9/8

Al Masters · 09-08-08, 02:40 AM

GL...........I'm also on the over in the Balt/Cle.

Really like this play!

BadBeatBodog · 09-08-08, 04:07 PM

Lets take it to the bank Al_Masters!

Adding:
Boston TT o5 -125
Baltimore TT o4.5 -105
Oakland @ Detroit o9.5 -110**

Take luck

Salcas · 09-08-08, 04:15 PM

disagree with Orioles ML and Under SD/LAD but BOL

t-bone · 09-08-08, 04:21 PM

I like Marlins TT over 4.5........blanton sucks!

ryanXL977 · 09-08-08, 04:36 PM

love bosox today
why do you like balti? reasons por favor

Salcas · 09-08-08, 05:09 PM

Yeah why do you like Balt? Backing Garrett Olson...yikes

BadBeatBodog · 09-08-08, 05:25 PM

Salcas:

The LAD/SD under is a series chase because at least one game has gone under in every Padres home series. I didn't research it at all.

t-bone

I thought about taking the TT over but when I saw that the Marlins ML had jumped twenty cents to +160 from last night I didn't like the play as much

ryan:

Huff is back in the lineup and Cleveland is without Sizemore. Carmona's 4.51 ERA is OK but his 5.32 xFIP sucks. He is a finesse, ground ball pitcher and Baltimore rakes against that type (.813 OPS and .780 OPS, respectively).

As for Olson, his 6.53 ERA is horrible but he has the same exact xFIP as Carmona.

So we have relatively equal SP, but Baltimore is at home and rakes against Carmona and Cleveland is without easily its best hitter.

ryanXL977 · 09-08-08, 05:26 PM

shit
no sizemore
i did not know that
balti may be the play afterall

****,

Salcas · 09-08-08, 05:45 PM

Thanks for that BBB...I didn't realize Sizemore was out either...but I still like Indians here because they have other good hitters (Choo, Peralta, Martinez etc...) Baltimore has giving up IMO a long long time ago and with Fausto on the mound I like his chances on picking up his 4th straight win...

ryanXL977 · 09-08-08, 05:47 PM

bbb, now, when calculating carmons numbers and correction, do you take into acct how god he was last yr or is that meaningless?

BadBeatBodog · 09-08-08, 05:55 PM

I definitely look at what a guy has done in past years. He had a fantastic year last year but according to FIP and xFIP he was overrated then, too (4.05 and 3.99, respectively). So the fact that his FIP and xFIP are inflated this year is not surprising.

Salcas:

You say Baltimore has given up but that is a very subjective observation. Sure they have nothing to play for, but can't you say the same for Cleveland?

ryanXL977 · 09-08-08, 05:56 PM

but carmona is groundball pitcher
he does it on purpose
like lowe and webby

BadBeatBodog · 09-08-08, 06:04 PM

Huh? FIP and xFIP are not BAbip, if that's what you're referring to. Also, ground ball pitchers, or guys who 'pitch to contact' will not automatically have higher BAbips.

BAbip does not 'pick and choose' which pitchers it fluctuates for, it's an equal opportunity stat. The only SP I know of who has consistently shown he can sustain a lower-than-average BAbip is Johan Santana.

BadBeatBodog · 09-09-08, 04:58 AM

Florida ML +142 - LOSS
Baltimore ML +122 - WIN
Boston RL -110 - WIN
Los Angeles @ San Diego u7.5 +108** (series chase) - WIN
Cleveland @ Baltimore o10.5 -105** - WIN
Toronto @ Chicago u8.5 -102** - POSTPONED
Oakland @ Detroit o9.5 -110** - WIN
Florida @ Philadelphia o9.5 -110 - WIN
Boston TT o5 -125 - LOSS
Baltimore TT o4.5 -105 - WIN

7-2 +8.13u

The gravy train keeps on rolling.

BadBeatBodog · 09-09-08, 05:32 AM

Updated splits since 8/25 (when I overhauled my selection criteria):

Totals: 35-13-4 +31.19
Sides: 31-24 +14.43
RL: 6-8 -2.1
ML Dogs +110 +: 12-7 +11.31
ML Faves -110 +: 5-3 +1.84
-110 < ML < +110: 8-4 +6.74
-0.5 FF: 1-2 -2.36
Team totals: 9-5-1 +4.30
Grand Salami: 1-0 +1
Game Totals: 25-8-3 +25.89

Yes I am on a 25-8-3 game total run