Roaddog Season-Long Baseball

[RoadDog]

4/8 plays:

New York Yankees +108 1u

Houston Astros +110 1u

Minnesota Twins +100 1u


YTD: +3.52u

[RoadDog]

Adding:

PHI/PITT over 7.5 -105 1u

Masters Pairings - Hunter Mahan over Matt Kuchar -125 1u

[RoadDog]

Anyone agree/disagree here? Let's get some conversation going.

[Madison]

Morning Dog,

FWIW ... staying clear of siding with Hou early as they are yougest team in the majors with like 10 first year players. Expect them to struggle early. Believe they had 4 errors in opener?

Rode Worley hard last year. He had a bad last outing in ST so that might bode well for your over as wel as he gave up 6 in 6 vs Pitt LY while going 11-3 personal and 16-5 team. GL

[RoadDog]

My Houston bet is based solely on the starters. Colorado hits .222 against Norris, and he had a good spring. Opposing batters hit .209 off of him.

Nicasio allowed 35 hits in 27.2 spring innings. He also allowed opposing batters to hit .310 off of him with a 1.52 WHIP. Houston at + money with everyone betting Colorado. I'll take a shot.

As for the PHI/PITT over, 20 mph winds blowing straight out to center. Dont believe MacDonald or Worley will have shut down games especially in this weather.

[Madison]

Just about to report wind conditions in Phi over.

Toying with Mia/Cinn over 9. 9.5 many places. Hate the big # but wind also favorable out to right at 20 and Zambrano 21 bb in 21 inn and Arroyo. If it doesn't get over it should be real close. GL

[RoadDog]

2-2 in baseball today for +.10u

YTD: +3.62u

[dugdogg]

just out of curiosity...how much can you rely on stats about a teams batting average against a pitcher historically...it could be a totally different lineup from year to year... what good is a stat like "Colorado hits .222 against Norris"

honestly??

[RoadDog]

just out of curiosity...how much can you rely on stats about a teams batting average against a pitcher historically...it could be a totally different lineup from year to year... what good is a stat like "Colorado hits .222 against Norris"

honestly??

Because the .222 signifies what the CURRENT players on Colorado have collectively hit against Norris in their careers. If you dont want to know what the current hitters do against a SP, then I suggest you cap another sport.

[boroguy14]

I agree with you on the knowing the BA of current players versus pitcher. That's a key stat to know and something important to consider. We know it's not a sure thing or else it wouldn't be called "gambling"....lol. Keep up the good work, Dog. I am sure there are a lot of people following silently. I thought I would say hello and thanks for stepping up with your picks!

[dugdogg]

ok i guess i was confused what the stat meant. so it's taking the batting average of the current lineup even if they played on a different team in previous years?

[RoadDog]

Yessir

[SlickRick1382]

ok i guess i was confused what the stat meant. so it's taking the batting average of the current lineup even if they played on a different team in previous years?

Correct. You can check that stat out on ESPN.com among other sites but always good to know what players fare well or badly against certain pitchers. Also good to see the sample size and make sure it's not just a few AB's

[RoadDog]

Good morning guys, i have a couple solid leans now (in love with the White Sox today), what's everyone feeling today?

[TC Woods]

Good morning guys, i have a couple solid leans now, what's everyone feeling today?

Personally.... I'm "feeling" like I got my azz kicked yesterday and would love to rebound today..

Leans are Nats, cards,

[RoadDog]

Damn, that sucks TC. Baseball has been tough so far. I see a lot of good cappers in the red. I really like the White Sox today. Chris Sale is under the radar. He's going to have a break-out year. He's hell on left-handers and the Indians love throwing 5-6 out there at ya. Josh Tomlin got destroyed in spring.

It also helps that the Indians bullpen is fried from the 2 extra inning games vs. Toronto. The Sox did not use any of their viable relievers last night v. Texas. I'm gonna wait til the line goes down, its at -108 at my book, should be able to get this at plus money.

[RoadDog]

Here's a write-up I just posted in another thread.

Sale is a stud. Lefties cant touch him with his velocity and motion. The Indians will run 4-5 lefties out there. Current Indians hitters are a combined 6-39 off of him with one extra base hit (a double). He's also struck out 18 Indians and walked three.

Tomlin on the other hand hasn't found it yet. He's a soft-tossing junk-baller who got lit up in spring. He went 0-3 with a 6.18 era. 44 hits allowed in 27.2 innings. Opposing batters hit .367 off of him.

The White Sox are most certainly the play today. I am not putting this one in yet. I can see the line dropping already. I want this as close to + money as possible.

[RoadDog]

Chicago White Sox +100 2u (Stepping it up one unit on this one)

YTD: 3.62u

[TC Woods]

Chicago White Sox +100 2u (Stepping it up one unit on this one)

YTD: 3.62u

Thanks for the writeup, I'm with you on this one

[RoadDog]

Thanks for the writeup, I'm with you on this one

Solid. I know more about the White Sox than any team in the league. This is a great spot for them. Let's cash bro.

[hustlehard617]

You got a good number on the Sox Dog it's at -107 now

[RoadDog]

You got a good number on the Sox Dog it's at -107 now

Yep, it was +100 at Heritage early-morning.

[hustlehard617]

Damn I'm liking them I better grab it now probably will continue rising

[RoadDog]

-110 is probably the highest it will go. Just my guess.

[RoadDog]

Chicago White Sox +100 2u (Stepping it up one unit on this one)

YTD: 3.62u

Cash the Sox! Big win and excited to see Sale dominate. Nice effort by the pen as well.

YTD: +5.62u

[TC Woods]

Cash those white sox

let's do it again tomorrow

[RoadDog]

Cash those white sox

let's do it again tomorrow

Let's get it

[romoney]

you opened my eyes to Sale...he looked sharp...I was on the sox tooo...Nice call dog!!!

[RoadDog]

you opened my eyes to Sale...he looked sharp...I was on the sox tooo...Nice call dog!!!

Consistently 95 on his 4 seamer with huge movement and a wipe-out slider to finish. The kids a stud.

[SlickRick1382]

Cash the Sox! Big win and excited to see Sale dominate. Nice effort by the pen as well.

YTD: +5.62u

Good work bro. On a day with some bad luck (Nats collapsing, LTA's pick had a rough outing, etc.) I threw a few more units on Chicago to keep me in the low red's .... lol ...

Great pick ....

[TC Woods]

Lean on Det -115 and the over in the early game.

I'll wait 4 your thoughts

Later - SL

[RoadDog]

Tampa Bay/Detroit Under 8.5 -105 1u

YTD: +5.62u

(Sorry TC haha, have to go with the under)

[TC Woods]

Tampa Bay/Detroit Under 8.5 -105 1u

YTD: +5.62u

(Sorry TC haha, have to go with the under)

No need to apologize, I'm on the under with you

[RoadDog]

Tampa Bay/Detroit Under 8.5 -105 1u

YTD: +5.62u

(Sorry TC haha, have to go with the under)

Cash the under 5-2. Nice and easy til the end. Nice tail TC, glad I got you off that over hahaha.

YTD: +6.62u

[SlickRick1382]

Damn wish I would of played it ....

Nice work Road Dog