Fading the STL Cardinals in April Thread

[Illusivecone]

Hey all,
I will be fading the Cards everyday for the rest if this month.

Except for 6 games versus the Cubs (a tough rival), it is a tough schedule for them.

Combine this with World Series hangover, the turnover at management, key injuries (Craig, Carpenter) and high roster turnover, it will be a rough month for them.

I'll be running a $100 labby line and will be using this thread to track my plays.

Only exception is when the Cardinals are at home and I can get the opponent +1.5 at -150 or less (Wainwright rule).

[Illusivecone]

Play 1- Miami Marlins -180

50 - 50

180 to win 100

[Illusivecone]

What a great start!

Already reconsidering...

0-1 -1.8u

[Illusivecone]

0-1 -1.8u

50-50-180

Play 2: Millwaukee Brewers -131

301 to win 230

[Allure]

You better stop doing this. Cardinals are raping the shit out of that fukking bum called Gallardo.

[goblue24]

This might get expensive

[Illusivecone]

Common guys 11 innings is not a large sample size. Give it some time.

[JJJ]

Cardinals look good lineup doesnt miss a beat without Albert

[Illusivecone]

0-2 -4.81 u

Thinking of establishing a loss ceiling

[greenhippo]

0-2 -4.81 u

Thinking of establishing a loss ceiling

Then what will you bet with the other 2 weeks of the month to go?

[drfunkmaster]

[Illusivecone]

I figured with such insightful commentary, I would follow your sharp plays and then I saw your spreadsheet

[JRYAN34]

put the dough on greinke tomorrow.....cardinals will fall apart have a little run, and sh!t will hit the fan

[Illusivecone]

0-2 -4.81u

50-50-180-301

Play 3: Milwaukee Brewers -118

414 to win 351

Soft cap established at -15u

[Illusivecone]

If Cards go 3-0 they will have beat:

- Josh Johnson
- Yovani Gallardo
- Zack Greneke

[Illusivecone]

1-2 -1.3u

[njb5572]

I would hope that you looked into more perspectives than just a "World Series hangover, the turnover at management, key injuries (Craig, Carpenter) and high roster turnover" but I'm not holding my breath. Are any of those tangible advantages? This is not smart.

Yes I am a Cardinals fan, but I would pose this argument for any system with any team using these parameters.

[Illusivecone]

I would hope that you looked into more perspectives than just a "World Series hangover, the turnover at management, key injuries (Craig, Carpenter) and high roster turnover" but I'm not holding my breath. Are any of those tangible advantages? This is not smart.

Yes I am a Cardinals fan, but I would pose this argument for any system with any team using these parameters.

Of course, I'm not ahead because I take foolish chances. This has no possibility if ending worse than -5u, but could be very profitable if Freeze stops beasting.

[Illusivecone]

1-2 -1.3u

50-180

Play 4: Milwaukee Brewers -110

253 to win 230

[GimpedMaster]

His name is Freese, and this is the most hilariously awful 'system' I've seen in some time...

[Illusivecone]

His name is Freese, and this is the most hilariously awful 'system' I've seen in some time...

Yeah, sorry after all that cash he won me last October, you would think I could spell his name right

If this was a system it would be hilariously awful, there are no triggers or possible backdated results with this. This is just a fade using a labby line to manipulate bet sizes.

A straight fade probably would have worked but breaking down the schedule, the Cards are pigeon holed this month. This team will start missing the greatest hitter of his generation very soon, it looks like Matt Holliday already is. This team is a Beltran or Freese injury away from bleeding money.