September System Plays

[smitch124]

I will finish tabulating the August totals with a few comments after Im done capping.

For this month, I am going back to 2* sides and 1* totals. I really think this system is going to be a good fade in September, it turned out to be that way in August as well. As always, with a small sample size its hard to tell if its a true fade or just hitting a cold streak. That's why I'm continuing on in September even though I won't be betting any of the plays, so i can have more data to analyze.

I'm not sure if anyone was even paying attention last month or not, but if someone was fading the plays and wants me to go back to the 1-5 unit grading (the higher unit plays got crushed) I will post that way using August criteria if you ask.

So far for Sept 1st:

2* Colorado Rockies -169
2* Houston Astros +111

May add later...

As a side note, I always list odds from BetJam at the time of posting.

[smitch124]

Sept 1st adding

1* Sea/Tex under 12 (-120)

[smitch124]

Sept 1st: 2-1 +3.02 units

Sept 2nd

2* San Francisco Giants -160
2* San Diego Padres +178
1* Pit/Cin over 9 (-110)

[smitch124]

Sept 2nd: 0-3 -6.3 units
September: 2-4 -3.28 units

September 3rd

2* New York Yankees +103
1* Hou/CHC over 7.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

Sept 3rd: 1-1 +0.96 units
September: 3-5 -2.32 units

September 4th

2* Toronto Blue Jays +102
2* Kansas City Royals (Game 2) -110

[smitch124]

Sept 4th: 2-0 +4.04 units
September: 5-5 +1.72 units

September 5th

2* New York Mets -127
2* Cleveland Indians -133

[smitch124]

September 5th: 1-1 -0.54 units
September: 6-6 +1.18 units

September 6th

1* Ari/LAD over 7 (-110)

may add later

[smitch124]

September 6th adding...

2* Chicago White Sox +106
1* Bos/Tex under 11.5 (-115)

[smitch124]

September 6th: 2-1 +1.97 units
September: 8-7 +4.15 units

September 7th

2* Chicago Cubs -118
1* CHC/Cin over 9.5

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 7th adding...

2* Cleveland Indians -152

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 7th addings...

1* Hou/Col under 9.5 (-125)
1* Bos/Tex under 11.5 (-115)

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 7th: 2-3 -1.71 units
September: 10-10 +2.44

Spetember 8th

1* LAD/SD over 8 (+100)

[smitch124]

September 8th: 0-1 -1.05 units
September: 10-11 +1.44 units

September 9th

2* Chicago Cubs -116
2* Minnesota Twins -201
1* CHC/StL over 8.5 (+100)
1* KC/Min over 9 (-110)
1* Oak Det over 10 (-115)

[smitch124]

September 9th: 1-3-1 -2.47 units
September: 11-14-1 -1.03 units
Note: System Totals are 2-9-1 -7.9 units in Sept. Were 9-17-3 -8.90 units in August

September 10th

2* Cincinnati Reds +235

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 10th adding...

2* San Diego Padres +152
2* Minnesota Twins -230

[smitch124]

September 10th: 1-2 -2.00 units
September: 12-16-1 -3.03 units

September 11th

2* Chicago Cubs -139
2* Pittsburgh Pirates +245

[smitch124]

Sept 11th: 1-1 even
September: 13-17-1 -3.03 units

September 12th

2* Texas Rangers +126
1* AtL/NYM over 8 (-110)

[smitch124]

Had no time to cap this weekend...

September 12th: 1-0 +2.52 units (NYM rain out)
September: 14-17-1 -0.51 units

September 15th

SFG/AZ over 9.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

September 15th: 0-1 -1.10 units
September: 14-18-1 -1.61 units

September 16th

2* Washington Nationals +141
2* San Francisco Giants +155
2* Milwaukee Brewers -103
2* Minnesota Twins -152
1* SF/AZ over 7.5 (-103)
1* Min/Cle over 8.5 (-105)
1* LAA/Oak over 7.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

September 16th: 3-5 -3.31 units
September: 17-23-1 -4.92 units

September 17th

1* LAA/Oak over 7.5 (-105)

[smitch124]

September 17th: 0-1 -1.05 units
September: 17-24-1 -5.97 units

September 18th

2* San Francisco Giants -105

[smitch124]

September 18th: 0-1 -2.10 units
September: 17-25-1 -8.07 units

September 19th

2* Detroit Tigers +101
2* Toronto Blue Jays -149
1* Min/TB over 9 (-130) (5 Dimes)
1* SD/Was over 7.5 (-115)

[smitch124]

September 19th: 2-2 -2.98 units
September: 19-27-1 -11.05 units

September 20th

2* Chicago Cubs -187
1* NYM/Atl over 9 (-110)
1* Min/TB over 8 (-120)

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 20th adding...

2* Florida Marlins +125

[smitch124]

September 20th: 2-2 -0.10 units
September: 21-29-1 -11.15 units

September 21st

2* Los Angeles Dodgers -184
2* Arizona D-Backs -147
2* Baltimore Orioles +202

[smitch124]

September 21st: 1-2 -3.68 units
September: 22-31-1 -14.83 units

September 22nd

2* Philadelphia Philles -160
2* Chicago Cuns +132
2* Arizona Diamondbacks -117
2* Cleveland Indians +230
1* Atl/Phi under 9.5 (-110)

[smitch124]

Sept 22nd: 5-0 +12.24 units
September: 27-31-1 -2.59 units

September 23rd

2* Chicago Cubs +210
2* San Diego Padres +220
2* Pittsburgh Pirates +205
1* CHC/NYM over 7.5 (-115)
1* LAA/Sea over 8.5 (-115)

[smitch124]

September 23rd: 2-3 -4.0 units
September: 29-34-1 -6.59 units

September 24th

2* Florida Marlins -128
2* Kansas City Royals +108
1* Cin/Hou under 8.5 (-120)
1* LAA/Sea over 8 (-115)

[smitch124]

September 24th: 4-0 +6.16 units
September: 33-34-1 -0.43 units

September 25th

No time to cap today

[smitch124]

September: 33-34-1 -0.43 units

September 26th

2* Florida Marlins +144
2* Chicago Cubs +101
2* Tampa Bay Rays +105
2* New York Yankees +160
2* Kansas City Royals +221
1* NYY/Bos under 9 (-120)
1* KC/Min over 8 (-110)

[smitch124]

September 26th: 4-3 +6.30 units
September: 37-37-1 +5.87 units

September 27th

2* Florida Marlins +170
(Dropped from +183 in the last hour!!)

may add later...

[smitch124]

September 27th adding...

2* Atlanta +102
2* Kansas City +126
1* Tor/Bal under 10.5 (-110)
1* KC/Min over 8.5 (-120)

[smitch124]

September 27th: 2-2 +1.36 units (Tor/Bal rain shortened)
September: 39-39-1 +7.23 units

September 28th

2* Tampa Bay Rays +100
2* Houston Astros -133

may add later...

[smitch124]

adding....

2* Colorado Rockies +115

Thats it for the regular season!!

[smitch124]

September 28th: 2-1 +2.0 units
September 41-40-1: +9.23 units

Final September Numbers:

September 41-40-1: +9.23 units

I now have a whole year of data to look over and further tweaks to the system will take place in the off-season.

I'm planning to incorporate head to head stats objectively in the formula (have no idea how at this point). I also want to find another (more involved) way to account for the bullpens expected contribution to the game, a daunting task I know, but only trying to be more accurate, it will always be far from perfect.

Have a good off-season everybody!! System plays will start on May 1st of next year...