day. today, 3-4 plays max for the day games, and if those go well, maybe something on one of the night games.

265-242-14 +41.37u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 7.29.2012
3* Pirates/Astros under 8 (-116)

[Madison]

Sunday 7.29.2012
3* Pirates/Astros under 8 (-116)

Morning Biff,

McDonald regressing ? Last 3 15.2 inn, 22 hits , 16 runs. I like some dogs today. Harrell FF, and Maholm. Also looking at under 8.5 in Balt. Blackley clearly the most overlooked pitcher around.

[BiffTFinancial]

Morning Biff,

McDonald regressing ? Last 3 15.2 inn, 22 hits , 16 runs. I like some dogs today. Harrell FF, and Maholm. Also looking at under 8.5 in Balt. Blackley clearly the most overlooked pitcher around.

morning Madison

i'm not so certain about McDonald regressing. you are absolutely correct about his last three outings. however, of those outings, one was an afternoon game at Coors, one had Sam Holbrook behind the plate (one of my top over umps) and one was at Miller with the roof open and Ryan Braun going 4-4 with 2 homers (one off McDonald) and an error contributing an unearned run. now, maybe those are excuses, or maybe they give some necessary context. either way, in his last three starts, McDonald got in trouble with walks. if he does today, i think that he might not be in for that long. Rats have a good pen that's not been overworked that much of late. plus, it takes two to make an over usually, and Harrell's been outstanding. my biggest concerns are McDonald's recent form and Harrell throwing 121 pitches last time out. all that said, my model puts this in the neighborhood of 6.35-6.75 and i think that it will drop.

[BiffTFinancial]

Morning Biff,

McDonald regressing ? Last 3 15.2 inn, 22 hits , 16 runs. I like some dogs today. Harrell FF, and Maholm. Also looking at under 8.5 in Balt. Blackley clearly the most overlooked pitcher around.

like under in Baltimore, that's on my list of leans and pretty high too. have a range of 6.95-7.65 for that one.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* A's/Orioles under 8' (-106)

Sunday 7.29.2012 updated card
3* Pirates/Astros under 8 (-116)
2* A's/Orioles under 8' (-106)

[BiffTFinancial]

lotta leans

Braves
Nats
Cards
Reds
Dbacks
Red Sox
Dodgers/Giants under 6
Tigers/Jays over 9'
Phils/Braves over 7'
Mets/Dbacks under 8'
White Sox/Rangers over 10'

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Parlay: Nationals ML + Reds ML (+168)
2* Diamondbacks -1 (+135)

Sunday 7.29.2012 updated card
3* Pirates/Astros under 8 (-116)
2* A's/Orioles under 8' (-106)
2* Parlay: Nationals ML + Reds ML (+168)
2* Diamondbacks -1 (+135)

[Madison]

Missed Harrell @ 121 pitches. Thx.

[Madison]

Latos has some curious numbers if you compare his last 6 starts. last 3 he has 2 subpar starts, one poor, and his innings have been cut back. There citing ankle in his last but it looks curious the 2 starts before that as well. 75 pitches 2 starts back. Certainly not the Latos we saw early on.

[BiffTFinancial]

Latos has some curious numbers if you compare his last 6 starts. last 3 he has 2 subpar starts, one poor, and his innings have been cut back. There citing ankle in his last but it looks curious the 2 starts before that as well. 75 pitches 2 starts back. Certainly not the Latos we saw early on.

you're right, of course. similar to McDonald, although i can't be certain that Latos won't struggle, i like the fact that i have one of the better pens around to take over if it happens.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sports Insights @SportsInsights
#MLB #Pirates - Andrew McCutchen, Rest, Doubtful - was not in the starting lineup Sunday (7/29) at Houston

well, that explains the drop on the Rats/Astros total

[newbottles]

I took a bold swing at Astros +1 -109

The shitstreak spooks me but if they weren't on that streak I would see this as an easy dog ML bet today.

Look closely at that price for a +1 and nice matchup for those doormats.

I also bet Marlins TT u4 and Orioles TT u4. Now looking at later games.

Most weekends I sleep in and have to focus on early games ASAP, then move on down the card. I am on east coast time.

BOL