SCAB MAN season thread

[the scab man]

Always wanted to post a season thread and last year I did pretty good in MLB when I bet so I figure I'd start it up.

First play of the 2012-13 year.....

SEA - 2 Units (-140)

Seems like an obvious pick to play the favorite when there is only 1 game but I think SEA is in a good spot here. SEA is 3-0 the last 3 opening day games and OAK is 0-3. The last 2 years they have started the season off against each other with King Felix pitching both games and dominating both of them. Felix is making his 4th straight opening day start while McCarthy is making his first. I expect the veteran to win the pitching match up and also look for him to last longer than McCarthy.

Hernandez has lasted 8+ innings in 2 of those 3 opening day games so that shows that SEA is afraid to let him go the distance even with it being an opening day game. Also, those 2 opening day games these teams played against each other were both in OAK and I expect this crowd to be a heavenly SEA favored crowd with Ichiro being on there side. Only thing I am worried about is a low scoring 2-1 or 2-0 win by OAK but I think McCarthy will get jumped on early being his first opening day start.

Good luck everyone!

[the scab man]

No play on the second game of this series, nothing seems to stick out to me on this game at all

[the scab man]

Will have a write up in a little bit....but want to get this out there before it starts....

MIAMI MARLINS - 1 Unit (-175)

[the scab man]

This was the write up I had but I couldnt get home to post it in time before the game.....

While I don't like laying a bunch of chalk on a game, it's a high line for a reason and I think it's the best looking play with there only being one game on the day. The Marlins want this game, much more than the cardinals I feel. They have a new ballpark and new city and much of the offseason has been about them when there much other bigger story lines that could've gotten more attention (Pujols leaving the team that the marlins are going to be playing). Marlins win the managerial matchup in this game with the more experienced Ozzie Guillen as opposed to Mike Matheny, who is the youngest manager in baseball. With this being the first game without Tony La Russa in 15 years, it's going to be a completely different feeling that the Cardinals will have to get used to.

Cardinals are in for a long homestand to start the season (7 games, 8 days) that I'm sure they are not looking forward too. As I said before, Marlins want this game more than the Cardinals do. Johnson has looked excellent in spring training, last year at home the Marlins won 4 of 5 of his starts with those 4 wins coming with Johnson giving them quality starts. People believe the Marlins are going to need time to gel together and that they shouldn't be a big home fav here, but there free agent signing were mostly pitchers (Bell, Buehrle, and Zambrano were the big pitchers while the big hitter was Reyes) so the need for geling isn't that good of an arguement in this spot.

While I think the marlins will struggle the first couple months of the season, I believe on opening day they will have the intensity and the loud home crowd they need to lead them to a win this game.

clearly this write up isnt working out too well :sigh:

[the scab man]

YTD...1-1 +.25 units

For Thursday 4/5....

LA DODGERS - 2 Units (-150) 7:05 EST
I do not know how this line isn't -200. Kershaw dominated the Padres last year, going 3-0 (2 starts in SD) in 3 starts with a 1.77 ERA and 2 CG games. The Padres are a very bad team and there lineup is a great indication of why they were 71-91 last year. The only way SD wins this game is if LAD score 0 or 1 run (which 1 might honestly be enough in this matchup).


DETROIT TIGERS - 1 Unit (-140) 1:05 EST
Arguably the best pitcher in baseball is opening up on the mound for the Tigers and to start a season, you don't want to have to face him. The atmospher is going to be great with the addition of Prince Fielder. Miguel Cabrera is going to carry over what he was doing in the spring. Last year Verlander was 1-1 against the Red Sox, his win he went 7.2IP with 4H and no runs while his loss was 8IP and 3 runs allowed, both very good and quality starts. His 7.2IP of shut out ball came at home, like this game.

CINCINNATI REDS - 1 Unit (-145) 4:05 EST
Cueto is a very underated pitcher, his past records do not indicate how well he has pitched, he is the ace of a very underated Reds team. Out of Cueto's 24 starts last season, he let up more than 3 runs just 3x, and only twice he let up more than 3ER. Marlins will have to travel to Cincinatti to play a 4:10EST game after playing a night game. Add the short amount of time to travel and the long awaited emotional debut I believe the Marlins start off the season 0-2.

ATL BRAVES @ NY METS U7 (-110) - 1 Unit 1:10 EST
Atl is a team that I believe will struggle this year, they do not have a solid shortstop and there season may rely on a young talent in Jason Heyward. The reason why thats a bad thing is because you want a lineup relying on a proven veteran, such as Chipper Jones. Jones is just getting too old for the game now, and as for tomorrow he will not be in the lineup. The Mets do not score runs at a premium and losing Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran do not help. Playing in a pitchers park helps the under here also as I believe this is a low scoring game.

CLEVELAND INDIANS - 1 Unit (+110) 3:05 EST
Im kind of surprised to see Indians as an underdog here. Last year, there records were 1 game off, while Indians hosted a winning record and Blue Jays supported a losing record while on the road. Masterson had a very similar year last year compared to Romero. Materson was 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and Romero was 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA. This is the weakest of my plays today but Indians should not be an underdog here and I am willing to take a chance with them.

[the scab man]

Good day so far going 2-0 +2 units, hopefully reds can hold on to this lead....the Indians need to get a walk off so I can stop worrying about it! If it wasn't the opener masterson went the distance!

[the scab man]

My best play of the day is still yet to come to! U guys gotta hop on the dodgers! Kershaw owned the padres last year and he's gna do the same today!

[the scab man]

Cant argue with how today going 4-1 +4 units, even tho if it wasnt for a terrible 9th i would've went undefeated. Anyone watch that Indian game? Terrible fundamental baseball! Not running balls out, terrible defense, missed bunts lol and the manager brings in a guy to close the game who was hurt all spring and only threw 3 innings! Anyways thank god dodgers bullpen came threw for the 2 unit win....

YTD 5-2 +4.25 units....will have tomorrows plays in about a half hr

[the scab man]

YTD 5-2 +4.25 units....

For Friday 4/6

ARI DIAMONDBACKS @ SF GIANTS UNDER 7 - 3 Units (-115)
If last year wasn't an indication that pitching dominates then I don't know what is. We had a 24 game winner, a pitcher who was the AL MVP, and 3 no hitters (not to mention there were 6 the year before that!). Two of the best go at it tomorrow night in SF and last time these guys met, the game ended in a 1-0 win for SF. Last year they both posted sub 3 ERA. Last year Kennedy posted a 1.22 ERA in 5 starts against SF, if he had one or two starts against SF last year that were good it'd be different, but 5? that tells me he owns that lineup. Lincecum, on the other hand, posted a 1-3 record against ARI with a 4.68 ERA. The good news here is that Buster Posey was the catcher for the win (8.0IP 0 runs) and was not catching for the 3 loses since he was injured for the year. This game continues the trend that yesterday started with low scoring games.

COL ROCKIES @ HOU ASTROS OVER 7.5 - 1 Unit (-125)
Bottom line here is neither team has a stand-out ace at all. The astros starting Wandy Rodriguez, who had a good year last year but absolutely struggled last year going 11-11 with a 3.49 ERA. The Rockies are starting Jeremy Guthrie.....really? Have they not watched him the last 5 years in Baltimore. Sure the AL East is a much tougher division as far as lineups go but an ace can pitch against anybody and to come out on opening day and throw Guthrie I think doesn't look good for the Rockies and there season. This tells me they are relying on their lineup to win games and thats exactly what I think will happen tomorrow.

[the scab man]

All the lines I post are from bovada.lv

[the scab man]

still time to take the under!

[the scab man]

Ugly day today, lincecum just didnt have it from the start.

Dont have much time so I cant do write-ups right now... but for saturday 4/7

CHC CUBS (-115) - 3 Units
BOS RED SOX (-110) - 1 Unit
LA ANGELS (-200) - 1 Unit
SEA/OAK U6.5 (-120) - 1 Unit

[the scab man]

The cubs blowing that lead in the 8th really f**ked me, terrible day yesterday i will adjust units later tonight....For sunday 4/8

PHILLIES (-135) - 2 UNITS
INDIANS (-115) - 1 UNIT
YANKEES (-105) - 1 UNIT

[the scab man]

Solid 7-9 -8.7 units on the year awesomeeeeeee. Another late lead blown, this time by the phillies. 3x thats happened this year and its only been 4 days! Anyways, can only go up from here. Im only going to be doing 1 unit per play for atleast the next 2 weeks until we can figure out which teams are good or not

[the scab man]

Monday 4/9

MIA/PHI OVER 7(-110) - 1 UNIT
COL ROCKIES (-) - 1 UNIT
STL/CIN UNDER 9 (-110) - 1 UNIT

[the scab man]

YTD 9-10 -8.35

TUESDAY 4/10

CLE INDIANS (-125)
BOS/TOR OVER 9.5 (-110)
NY METS (-125)

All 1 unit

[the scab man]

Got as lucky as anyone can get with that over yesterday lol makes up for one of the previous bad losses i took.

YTD 10-11 -8.6......for Wednesday 4/11

NY YANKEES (-170) - 3 Units
OAK ATHLETICS (-125) - 1 Unit - 3:35 EST

Let's go yankees!

[the scab man]

Adding a game.....

MIA/PHI UNDER 6 (-115) - 2 Units

[the scab man]

Stupid of me to add that under bet but thank god for swisher

YTD 12-12 -6.9 units. For thursday 4/12

***ARI DIAMONDBACKS - 4 Units - 10:05 EST***
MIL BREWERS - 1 Unit - 2:20 EST

Kennedy should have no problem against that weak SD offense. Bass (im sure most of you guys are thinking who?!) is making his fourth career start, 1st this year, against a ARI lineup that is no joke. To add, SD won the 2 game of the series and I do not see them taking this series, especially when the diamondbacks ace is pitching the rubber match. Kennedy was 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in 3 starts last year against SD, 2 of them on the road.

[the scab man]

YTD 12-13 -8.15 units with my big play pending. For friday 4/13....

SF GIANTS (-170)
NYM/PHI O (-125)
SEA MARINERS (-165)

[the scab man]

All 3 plays are 1 unit

[the scab man]

Ytd 13-13 -4.15

[the scab man]

Anybody watch the ending of that mets game? My goddddd did the ppl on the over get lucky! 15-13 -2.15 units with the mariners pending

[the scab man]

Don't have times to post lines but whatever it is on bovada.lv.....1 unit each

Phillies
Cin/wash over
Rangers

[the scab man]

YTD 16-16 -5.4 units

[the scab man]

Sunday 4/15

DET TIGERS (-110) - 3 Units
NY YANKEES (-170) - 1 Unit
TAM RAYS (-110) - 1 Unit
TEX/MIN OVER 8.5 (-110) - 1 Unit
OAK/SEA OVER 7 (-120) - 1 Unit

Lets see if I can finish in the positives today!

[the scab man]

YTD 19-18 -2.6 units

For Monday 4/16.....

DET TIGERS (-200) - 2 Units
TAM/BOS OVER 9.5 (-110) - 1 Unit
NYM/ATL UNDER 7.5 (-125) - 1 Unit
PHI/SF UNDER 6 (-110) - 1 Unit

[the scab man]

Inching closer to even.....21-20 -1.95 units YTD

For Tues 4/17.....

CHI WHITESOX (-140)- 2 units
HOU/WASH OVER 7 (-120) - 1 unit
ARI DIAMONDBACKS (-190) - 1 unit
PHI/SF OVER 7 (+105) - 1 unit

[the scab man]

Games still pending for Tues, hopefully CHW can come back in the 9th

For Wed 4/18......

WASH NATIONALS -1.5 (+100) - 2 Units
BOS RED SOX (-130) - 1 Unit
OAK/LAA OVER 7 (-125) - 1 Unit