John Morrison 2012 MLB Thread

WWSports · 02-29-12, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by bisturis

Well, the book I use doesn't allow you to buy points in baseball. All spreads are + or - 1.5.

As I said in the quote above......

In MLB and NHL you could only buy the +1 1/2 runs or pucks on Tier 3 (C) if it wouldn't have covered with the +1 1/2 in the previous 2 tiers (A or B). Hope this helps some. I am still interested in hearing how Wallco likes to handle this situation

J.M. Disciple · 02-29-12, 06:38 PM

PLAY +1 OR -1 INSTEAD OF -1.5 OR +1.5.... you will get more pushes, but labby will take care of bussiness with far less juice. Hope this helps. Atari did it this way last season and showed a good profit.

bisturis · 03-01-12, 12:22 AM

Thanks for the info JM but my book doesn't offer any other lines. I can only get 1.5. Dang it!!

bisturis · 03-01-12, 12:24 AM

But do you still think it will profit only playing 1.5 PS? Since that's all I can get.

J.M. Disciple · 03-01-12, 06:38 PM

You can play the system with labby as it was meant to be played and you will profit for sure. Another thing you can do since your book does not offer the -1 or +1 line is take both ML and -1.5 with a portion of your unit on each one. I forgot the formula for this, but there were several people last year with the same problem. Try and search doing like 30% on RL and 70% ML depending on what the odds are for the game. It is possible to get the +1 or -1 line with this formula.

if you can find Atari's forum you will see what im talking about, if not post it on another thread and im sure someone knows what im talking about. Just make sure its a baseball thread.

bisturis · 03-01-12, 09:30 PM

Thanks for the help!

shinnman · 03-01-12, 11:11 PM

Here is the specific formula that you have to create yourself a -1.0 run line and give yourself a true statistical advantage:
100/MONEYLINE = X
X + 1.0 = Y
100/Y = money line wager
OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line. The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield. Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:
100/MONEYLINE = Z
Money line wager x Z = A
A = run line wager
OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager. For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.
If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:
Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:
100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
100/1.769 = 56.53
That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20. Your overall card would look like this:
Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.
So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.
Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet? Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.

shinnman · 03-01-12, 11:13 PM

i used this formula often last yr

Maxi_EV · 03-02-12, 07:45 AM

shinman

In your example what was the RL-1 that the sportbooks offered compared to what you have created?

shinnman · 03-02-12, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

shinman

In your example what was the RL-1 that the sportbooks offered compared to what you have created?

if i understand your question right , it was usually cheaper to use the formula, lets say yankees are-160, usiing the formula(which i simply copy and paisted to the above post, i didnt type all that out) with the formula they would be around -110, while the book may offer the yankees at -1 for -125 or -130

Maxi_EV · 03-02-12, 04:56 PM

In your example, you actually create a RL-1 @ +112 line.
You don't transform a -130 ML into a +112...

That's why I was wondering what would have been the RL-1 at a sportsbokk...

But I am pretty sure that your method creates a better line.

csavoia · 03-02-12, 07:35 PM

is there any way to look back at this system overall in the past six years and each individual year.. I have never went with someone right from the beginning of the season and i find baseball to be the easier of the four major games to bet on.. Do you have this info available Wallco. Thank you in advance

csavoia · 03-02-12, 07:54 PM

in fact anyone with a viable system for baseball i would love some info on them because i took the dumb liberty of paying sbp last year and it was horrible.

oliver10 · 03-02-12, 09:49 PM

thanks for all the infor

Wallco99 · 03-03-12, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by csavoia

is there any way to look back at this system overall in the past six years and each individual year.. I have never went with someone right from the beginning of the season and i find baseball to be the easier of the four major games to bet on.. Do you have this info available Wallco. Thank you in advance

It's in last year's thread.

nick86 · 03-04-12, 03:37 AM

Imagine if you had balls of steel and you were laying down to win 1000 each time by playing since 2005, you'd be up over half a mill!!!!!

knugen · 03-05-12, 06:20 AM

Then you need a BR around 150000$.. Dont think many people can afford that

WWSports · 03-05-12, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by nick86

Imagine if you had balls of steel and you were laying down to win 1000 each time by playing since 2005, you'd be up over half a mill!!!!!

Originally posted by knugen

Then you need a BR around 150000$.. Dont think many people can afford that

<BR><BR><BR><BR>

One rule of thumb I've used in a game like craps or straight up ATS in sports is you need what would be equal to 100 bets as your bankroll to overcome most long losing streaks. Hence a $5 table you need a $500 stake and in sports you would need a $2200 bankroll to be able to make $20 bets. It's just a guide, but gives you at least somewhat of a chance to survive.

Maxi_EV · 03-06-12, 11:40 AM

Wallco

Do you think you will have time to finish the retest of 2011 , removing V2 plays, before beginning of this season?
Can I help?

TRE1968 · 03-06-12, 11:56 AM

just play the -120 system use the labby and make $$$ every season

Wallco99 · 03-06-12, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Wallco

Do you think you will have time to finish the retest of 2011 , removing V2 plays, before beginning of this season?
Can I help?

Yes, that will be easy. I will have it before the hour.

Wallco99 · 03-06-12, 03:02 PM

I was toying with something toward the end of last season for 1/2 units, that made me 11 units total, not bad since I was playing for 1/2 units. I called it sub 110. When the game line is between -101 and -109, play the visiting team on an (A) bet. If it loses, then the first game the next day that falls between -101 and -109, that visiting team will be your (B) bet. Play it out to four games. I never backtested it so I don't know it's accuracy, but it was pretty fun. The only problem is that some games you have to wait until the last minute to place your bet, since we are using final lines @ scoresandodds.com.

Wallco99 · 03-06-12, 03:27 PM

MLB Plu$$ ended at -66.41 units last season, this includes the horrendous v2 that was added midseason. After removing the v2 plays, the original system finished at +6.76 units. Not that great, however, keep in mind, the v1 was almost 50 units down at the all star break and made a great comeback. I knew it did, and actually thought it did a little better, but this is the first time I actually did the math and I am happy with that.

Maxi_EV · 03-06-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by TRE1968

just play the -120 system use the labby and make $$$ every season

What's this one?

srednalf · 03-06-12, 10:09 PM

Wallco- earlier you had stated that you had the average per series lost for each season somewhere, were you able to dig that up. I'm still working on something and seems to be positive, just trying to get a comparable for true units. I have applied your 1-3-5 but want to compare whatever MLB plus and JM MLB have avareged to get a true number.

Maxi_EV · 03-07-12, 08:50 AM

Thanks Wallco!

Points awarded.

Wallco99 · 03-07-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Thanks Wallco!

Points awarded.

Thank you very much Max.

srednalf · 03-07-12, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Thank you very much Max.

wallco-not sure really what the points are worth being I dont't bet or play poker on SBR but everyone seems to have a need for them. I tried giving up all my points for a little information on the average loss, but wouldnt allow me to transfer them, so I'll log in dailey and give them up a few at a time, just let me know once you get a chance.

J.M. Disciple · 03-08-12, 06:43 PM

When does the season actually start? Anyone have a labby strategy going for this? I think the juice might be too much based on traditional method of playing it. +1.5 on dog and ML on favorites.

Labby tips for this system?

I think Wallco has too many plays for a labby to work, which is why i think its best just to follow how he does it; unless someone cares to share there expertise with me.

JMD

dlunc3 · 03-08-12, 08:23 PM

wonder if the 7/5 strategy or something of that sort would be profitable for JM mlb? I sure as hell dont have the time to test it... and dont really follow any chase systems anymore.. but just curious if anyone had ever run the data for your guys sake?

bol this yr boys

knugen · 03-09-12, 05:54 AM

Has anyone done a schedule for all the JM plays this season?

Wallco99 · 03-09-12, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by knugen

Has anyone done a schedule for all the JM plays this season?

A schedule is not possible, ALL plays are performance based, so no teams are known until games are played.

Wallco99 · 03-09-12, 02:46 PM

I am hoping Hagball comes back, he did a great job last season and gets my vote for this season if he wishes to do it again.

knugen · 03-10-12, 04:02 AM

Yes ofcourse it is, i forgot, thought it was like NBA

Maxi_EV · 03-10-12, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

wonder if the 7/5 strategy or something of that sort would be profitable for JM mlb? I sure as hell dont have the time to test it... and dont really follow any chase systems anymore.. but just curious if anyone had ever run the data for your guys sake?

bol this yr boys

Post all past results in terms of A win/loss,B win/loss, etc...
I'll do the rest. Without these numbers...good luck.