MLB Dog System

[morningmoney]

04/06

Rec 1-2, -.38u


Previous:
WAS 2 @ CHC 1


Today's plays:

NYY (0-0) @ TAM (0-0)
STL (1-0) @ MIL (0-0)

Two dogs today meet 5 of our categories, STL and TAM. The next closest dog was CHW meeting only 3.

[morningmoney]

04/07

Rec 3-2, +1.94u


Previous:
STL 11 @ MIL 5
NYY 6 @ TAM 7


Today's plays:

NYY (0-1) @ TAM (1-0)
STL (2-0) @ MIL (0-1)
LAD (2-0) @ SD (0-2)


All away dogs today. The Cards and the Dodgers met 5 parameters this morning. The Yanks hit 4. The next closest game was Boston, barely meeting 3 of our parameters.

[figue]

[morningmoney]

[ChicagoCover]

Will be watching

[airattackers]

hell yeah dodgers 6-5

[morningmoney]

LA saved the day. Can't run today's games thru the filters 'cause I'm moving. If anyones up to it, feel free to post. Thx.

[morningmoney]

04/09

Rec 4-4, +.98u


Previous:
STL 0 @ MIL 6
NYY 6 @ TAM 8
LAD 6 @ SD 5


Today's plays:

NYY (0-3) @ BAL (3-0)
ATL (0-3) @ HOU (2-1)


Home dogs today. The O's meet a remarkable 8 categories while the Astros meet 6. Seattle and St. Louis were next on the list with 4 apiece.

[airattackers]

@morningmoney...do we chase a loss for 3 games..ex:baltimore and seattle...

[morningmoney]

@morningmoney...do we chase a loss for 3 games..ex:baltimore and seattle...

I'm flat betting the plays but I suppose one could chase the plays if they wanted... chasing 4 games at an avg of +125/play, risking to win a unit (or thereabouts), one would be looking at around 1.5u for the B bet, 3u for the C bet and 5.5u for the D bet, which if you lost, would set you back 11 units total for the failed chase. However, it's important to note that these plays are not correlated in any way and a chase would be like running a blind Kelly imo.

[morningmoney]

04/10

Rec 5-5, +1.53u


Previous:

NYY 6 @ BAL 2
ATL 3 @ HOU 8



Today's plays:

NYY (1-3) @ BAL (3-1)
BOS (1-3) @ TOR (2-2)
CHW (2-2) @ CLE (1-3)
ATL (0-4) @ HOU (3-1)


There are four plays for today, all hitting 5 of the parameters laid out in post #1 of this thread. Sea and Tampa were the next closest with each hitting 4 parameters.

[ChicagoCover]

Loving it so far!!! Thanks

[morningmoney]

04/11

Rec 6-7, +.72u


Previous:

NYY 5 @ BAL 4
BOS 3 @ TOR 7
ATL 6 @ HOU 4
CHW game ppd


Today's plays:

TOR +115 (6 of 12 home dog parameters)
STL +118 (5 of 9 away dog parameters)
ARI +112 (7 of 9 away dog parameters)
BAL +161 (7 of 12 home dog parameters)
COL +110 (5 of 12 home dog parameters)


A couple of tough breaks in some close games yesterday. 5 plays for today with ARI hitting 7 of a possible 9 categories.

[morningmoney]

Loving it so far!!! Thanks

[morningmoney]

04/12

Rec: 8-10, -.03u


Another day of close games brings us down to the even mark after about a week. Only two plays for today.



Previous:

BOS 1 @ TOR 3
STL 3 @ CIN 4
ARI 1 @ SD 2
NYY 6 @ BAL 4
SF 8 @ COL 17


Today's plays:

SEA +212 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)
COL +117 (4 out of 12 home dog parameters)

[morningmoney]

04/13

Rec: 8-12, -2.03u

Previous:

SEA 3 @ TEX 5
SF 4 @ COL 2



4 plays for today, 1 home dog and 3 away dogs.

Today's plays:


CHW +106 (4 out of 12 home dog parameters)
TAM +112 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)
PIT +159 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)
HOU +185 (5 out of 9 away dog parameters)

[morningmoney]

04/14

Rec: 9-15, -3.97u


Previous:

DET 2 @ CHW 5
TAM 2 @ BOS 12
PIT 0 @ SF 5
HOU 4 @ MIA 5



Just 1 play for today:

TAM +124 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)


have a great wkend

[morningmoney]

04/15

Rec: 9-16, -4.97u


Enduring a brutal 2-9 slump. Let's turn it around



Previous:

TAM 5 @ BOS 13


Only one play:

HOU +183 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)

[ChicagoCover]

This isn't doing as well as I thought it would..

[morningmoney]

This isn't doing as well as I thought it would..

The first week saw the system go up for about 2 units. However, this last week has been forgettable with a loss of about 8 units to bring it down to a -6u. We'll see if things get back on track once the stats settle a little and become more veritable. Thanks for following.

[morningmoney]

04/16

Rec: 9-17, -5.97u

Previous:

HOU 4 @ MIA 5



Again, only one play today (a team needs to meet 4 parameters to be a play).


Today's play:

KC +169 (5 out of 12 home dog parameters)

[figue]

[morningmoney]

04/17

Rec: 9-18, -6.97u


Previous:

DET 3 @ KC 2


This system is totally getting slammed right now, 3-10 in the last 13 and a true fade if I ever saw one. I'm sure it will straighten out eventually, but for now it's ice cold. Yesterday, for kicks, I played against the dogs that had the fewest qualifiers, (i.e. 0-2 parameters) and those plays actually did pretty good winning about 3 units. Might try that again today along with the usual dog picks. Today, 3 dogs met the necessary 4 or more parameters to become a play. They are:


TEX +112 (5 out of 9 away dog parameters)
LAD +115 (6 out of 9 away dog parameters)
SD +110 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)

[morningmoney]

04/18

Rec: 10-20, -7.85u


Previous:

TEX 18 @ BOS 3
LAD 4 @ MIL 5
SD 3 @ COL 5


Today's plays:

OAK +151 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)
NYM +108 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)


Yesterday, there were 9 dogs meeting 2 or less parameters. The favorites in those games went 6-3 for +1.36 units. Add that to the +3u from the day before and we may have something developing. Today, there are 4 dogs that meet 2 or less parameters (MIN, PIT, HOU and CHC). Again, I'll be fading these teams and playing their favored opponents in addition to playing the 2 dog plays (OAK and NYM). The 10-20 record stated above does not reflect the new trial plays. GL on all your plays today.

[morningmoney]

04/19

Rec: 11-21, -7.34u


Previous:

NYM 6 @ ATL 14
OAK 6 @ LAA 0


Today's plays:



OAK +185 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)

Not feeling this Oakland pick but it meets the system qualifications of 4 or more parameters so it's a play.

While fading the dogs that met only 2 or less parameters (there were 4) we went 2-2 yesterday. Since recording these plays starting 3 days ago they've gone 14-6 for +2.79 units. Today, 8 of the dogs meet 2 or less parameters. Again, I'll be taking their favored opponents which are PHI, ATL, SEA, WAS, STL, TOR, MIA and CHW as we continue to track this new spin on the dog system.

* note - a bookkeeping oversight regarding the new plays has been corrected. The official record for the new plays over the last 3 days is: 14-6, +2.79 units. thx

[morningmoney]

04/20

Rec: 12-21, -5.49u


Previous:

OAK 4 @ LAA 2


Today's plays:

Oaktown came through with the W. For today, there's 3 home dogs and an away dog to play.


CHC +114 (6 out of 9 home dog parameters)
PIT +125 (4 out of 9 home dog parameters)
OAK +108 (4 out of 9 home dog parameters)
BAL +137 (4 out of 9 away dog parameters)



In regards to our trial of fading the dogs with 2 or less parameters and playing the favorites (yesterday there were 8), the dogs had a field day, going 5-3 to bring that fade record down to 17-11, -.038 units. There seems to be a lot of these plays so I was looking at the data a little closer in hopes of finding someway to filter down the picks. While doing so I noticed something rather interesting. Of those 28 matches where we faded the dogs (2 or less parameters) and took the favorites, the home favorites were 12-11 while the away favorites were a perfect 5-0. Of course, those numbers are from a small sample size, but it still grabs my attention. As one can imagine, we will definitely be watching that characteristic closely. Today, there are 5 games where the dogs meet 2 or less parameters warranting a play on the favorites. Those faves are: PHI, ATL, CHW, LAD and the NYM. All are away favorites with the exception of the Mets. I'm curious to see how this trend develops over the next few days... Have a great wkend.

[morningmoney]

04/21


Rec: 12-25, -9.49u


Previous:

CIN 9 @ CHC 4
STL 4 @ PIT 1
CLE 4 @ OAK 3
BAL 3 @ LAA 6

The standard dog plays went 0-4 last night, while the plays that faded the dogs with the fewest parameters went 4-1. Adding these to the plays.

Today's Plays:

NYY +109
CHC +122
PHI -146
ATL -120
TOR -120
STL -130
LAD -198

[morningmoney]

04/22


Rec: 17-27, -7.07u

Yesterday: 5-2, +2.42u

NYY +109
CHC +122
PHI -146
ATL -120
TOR -120
STL -130
LAD -198

Crazy Yanks game out there in Fenway. Bobby V wanted to break out his disguise for sure.


Today's plays:

NYM +115
CHC +137
TEX -130
STL -131
TOR -121
NYY -132
LAD -130
CHW -116

[morningmoney]

04/23


Rec: 21-29, -5.85u

Yesterday: 4-2, +1.22u

NYM +115
CHC +137
TEX -130
STL -131
TOR -121
NYY -132
LAD -130
CHW -116


Just a few plays for today. All are against dogs meeting 2 or less parameters.


STL -106
BOS -151
SF -153

[morningmoney]

04/24


Rec: 23-30, -5.54u

Yesterday: 2-1, +.31u

STL -106
BOS -151
SF -153


Chi Cub Joe Mather killed the sweep with that 2-run walk-off in the 9th.
Today's plays:


NYM +104
STL -139
PHI -110
WAS -117

[morningmoney]

04/25


Rec: 25-31, -3.73u


Yesterday: 3-1, +1.8u


NYM +104
STL -139
PHI -110
WAS -117


I know it's a cliche' but if anyone's due for a win, it's gotta be St. Louis. Cub fans gotta be lovin those back-to-back walk-offs.
Today's plays:


CHW -134
STL -157
WAS -136
MIN +112
NYM +106


Our plays today don't include the doubleheader in Pittsburgh but I'm still tempted to take the Pirates in both games and go for the split...

[morningmoney]

04/26


Rec: 28-33, -3.3u


Yesterday: 3-2, +.43u

CHW -134
STL -157
WAS -136
MIN +112
NYM +106


Two late game heartbreakers in yesterday's games. All of today's 5 picks are going against dogs with little to no parameters met.

CLE -155
TOR -116
WAS -113
DET -200
TAM -150

[morningmoney]

04/27


Rec: 29-37, -6.63u

Yesterday: 1-4, -3.3u


CLE -155
TOR -116
WAS -113
DET -200
TAM -150



On the wrong side of a few games yesterday, so let's get it back. Today's plays -



NYY +112
CLE +128
SF +104
BOS -107
BAL -125
PHI RL -105
TEX -139
COL -159

[morningmoney]

04/28


Rec: 33-41, -6.67u

Yesterday: 4-4, -.04u


NYY +112
CLE +128
SF +104
BOS -107
BAL -125
PHI RL -105
TEX -139
COL -159



Today's plays:

WAS -114
BOS -117
KC -118
CLE +128
NYY -124
SEA +164

[morningmoney]

04/29

Rec: 34.45, -9.81u


Yesterday: 1-4, -3.15u


WAS -114
BOS -117
CLE +128
NYY -124
SEA +164



Today:


CHW +113
OAK +108
PHI +107
ATL -157
SF -175