Mac Miller's MLB Thread 2012 (1st Inning Prop)

[mac miller]

Back again for the 2012 season. Units will range anywhere from 1 to 3 units. Some adjustments made to try and avoid the downfall from last season a few weeks before the All-Star break.

3/28/12
SEA v. OAK No Run (-170) 1x

gl

[mac miller]

1-0
+1 Unit

YTD: 1-0-0

[mac miller]

3/29/12

SEA v. OAK No Run (-140) 1x

gl

[nosaij]

hi mac

just wondering whats SEA v. OAK No Run? is that betting on the winners or the match has no home runs?

[mac miller]

Under game props look for "will there be a score in the 1st inning" (some bookies don't have it). The options are "yes" or "no" so you're betting if either team will score or not in the 1st inning of the game.

[crackerjack]

Do most books offer this prop? I am at bookmaker and didn't see it as an option...

[sonnybaby]

wats gucci mac

[floridagolfer]

For those of you who track these kind of things, what kind of streaks are unusual for a team? Does a team often go eight or 10 games on one kind of streak or the other, or is five games considered a long run? I'm trying to get a feel for the right time to jump in on a team's first-inning results.

[RoadDog]

Ahhh, remember the beginning of last year when the highest odds you'd see on this prop was -130? Now you see juice as high as -185 for this prop. Too bad Vegas figured this prop out lol.

[FreddDS]

Nice to see you back again this season, mac! Let's get it! GL on the year, I'll be following as usual!

[Rangers901]

Ahhh, remember the beginning of last year when the highest odds you'd see on this prop was -130? Now you see juice as high as -185 for this prop. Too bad Vegas figured this prop out lol.

Hey RoadDog, Vegas didn't "figure out this prop," they just realized that the public bets the no run in the 1st inning a high percentage of the time. This prop has proven to be a 50/50 prop, so I wonder why people continue to lay the big time juice on the No run. The Yes for a run in the first inning is at + money at least 85% of the time. If I offered you a line on a coinflip, which we know in the long run is a 50/50 proposition, and gave you Heads (+130) and Tails (-150), which line are you going to take? The obvious answer is you would take the + money 100% of the time because in the long run, you will win. I don't think I can mention the site, but someone on another forum did this and proved that betting the + money every time, whether it be Yes or No, turned a profit. Good luck.

[slim dog]

Thanks again Mac!

[calmeat]

Hey Mac nice to see you again. Ill have mine up and running this season as well. Just gonna wait for a bit. GL this year

[mac miller]

Good to see u guys back in it as well, taking today off

[crackerjack]

THis is a fun prop, and i totally agree with Rangers comments. Books make money setting the No Run line so high because it's what the public likes to bet. I discovered this prop last year and was victim to almost always betting No and passing when I thought Yes because it's easier to route for six outs than a run. I'm going to keep exact records this season...I am sure it's not right at 50-50 (like a coin flip) but there were days and days were I would simulate betting $100 on the Yes in every game and even when No was the winner in more games it was usually plus money because of the odds. Almost always came out ahead.

Still would like to know if Bookmaker offers this prop... Anyone? Live Chat lady said yes but she didn't know for sure and they didn't offer it on either of the Sea/Oak games.

[morningmoney]

Great info in this thread. Thanks.

[mgross0718]

Great info in this thread. Thanks.

Thanks MAC for getting this going again...what happened to STC? You two killed it last year!!!

[mac miller]

Not too sure what happened to him but we had some great ideas going last season when capping this prop. Ill be focusing more on no runs up till a few weeks before all star then look a lot more into playing the yes run if this trend is anything like last season

[mac miller]

As of now the prop for the stl v mia game isnt available... I am leaning no run at 2x (depending on the line).

[mac miller]

YTD: 2-0-0 +2 Units

[mac miller]

STL v. MIA No Run (-145) 2x

[FreddDS]

We lost the season opener yesterday.

Any plays today, mac?

[mac miller]

Late play coming in... couldnt post it on my phone for some reason.

BOS v. DET No Run (-160) 1x

[mac miller]

Final plays for today:

WAS v. CHI No Run (-170) 1x
LAD v. SDP No Run (-170) 1x

gl

[mac miller]

3-0 +3 Units

YTD: 5-1-0 +2.1 Units

[mac miller]

Took yesterday off.. didn't see anything that I liked for no run's which is the focus for the start of the season. Glad I laid off as it seems that it didn't turn out too well for no runs... All about being selective considering the juice on these lines. Plays will be up shortly.

[Brp27345]

For those of you still interested in percentages, I read the other day from someone who had data on these over the last 10 years, and he said that over that 10 year span...

NO 53%
YES 47%

So not a perfect coin flip, but yes, a lot closer than most people probably think, and I would guess taking the +money is usually the right play...

BOL to you this year MAC!

[mac miller]

Thanks for the info Brp27345, will defiantly keep it in mind. Todays plays:

ATL v. NYM No Run (-160) 1x
KAN v. LAA No Run (-150) 1x
LAD v. SDP No Run (-160) 1x
SEA v. OAK No Run (-170) 1x

gl

[mac miller]

Rough day yesterday for the no runs. Trying to look at different angles.

MIA v. CIN Yes Run (-120) 1x
BOS v. DET Yes Run (-115) 1x

gl

[OMGRandyJackson]

I have the opposite of you today lol No and No.

[mac miller]

a much needed 2-0 to start the day.

Late add:

PHI v. PIT No Run (-150) 1x

gl

[mac miller]

WAS v. CHC Yes Run (-115) 1x

[mac miller]

LAD v. SDP No Run (-140) 2x

[lousuks]

Where in the hell is daba?