Front Page MLB Picks (Thu., Sep 4)

[Willie Bee]

Pirates, Reds Over 9½ in matinee

Game Time: 09/04/2008 12:35 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Over is 40-23 in Pirates road games this season, and their starter Gorzelanny has an 8.82 ERA in his last three starts and allowed six runs in less than an inning vs. the Reds last time. Go Over today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best Over records in baseball this season, especially on the road where the Pittsburgh Over is a lucrative 40-23-4. Look for that pattern to continue when the Pirates visit the Cincinnati Reds in this very early 12:35 ET start.

The starting pitchers certainly figure to do their part to make this happen today. Josh Fogg is 2-7 with a brutal 7.29 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Reds. As if that is not bad enough, he has allowed 22 earned runs and 28 hits in just 19 innings over his last four starts vs. the normally light-hitting Pirates.

Tom Gorzelanny has not been much better for the Pirates either, as he sits at 6-9 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 19 starts, with the Over going 13-5-1 in those outings. Even more alarming is that his numbers are actually worse over his last three starts, where he has a disgusting 8.82 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over 16.1 innings. He did not get out of the fist inning the last time he faced Cincinnati, allowing six earned runs in 0.2 innings.

Combining the recent form of these hurlers and the Over-tendency of the Pirates in general this year, the Over seems like an obvious selection here.

Free Pick: Pirates, Reds Over 9½ (-125)

[Willie Bee]

Play Padres & Brewers Under 9

Game Time: 09/04/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Both teams are coming off series in which they were swept, and there's a trend in this series for low-scoring games. Take the Under when the Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres.

Both teams are coming off being swept in their most recent series. The Mets took the broom to the Brewers, while the Padres failed to win a game during their three-game set against the Dodgers.

So who gets the advantage between two sliding teams?

In this case, the advantage is definitely Milwaukee’s. The Brewers played a day-game at Shea Stadium on Wednesday and got back home in plenty of time to rest and prepare for the Padres. San Diego meanwhile had a night game in Los Angeles followed by the long trip to Wisconsin. The Padres arrived early this morning so they’ve got to be dragging. Both teams have been struggling offensively.

The Brew Crew scored a total of nine runs in the New York series while the Padres have scored a total of 12 runs in their last four outings. This will be the fourth meeting of the year between these two teams with the previous three games staying well under the total.

Jeff Suppan goes for the Brewers while the Padres will counter with Shawn Estes. I have never been a believer in what day of the week you play makes a big difference. However, for what it’s worth the Padres are 14-3 to the Under on Thursdays.

Overall this year San Diego has played to low side 72-62 while the Brewers have posted a record of 59-72. Milwaukee’s totals mark is a bit misleading considering all the high numbers they’ve faced this season.

Here’s the bottom line: You’ve got two tired teams that have a history of playing close, low-scoring games. Look for that trend to continue tonight.

Free Pick: Padres-Brewers Under 9 (-120)

[Willie Bee]

Cincinnati Reds -124 vs. Pirates

Game Time: 09/04/2008 12:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Pirates are floundering right now, and though the Reds aren't doing much better, they have the stronger lineup to put enough runs up to push Cincinnati past Pittsburgh today.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Cincinnati Reds at home in Porkopolis over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With the end of the season approaching and the Reds well out of the playoff picture, they are now highlighting some of the best young offensive talent in the National League here in the last month of the season. May call-up and top Cincinnati prospect outfielder Jay Bruce has cooled off a bit, but the 21-year-old still has 14 home runs and 41 RBI in roughly half of a full season.

More recently, since the trade of Adam Dunn to Arizona, the Reds have called up another young outfielder by the name of Chris Dickerson and Dickerson is the hottest hitter on the club right now with five homers in his last 10 games and a .329 batting average. Dickerson also has the ability to run, with five steals so far while hitting mostly in the leadoff spot.

With the departure of Dunn, first baseman Joey Votto has assumed the role of cleanup hitter and he has really flourished there. Like Dickerson, Votto is red-hot and just had a four-hit, four-RBI game against San Francisco on Sunday.

There is no such showcasing of young talent in the starting pitching matchup this afternoon. Pirates lefthander Tom Gorzelanny and Reds righthander Josh Fogg have a combined 0-8 record in each of their last four starts. For as bad as Fogg has been, Gorzelanny has been even uglier lately, and this potent Reds lineup should feast off of this way-below-average southpaw. Pittsburgh is 8-21 in its last 29 games overall. Take the Reds.

Free Pick: Reds -124

[Willie Bee]

Toronto Blue Jays -112 to keep Minnesota Twins down

Game Time: 09/04/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The long road trip may be finally catching up to the Twins while the Blue Jays continue to fight for the playoffs. Back Toronto as small home faves against Minnesota.

Toronto picked up yet another big come from behind victory last night over Minnesota, giving them four straight wins and keeping slim hopes alive. The Blue Jays are now 39-29 at home and after getting shut down for a three-game stretch, the offense has come alive with 6.3 RPG over the last four games. The pitching remains the constant as Toronto has a 3.61 ERA on the season including 3.22 at home, first and third respectively in baseball. The 1.25 WHIP is also best in the bigs.

Minnesota is now a game back of the White Sox in the American League Central as they have been been on a rough stretch and this road trip may finally be catching up. After winning the first two road games in Anaheim, the Twins are 3-8 over their last 11 to drop to 31-39 away from home on the season. Pitching has been the problem on the road as Minnesota has a 5.01 ERA which is sixth worst in all of baseball. The Twins have now lost all five meetings with Toronto this year and eight straight dating back to last season.

Kevin Slowey is pitching some fantastic baseball right now and that is the main reason for this favorable line. However more should go into it than that and that is why this price is so good. Slowey has allowed two runs or fewer is five straight starts and his K:BB ratio has been silly at 42:3 over his last seven starts. Despite his last two outings on this trip, he has had trouble on the road with a 4.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and I don’t see him making it three straight quality performances on the road.

While Slowey has been excellent, Jesse Litsch has been pitching nearly as good. After a stint down in the minors to fix some things, he is back to his early season form that saw him post a 3.18 ERA through his first 11 starts of the season. Since being promoted, he has tossed three straight quality starts, while putting up a 1.37 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has been solid at home, going 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 starts, six of which were quality. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota. Play Toronto for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -112

[Willie Bee]

Nationals +115 at Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 09/04/2008 07:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Washington's Jason Bergmann pitches better on the road while Atlanta's Jo-Jo Reyes has struggled in his home park. Dog the Nationals tonight when they travel to meet the Braves.

The Washington Nationals open a 4-games series with the Braves in Atlanta Thursday evening when they send Jason Bergmann to the hill against Jo-Jo Reyes.

Bergmann's 3.99 ERA on the road is nearly a run and a half better than his 5.41 home ERA. On the flip side, Reyes' 7.14 ERA at home is almost three and a half runs worse than his 3.74 ERA on the road this year.

With Bergmann 5-1 in his last six starts in this series, look for Reyes to dip to 0-3 in his career team starts against the Nats tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington with Bergmann vs. Reyes.

Free Pick: Nationals +115

[Willie Bee]

Go Over 9½ in Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds contest

Game Time: 09/04/2008 12:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

With Tom Gorzelanny on the mound for the Pirates and Josh Fogg getting the ball for the Reds, the Over is the only way to play today's Pittsburgh, Cincinnati contest.

Pittsburgh lefty Tom Gorzelanny has struggled all season long with a 6.61 ERA and his team is 13-5 to the Over in his 18 starts.

Josh Fogg for the Reds has not fared better with a 2-7 record and a 7.29 ERA on the season. The Pirates are a profitable 39-23-4 O/U/P mark on the road this season. Look for a high-scoring affair today in Cincinnati. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Pirates-Reds Over 9½ (-120)