I think the Reds at 40/1 are great odds. Anyone else have opinions? Thanks!
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I couldn't agree more...but the NL Central is a three team race, so it might be difficult for the Reds to win that division. Even without Pujols and Fielder, the pitching is strong enough on the Cards and Brewers to warrant some rough waters for the Reds (and Cubs....DAMNIT!)Comment -
Where are you finding Reds @ 40/1?? I would love those odds. Bovada and 5dimes have them at 25 and 23/1, respectively. If Jocketty never came out and said he hasn't spoke to Oswalt or his agent in a while, I would have taken them already on the off chance that he goes to Cincy. However, I think it's too early to call the NL central as Oswalt could be a major piece to the puzzle of either the Cards or Reds.
Outside of the NL Central, I'm not sure who has good enough odds to want to bet. In the east, Marlins at +2500 (5dimes) are going to have a hard time getting past Philly and JJ needs to stay healthy for them to win as Nolasco is officially mediocre, no matter his periphs, and Buehrle is #3 starter, nothing more. I'm not sure the Braves are really going to compete, even with Heyward taking a big step forward. Phillies at 6/1 aren't worth it with the advanced age of all of their star players. They're already without Ryan howard and Rollins, Doc, Utley, Victorino, polanco, and Wiggington/Thome are not getting any younger. They're good, but there isn't any value at the current price.
I don't think anyone has a clue as to what will happen in the West. Just about every team is carrying a huge black hole on one side of the field. Giants can't hit. Padres can't hit. Dodgers have a few stars, but outside of them, can't hit. They also lost Kuroda and aren't likely to be buyers anytime soon due to the owner situation. Name me the #2 starter of Colorado.... Jeremy Guthrie?? not scared of them. That leaves the D'backs... They picked up Trevor Cahill whose #'s look pretty mediocre away from Oakland. Kennedy/Hudson both should follow up with strong performances and the bats are good enough with J.Upton, Chris young, and Montero, but who's after that? Can Ryan roberts , Stephen Drew, aaron hill, and Jason Kubel all stay healthy and produce?? Idk... If I had to pick from the West, I'd take the D-Backs at +3000, but woudln't be expecting much.
I'm going to leave the AL alone for now. If I were forced to make a play on the NL at the moment, Dbacks +3000 or Reds +2500Comment -
TopBet had them @40/1......now they are 30/1. Thanks for your input EXhoosier. It's greatly appreciated and BOL!Comment -
Just some quick thoughts off the top of my head. Season previews and projections are just starting to roll out, so in depth review is in the works.
TopBet has AL/NL pennant bets available, which means others should be posting soon... Looking at the lines, you might as well bet teams to win the WS and then hedge before the WS rather than betting on a team to win the pennant.Comment -
Does not matter how good the odds are if youre just throwing your money away...
Im not 100% sure on the WS yet, there were A LOT of big moves this year but I really do not like the Reds chance at all.Comment -
Detroit 10/1 or Atlanta 15/1?
Verlander pitching in a short playoff series is a weapon.
I think the Washington Nationals can do better than people think but that division is tough. I'd want more than 30/1.Comment -
Always bet the Pirates just to look @ the ticketComment -
Nationals are my pick to win the Wild Card. The pitching staff might be one of the best in baseball.Comment -
I ended up just placing a bet on the reds and d-backs @ +2300 and +3000 for half a unit each. After remembering that the cards are without Dave Duncan (#1 pitching coach in baseball, IMO), I pulled the trigger.
Like I said earlier, the dbacks are reigning champs and are the most complete team in that division.
With 4 legitimate teams in competition for the NL east, I couldn't pull the trigger on anyone in that division. If you think the 'nats are good value in that division, you have to think the dbacks are great value in a much lesser division.
Once you make the playoffs, it's been shown that winning the world series is basically a crap-shoot. My strategy for these bets are to pick teams that are likely to make the playoffs and hope for the best once they are in. (**This might change if the MLB goes to 2 WC's, but I'm guessing that won't happen as no announcement has been made and ST has already started).Comment -
Exhoosier - didn't the D-Backs go from 65 wins to 95 or so wins last year? I don't know much about the NL west but that's pretty impressive. How's Colorado? I remember them having a long winning streak 2-3 years ago? Dodgers suck, Giants are all pitching no hitting?
I've been thinking about it and I think Tampa Bay might be a decent pick.
Over 90 wins 2 years in a row
They have`a young team that should get better
High end prospects should only get better
Younger teams get hurt less than older teams (Yanks/Boston)
Madden is a good manager
Remember all the questions with their Bullpen going into last year?
They have a very good starting rotation
Team has pressure to "win now" before they get broken up/traded away
I also think the price on Tampa is a little bit less than what it should be because the Yanks/Boston are in their division and only 2/3 can make the playoffs. If Tampa was say in the NL West or an easier divison the odds wouldn't be as good. Many people "assume" that will be Yanks/Boston. Don't forget Tampa had their share of time in 1st place.Comment -
Arizona did have a few rough years, but their entire core of Chris Young, j-Up, montero, stephen drew, gERARDo parra, Ryan Roberts, etc were all 26 and under and have now been playing together for 3+ years and all entering their prime at once (drew is 30, so he isn't 'old' yet). Their issue had always been no starting pitching outside of Dan Haren including a league-worst bullpen. Both Hudson and Kennedy have peripheral stats to solidify their solid seasons as well as a high pedigree coming up through the minors. Joe saunders should eat innings and be mediocre and then they also have a slightly above average cahill + enright/colmenter to fill out the #5 spot; That's serviceable depth. Bullpen should be serviceable again this year + hitters are all in their prime sans Kubel and Overbay. There isn't much to not like about this club in a weak division.
TB @ 22/1 looks decent value as well, especially if there ends up being a 2nd wild card.
Speaking of 2nd wild card, I'd expect a lot of these prices to go down if/when the MLB announces a second wild card in 2012. More teams making the playoffs should equal a better chance for teams to win.Comment -
I don't like Arizona but I'll admit I don't know much about them.
Chris Young - Can hit 30 HR and steal 30 bags but the guy is also liable to hit .230. The steals/hrs are good for a rotissere fantasy league but that average kills you. You'll need to take a whole bunch of other good average hitters because he sucks that bad. It tells me he's an athletic guy with the hrs/steals but he's not a good hitter.
Upton - Had a career year last year? actually had good stats if I remember but I don't trust his stats. His brother regressed, no? Neither Young/Upton are "elite" in my opinion.
Parra - I don't seem to recall anything above "average outfielder" for him.
Montero/Drew - how good are they?
Haren is a beast and they filled out that pitching staff nicely with him, but will Haren stay healthy?
Arizona has some "good players" but the only elite guy on that team is Haren IMO. I'm just not thrilled with them. The thing is I believe the sabermetrics guys in the the playoffs are a crap shoot, so why not buy some lottery tickets because once a team gets in it's anybody's game. The Phillies were easily the best team in the NL last year and they lost in the playoffs. Same with the Yankees, easily the best team in the AL and they lost. Baseball playoffs aren't about being the "best" team. That's one thing I like about Detroit. They have the best pitcher in baseball and the best hitter in baseball.Comment -
Just a quick correction, Haren *was* on the diamondbacks; I should have been more clear. He was traded in 2010 for Joe Saunders.
I agree tigers have great odds to get into the playoffs. AL central is weak, and at +1100 (5dimes), they are actually worth a look. I seem to recall them being in the +600 range, but I was probably just dreaming. Even the win totals have all of the other ALcentral teams below .500, meaning the tigers should be a shoe in to win the division.... I'm shocked to see +1100 for them.Comment -
I basically see it as just get into the playoffs and then it's a small lottery, you want a ticket. I'd take the team with the best pitcher/best hitter in the league. I also think Tampa is one of the top 3 teams in the American League that should surprise to the upside if anything and they are not priced as such. Yanks/Redsox are such chalk.Comment -
Originally posted by C-Gold
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Playoff expansion to begin this year as stated above by EXHoosier. Here is the link:
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I made a thread about this yesterday wondering what people thought it meant towards WS futures. I guess winning the division will be more important because you don't have to waste your ace in a play-in game, so teams with multiple quality pitchers get bumped a tiny bit.Originally posted by CTOWNsCAPPINComment
