System Plays

[aznbluff]

8/29/2008:

1* White Sox +150
2* Orioles +150
1* Brewers -170
1* Mariners +100
1* Nationals +135
1* Twins -155

[fifawcs]

I don't think I agree with one of these plays.

[aznbluff]

1* White Sox +150 L 1u
2* Orioles +150 L 2u
1* Brewers -170 W 1u
1* Mariners +100 W 1u
1* Nationals +135 W 1.35u
1* Twins -155 W 1 u

[aznbluff]

8/30/2008:
2* Blue Jays +145
2* Phillies +145
1* Pirates +125
2* Athletics +170

[danrman]

??

i like all your picks but i was curious why you picked toronto.. is it because the next day the yankees face halladay???.. im playing the phillies,pitt,oak..

[aznbluff]

Well I just plug it into my system and it tells me what to pick now. I kinda don't like the Oakland pick since I think the Twins romp them tonight but I the +170 is good value I guess.

Add:
4* White Sox +110
2* Giants +120

[aznbluff]

Add:
2* Orioles +170

Parlay:
Giants/White Sox (1u/3.62u)

[aznbluff]

So I should stop adding plays for the sake of adding plays.

2* Blue Jays +145 W 2.90u
2* Phillies +145 W 2.90u
1* Pirates +125 L 1u
2* Athletics +170 W 3.4u
4* White Sox +110 L 4u
2* Giants +120 L 2u
2* Orioles +170 L 2u

3-4 (+0.20u)

[danrman]

my picks today

usc-w
phillies-w
mich-L
ole miss-w
northwestern-w
indians-L
balt. o's-L
royals-w
tigers-royals over-w
astro's-w
chi. white sox-L
sf giants-L
atl braves-L
marlins-w
ala. crimson tide-w
la dogers-w
laa angels-w
a's-w
padres-w
pirates-L
mich st.L
oregon ducks-1/2-time-w
14-8... i like to bet.....

[danrman]

...

So I should stop adding plays for the sake of adding plays.

2* Blue Jays +145 W 2.90u
2* Phillies +145 W 2.90u
1* Pirates +125 L 1u
2* Athletics +170 W 3.4u
4* White Sox +110 L 4u
2* Giants +120 L 2u
2* Orioles +170 L 2u

3-4 (+0.20u)

no you shouldnt... its your system right?

[aznbluff]

Well actually no I dont have anything in my system to account for rookie pitchers since it ruins things like ERA in last 3 starts stats. So I just added random clauses just so I could bet the side I wanted that have since been removed

[danrman]

cool

so what does the system pick on sunday???.. i got to go w/ balt and cwsox.. going small cause i dont want to give back what i won on sunday

[aznbluff]

I gotta run it through. Probably be done in an hour or so from now

[danrman]

my picks for sun

nyy
balt
cwsox
pitt
thinking about cleve.
ladodgers late

[aznbluff]

1* Blue Jays -105
2* Phillies +175
2* Mariners +135
1* Nationals +120
1* Giants +115
2* Dodgers +155
2* Royals +175

[aznbluff]

1* Blue Jays -105
2* Mariners +135
1* Nationals +120
1* Giants +115
2* Dodgers +155
2* Royals +175

Phillies bet is out since starting pitchers changed

[aznbluff]

Originally Posted by aznbluff
1* Blue Jays -105 W 1 u
2* Mariners +135 W 2.70u
1* Nationals +120 W 1.20u
1* Giants +115 L 1u
2* Dodgers +155 W 3.10u
2* Royals +175 L 2u

4-2 (+5.00u)

[danrman]

good job azn

system got it done azn... good job man.. your value plays are smart money management.. i'm going w/ you on your plays tomorrow if you allow it.. keep it strict to the system w/ no clauses as you put it.. my plays today below...
nyy-L
cws-W
pitt-L
balt-L
minn. (RL-1 1/2)-W
kentucky +3-W
colo. rockies-L
colo. buff-11-pending
dodgers-pending

[aznbluff]

Ill need tonights stats to come in and need to wait on what the lines open at but Tigers/Rangers/Indians/Red Sox/Marlins look good tomorrow. Most will probably be heavy favs though.

[danrman]

ok

most will be favs??? yeah those will be.. im sure its not this simple but your system must be keying off of pitchers that have won as of late cause looking at those games thats definitely a common thread of lee,harrison,verlander,johnson,byrd... i thought your system was more value oriented not that there's not value in favs though...

[aznbluff]

Detroit is the only favorite that qualifies for tomorrow. Just waiting for the stats from the Az/LAD game to come in and then Ill post plays.

[aznbluff]

9/1/2008

1* Tigers -150
1* Giants +150
1* Nationals +130
2* Cardinals +150

[danrman]

cool

9/1/2008

1* Tigers -150
1* Giants +150
1* Nationals +130
2* Cardinals +150

cool man and thanks... im curious why earlier you said det/cleve/tex/bost/fla look good and now its these 4???? and who do you like between tenn and ucla.. lets win

[aznbluff]

Cleve/texas/boston/florida look good but the lines are just about perfect on all of them

[aznbluff]

1* Mariners +160

[danrman]

yep

im playing all dogs in the amer. league

[danrman]

nice call on seattle late.. made up a unit and a half for me on a losing day

[aznbluff]

Tuesday looks like make or break day for this system as there are huge disparities between my lines and the early posted ones. I got value in huge dogs, mid dogs, and huge favs (I hope).

2-3 (-1.60 u)

9/2/2008:

4* Orioles +230
1* Pirates +130
1* Astros +180
4* Royals -150
4* Giants -200
4* Padres +170

[danrman]

thanks

thanks for the picks.. one thing i wanted to mention to ya that you might already know.. late in the year from about late july til the end the favs cover more cause all the good teams are chasing each other and the bad teams have sold off all their good players.. this system would probably be even better at the first of the season.. that is if you have enough stats to plug into it.. im not sure exactly how it works of course cause your operating it and not me.. thanks again

[aznbluff]

thanks for the picks.. one thing i wanted to mention to ya that you might already know.. late in the year from about late july til the end the favs cover more cause all the good teams are chasing each other and the bad teams have sold off all their good players.. this system would probably be even better at the first of the season.. that is if you have enough stats to plug into it.. im not sure exactly how it works of course cause your operating it and not me.. thanks again

It accounts for everything. The importance weights of each item is the only thing that needs to be worked on.

[danrman]

well i would definitely show a destinction of whether the pitcher was on the road or at home cause you know how a pitcher can have 3 good starts on the road and then come home and get shelled or vice versa... just tryin to help

[danrman]

went 3-3 w/ your picks.. not bad since i put equal amount on each game..