Monday's hot picks

[Wilforth]

YTD: 3-3 +0.64
Yesterday: 0-2 -2.00

Monday's hot picks
Reds +123
Reds are 4-1 in Volquez's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 7-2 in Volquez's last 9 road starts.
Brewers are 5-1 in Bush's last 6 starts.
Brewers are 1-5 in Bush's last 6 starts vs. Reds.
Reds are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

Deduction: Bush and the Brewers haven't had much success against the Reds. Given the Brewers' current offensive mediocrity, a shot at the Reds may not hurt.

Diamondbacks +164
Supporting trends:
Diamondbacks are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
Diamondbacks are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.

Also note that Lincecum gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings in his last outing. If such vulnerability showed up once more, then he may not go deep into the game, which would give advantage to the Dbacks when it comes to the bullpens.

[ryanXL977]

yes and yes

[fifawcs]

I like Dbacks. I don't hate the Reds, but can't put anything on it. The Reds just arent the same team since dealing Dunn and Griffey.

[ryanXL977]

griffery sucks
dickersons better

[Wilforth]

I like Dbacks. I don't hate the Reds, but can't put anything on it. The Reds just arent the same team since dealing Dunn and Griffey.

But what do we say about the Brewers right now?

[ryanXL977]

david bush is so mediocre it aint funny
why not take cincy

[Wilforth]

I'm glad I cashed my Padres play today. I think the Brewers are in a funk right now. Sheets saved them on Saturday. Bush can't do a Sheets on Monday.

[ryanXL977]

brewers arent good, they are a bunch of good players
but not a good team
**** em and fade em
why not

[Wilforth]

Ryan,

You said it all.

[fifawcs]

Yeah. But the more I see them struggle the more I think they are due. I'm not on them so BOL to you. But the Brew are at home versus a team that generally struggles on the road.

[ryanXL977]

due doesnt exist

you know whos due? the cubs, to win it all

[Wilforth]

If they're due, let them prove it. Some folks lost money on Webb yesterday thinking he was "due". I don't care about "due". I care about reality.

[ryanXL977]

i didnt bet webb bc he was due
i bet him bc he is a top 3 pitcher on a good team at plus money

due is made up
doesnt exist

[Wilforth]

Ryan,

I know you don't bet on a "due" notion, but you seem to show too much loyalty to certain pitchers. You played Webb the last time and he lost. You played Hamels on Sunday and he lost. There're occasions when you don't play a team just because of the starting pitcher. I respect Lincecum a lot but I'm fading him gladly on this occasion. Giants are going nowhere. The Dbacks have more reasons to win than do the Giants and Petit is also good.

[ryanXL977]

hammels got jobbed dude, he no more lost the game than i did.
at the end of the year, i am quite sure the dbacks will win a good 65-70% of webbs starts

giants won win 70% of lincecums starts bc the giants suck


i will play webb and hammels every single time they are dogs, no matter who they go against

[Kingctb27]

hammels got jobbed dude, he no more lost the game than i did.
at the end of the year, i am quite sure the dbacks will win a good 65-70% of webbs starts

giants won win 70% of lincecums starts bc the giants suck


i will play webb and hammels every single time they are dogs, no matter who they go against

And how many times has Webb been a dog this year?

[Al Masters]

Balt/Cev........total over10.5

[Wilforth]

Balt/Cev........total over10.5

Yes, both the Orioles and Dodgers games appear to be going Over. I however won't have them in my hot picks. What I intend to keep doing (if successful) is to select plays with odds of +100 or better so as to maintain a positive balance even at say 48%.