BrianL's April 2012 MLB Thread

[BrianLaverty]

Will be putting all plays in this thread for the month of April... much easier for me to add plays in one continuous thread. As much as people know me for my CBB picks, I am actually stronger at MLB.

I will be adding writeups whenever I can, but time is limited for me sometimes.. today being a perfect example.


All plays will be between 1 and 2 units.... it is extremely rare that I bet more then 2 units, but they do occur every now and then. All plays are with listed pitchers... All plays will be posted on my twitter account (TheBrianLaverty), and I will sometimes put plays on there that aren't on here due to time constraints...


Without further ado... First play of the year


- Cardinals/Marlins Under 3.5 -105 (1st 5)- Risking 1.05 Units


good luck everyone... remember money management will always be key to winning longterm.

[BrianLaverty]

Record: 1-0 (+1.0 Units)

(4/5) Red Sox/Tigers Under 7 -110 (Risking 1.1 Units to win 1)


This is a very low total for two of the best offenses in the league, but feel like its a great spot for a potential 2-1, 3-2 game. Everyone knows how great Verlander is, and he has managed to put up good numbers every year vs. the Sox... He's in the prime of his career right now, and I really feel that he will have a year this year that rivals the amazing one from last year. He's been a notoriously slow starter in April over the years, but changed taht around last year with a 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts in April. Not only that, but he has been a superb daytime pitcher over the years, including last year where he has an amazing 0.78 WHIP in 10 day starts. Think he will definitely pitch a gem tomorrow against a Sox lineup that he has faired very well against.


On the other side is a pitcher who I feel is going to actually rival Verlander for the Cy Young this year. Lester has had huge expectations over the last 4 years and its safe to say that he hasn't lived up to it at all. When the Sox crashed last September, he was a huge part of it, and from everything I've seen, he out for revenge to make up for that terrible stretch. Just like Verlander, he pitches better during the day compared to at night. Overall, I feel like its a good situation for Lester to come back and make up for last year.


Would not be shocked to see either pitcher to go 7 innings without giving up a run....


(4/5) Cubs +140 (Risking 0.5 Units to win 0.7 Units)

Small value play here on the Cubs. Just not buying into Strasburg & Washington being a road favorite of -150 on opening day... This is a line that is usually reserved for proven, elite starting pitchers and though Strasburg might be there soon, he's not there quite yet. Most will agree that Dempster is not but an average SP, but his #'s vs. Washington have been very good: 5 straight starts of 7+ IP and 3 ER or less. I think this line is just a tad bit high and the Nationals are just getting way too much respect that they don't really deserve at this point.

[BrianLaverty]

$$$$$$$

[BrianLaverty]

YTD: 2-1 (+1.5 Units)

Friday Day Games:

- White Sox/Rangers Under 9.5 (1.5 Units)
- Baltimore ML -133 (1 Unit)

GL... no time for writeups... will add night plays later tomorrow.

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

YTD: 3-1 (+3 Units)

Adding:

(4/6) Arizona -107 (1.5 Units)

Great pitching matchup, but I feel that there is a definite edge to Arizona on it. Ian Kennedy had a monster season, and I don't see him regressing at all this year. The team that he pitched best against was the Giants last year.... In 5 starts, he pitched 37 innings and gave up just 24 hits, 5 ER and just 2 home runs. Arizona outscored the Giants 30-9 in these 5 starts. He was excellent at home last year (11-2, 2.64 ERA), and getting him at close to even at home is a must bet.

Lincecum continues to be one of the best pitchers in the majors, but Arizona really had his number at the end of last year. In 4 starts total vs. Arizona last year, Lincecum went 1-3, giving up 12 runs in 25 innings. On top of this, Lincecum's fastball velocity is down in the spring, and he also got rid of his slider. It might take some time for him to adjust to having 3 pitches, and he obviously is not 100% himself yet. Arizona is a lineup that will take advantage of any weaknesses you might have..... love Arizona in this one.

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +100 (1 Unit)

I don't take runlines in MLB too much, but feel like this is a great spot for a blowout on opening night for the Angels. The Angels lineup has absolutely destroyed Chen.... Abreu is 9-15, Wells is 6-19 with 3 HRs, Kendrick is 3-7 with 2 HRs, and Pujols is 3-8 with 2 HRs. As a whole, the Angels are hitting .380 vs. Chen. He is also not someone I trust on the road and I can see him giving up 4-5 runs in 5 innings easily.

Weaver on the other hand was absolutely stellar last year, and I expect more of the same tonight. Over the last 3 years, Weaver has been incredible at home (23-9, 2.20 ERA) and has been a fast starter in April (10-1, 1.95 ERA). He's faced Kansas City 4 times over the last 3 years and has given up just 21 hits and 2 ER in 28.1 IP. Don't see Kansas City having any luck tonight....

[BrianLaverty]

6-1, +6.5 units

[No coincidences]

Nice start.

[BrianLaverty]

One play for Saturday AM:

Mets/Braves Under 7 (1 Unit)


More later in the day.

[Jeffie]

nice start man, gl on saturday

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

- Red Sox ML -106 (1.5 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:


- Orioles +107 (1 Unit)
- Phillies/Pirates Under 6.5 (1 Unit)

[BrianLaverty]

2 more winners tonight....

YTD: 9-2 (+8 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

One play for Sunday afternoon:

- Red Sox/Tigers Over 8.5 (1 Unit)

[BrianLaverty]

YTD: 10-2 (+9 Units)

[hydrosmak]

Keep it up man, hot start!

[BrianLaverty]

For Monday:


- LA Angels -159 (1.5 Units)


will add more tomorrow.

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

Marlins/Phillies Under 3.5 1st 5 (risking 1.06 units to win 1)

[BrianLaverty]

Final Card:

- Marlins/Phillies Under 3.5 1st 5 (Risking 1.06 to win 1)
- Angels ML -159 (Risking 2.39 to win 1.5)
- Cubs/Brewers Under 8.5 (Risking 2.26 to win 2)
- Cardinals/Reds Over 9 (Risking 1.15 to win 1)

[TwiistedDragon]

I am with you on la angels. Keep up the good work

[BrianLaverty]

Ytd: 12-4 (8.1 units)

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

- Detroit -105 (Risking 1.57 to win 1.5)

[BrianLaverty]

Adding a small play on Pittsburgh +200 (Risking .50 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

Tonight I am on:

- Red Sox/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -113 (1.5 Units)
- Orioles +131 (1 Unit)
- Mets -102 (1 Unit)
- Rangers/Mariners Under 5 1st 5 +110 (1.5 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

Been waiting all day to see where the line would close on this.. but looks like i'll have to settle for 6.5...

Adding: Padres/Diamondbacks Under 6.5 -115 (1.5 Units)


Good luck everyone.

[BrianLaverty]

Lucky win for the Sox over, but tough loss on the Orioles bet... Orioles went 0-8 in RISP and had chances to really break it open eearlier in the game... it all evens out in the end.

Updated YTD: 15-7 (+10 units) with 1 pending.

[BrianLaverty]

White Sox/Indians Under 7 (2 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

Reds/Cardinals Under 7.5 (1.5 Units)

[HoulihansTX]

Wow Masterson shit the bed early.

[BrianLaverty]

Yep.. didnt expect that.. usually rock solid at home, and in day games.

[BrianLaverty]

One play tonight:

- Houston +112 (1.5 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

Updated YTD: 17-9 (+9.32 Units)

[BrianLaverty]

For Thursday:

- Washington Nationals -102 (2 units)

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

- Tampa Bay +111 (1 Unit)

[BrianLaverty]

Adding:

- Phillies/Marlins Under 8 -109 (1.5 Units)

Thats it for today... GL Everyone.