Baseball Run Lines

[Brick Tamland]

I find myself playing the +1.5 becasue those are the games Pinnacle tells me to play.

[Ganchrow]

Raiders,

I'm agreeing with you here. I was just trying to answer EBone's question regarding selling a 2-run middle at +185 @ +185 based strictly upon his a priori assumption of a 30% chance of a one-run game either way. I do note that this represents a vast oversimplification.

[EBone]

This is why I threw it out there. It totally makes sense to me, because of this discussion, that my theory was and is a "vast oversimplification". I should have taken all factors that have been discussed here into account. I guess I got lucky with what I was doing in June and July.

However, I still think, theoretically, that if I could find, on average, a -1.5 +186 on one side and -1.5 +186 on the other side and found that situation more than 50% of the time, that this would be a good representative sampling in a typical baseball season. The kicker is finding that particular situation more than 50% of the time, which, as I had indicated, was very hard to do. So, maybe my point is moot.

Great stuff though from Raiders and Ganchrow. I sure do like it when I come across people that are smarter than me and share common interests. Learning can be phun.

E

[Ganchrow]

Good post but +206/-224 is better than -111/+101 for the player. Theoretical hold on +206/-224 is 1.78% while +101/-111 is 2.3%

Again. Mea culpa.
I just modified the original post to use better numbers.

[jjgold]

Some great data here boys

Good work

[raiders72001]

ganchrow-