Front Page MLB Picks (Tue., Aug 26)

[Willie Bee]

Toronto Blue Jays, TB Rays Under 7 as Halladay battles Shields

Game Time: 08/26/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Pitching should dominate in Tampa Bay, as Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, Shields has been great at home and these are the two best bullpens in the AL.

Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, while few pitchers have been as dominant at home as James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays, so runs should be hard to come by tonight.

Halladay is 15-9 with a fantastic 2.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 198 innings, and he personally has more Complete Games than any other team in the league. He has maintained his form all year, as he comes into this contest off of six consecutive Quality Starts, with one of those coming vs. these Rays in a tough-luck 3-0 loss in Toronto.

Now Shields is 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA, but the real story is that he is 8-1 at home with a 2.21 ERA and a microscopic 0.95 WHIP in 101.2 home innings. He has six Quality Starts in his last seven outings, and he allowed just four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He is also a perfect six for six in his career in Quality Starts vs. the Blue Jays, including three starts this season.

Throw in the fact that these are the top two bullpens in the American League in ERA, and the Under seems like an easy call here.

Free Pick: Blue Jays, Rays Under 7 (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Baltimore Orioles +1½ hang with Chicago White Sox

Game Time: 08/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Steve Merril | experts.covers.com

The Orioles have been playing a tough slate at home recently, but they have been keeping those games close. Back Baltimore on the run line vs. the Chicago White Sox.

The Orioles have been playing a brutal schedule over the past week with three straight home series versus the Red Sox, Yankees, and White Sox. While not winning straight-up, the Orioles have been playing competitive baseball with each of their past three losses coming by just 2, 1, and 1 run apiece; therefore the +1½ run line provides extra value tonight.

Baltimore fits a subset of my Underdog System and my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing for Brian Burres who is returning from the minor leagues. Burres struggled at the end of July, but it appears the trip to AAA-Norfolk was beneficial as Burres posted an excellent 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four games there this month.

Meanwhile, my pitcher performance ratings predict a below average outing for Chicago’s Gavin Floyd who has a weak 6.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in his past four starts. Floyd has been particularly bad on the road this year with a 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts with a weak 33-27 strikeout/walk ratio.

Free Pick: Orioles +1½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Milwaukee Brewers +104 behind Sheets at St. Louis Cardinals

Game Time: 08/26/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Consider this a pre-postseason series with both teams looking to sweep the two-game set. Back the Milwaukee Brewers on the road in Game 1 vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers on the road in the Gateway City over the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Brewers must be looking forward to this two-game series against the Cards for several reasons. First, there are few teams in the majors who have dominated a division rival as strongly as Milwaukee has dominated St. Louis recently. In the last 11 games between these two (all played in 2008), Milwaukee is 9-2 against the Cards.

Secondly, Milwaukee is red hot on the road, having gone 14-5 in their last 19 games away from Miller Park. And third, Milwaukee gets to start things off with one of their aces, 30-year-old right-hander Ben Sheets. Although Sheets has had a run of bad luck lately in some of his outings, he is still one of the premier starters in the league and usually finds a way to get it together for big starts such as this one.

The Cards will start another 30-year-old right-hander in Todd Wellemeyer. Sheets and Wellemeyer just faced one another back on July 24 (also in St. Louis) and the Brewers prevailed in that game by a score of 4-3.

The Cardinals continue to battle injury with nine players either on the disabled list or otherwise on the bench with some sort of ailment. Meanwhile, the Brewers continue to be almost completely healthy. The Cards actually have a slightly better road record (37-29) than they do at home in Busch Stadium (36-30). Take the Brewers.

Free Pick: Brewers +104

[Willie Bee]

San Francisco Giants +104 to top the Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 08/26/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

Both the Giants and the Rockies come into this game on recent winning runs, but it's San Francisco who will come out on top of Colorado tonight at AT&T Park by the bay.

The Giants ended their five-game winning streak last night vs. the Rockies, but have won five of their last six games and are hitting 70% in their last 10 matches.

Matt Palmer gets the nod tonight for San Francisco, while left-handed hurler Jorge De La Rosa toes the rubber for the streaking Rockies. Although Colorado has been hot of late, they've been playing lower quality opponents according to my Strength of Schedule power ratings. Colorado has faced teams with SOS ratings of 34.7% in their last seven games and 41.3% in their last 14 games.

A few baseball betting angles support our Giants selection here this evening. In fact, when the Rockies played at night as a 100 to -120 Road Favorite and the total is between 8½ to 9; Colorado is 3-7 SU in this spot since 2000.

Furthermore, when the Giants are at home after a league game and the total is between 8½ to 9, and they are coming off a loss vs. an NL West opponent, San Francisco is 9-2 SU in this role since ’97. Plus, when De La Rosa gets the nod for the Rockies, the team allows 6.24 runs per game and the Giants have been hitting the ball better in their last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.81 runs per game.

Every team has their “streak” during the year; unfortunately, the Giants have waited until the end of the year to get on one! Play them tonight.

Free Pick: Giants +104

[Willie Bee]

Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets in Over 9 slugfest

Game Time: 08/26/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

A short but very critical two-game series opens tonight between the top two teams in the NL East, and it will begin with a slugfest when the Phillies host the New York Mets.

A critical series opens up at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when the top two teams in the NL East are set to do battle. This game features a pair of veterans and neither one has the stuff to keep these powerful lineups in check.

The Mets' Pedro Martinez is 4-3 on the season but has an E.R.A. of 4.97 and will be lucky to make it through five innings of work. His numbers should be much better since he plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark at Shea Stadium. He has just one victory on the season since July 8, and is coming off a four-run performance against Atlanta on August 21.

His opponent is even older in LHP Jamie Moyer, who has pitched well of late but there is a catch to that. His last three starts have come against Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Washington, three of the worst teams in the league. The Mets have seen him a lot recently and expect them to sit back and knock him around early and often.

Free Pick: Mets-Phillies Over 9 (-115)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves -148 vs. Marlins

Game Time: 08/26/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Florida is winless in Scott Olsen's last six starts while Atlanta is 8-4 in Jair Jurrgens' home outings this season. Back the Braves Tuesday when they play host to the Marlins.

The Braves have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight and Atlanta is 8-4 this season when Jair Jurrjens (11-9, 3.28) has started at home.

The Marlins are 0-6 over Scott Olsen's (6-8, 4.11 ERA) last six starts and they are just 4-7 when he has started on the road this season. Olsen has struggled against the Braves in the past with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 6.50 over nine career starts, and he has also struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 6.00 allowing 28 hits over just 18 innings.

Atlanta is 8-2 over their last 10 games as a home favorite of -150 to -175 and they are 16-9 in their last 25 home games against the Marlins. The Marlins are just 8-21 in their last 29 games after a win and they are hitting just .229 as a team over their last seven games while averaging 3.9 RPG. Take Atlanta.

Free Pick: Braves -148

[Willie Bee]

KC Royals -115 vs. Rangers

Game Time: 08/26/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Royals righty Zach Greinke has been solid at home and is in excellent KW form over his last five starts. Cash a ticket on Kansas City Tuesday when they host the Texas Rangers.

The Royals send Zach Greinke to the hill against Kevin Millwood Tuesday evening knowing Greinke's 3.39 ERA at home this season is more than two runs better than Millwood's 5.46 road ERA.

With Greinke in strong KW form with seven walks and 32 strikeouts in his last five starts, we'll stay at home with the Royals here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City with Greinke vs. Millwood.

Free Pick: Royals -115

[Willie Bee]

Twins, Mariners Under 8½ in Seattle

Game Time: 08/26/2008 10:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Scott Baker may be one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, as he is 7-3 with 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for the season. With Rowland-Smith coming off the best start of his brief career, go Under.

Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins has been very solid this year while Ryan Rowland-Smith of the Seattle Mariners keeps improving with each start of his young career, so look for a low scoring contest here.

Rowland-Smith has made just five major league starts, and his last one was arguably his best start yet. He allowed just one run and four hits in seven innings vs. the Oakland Athletics, and he should be anxious to redeem himself after getting bombed by these Twins at Minnesota the first time he faced them.

Baker meanwhile is 7-3 for the season with a nice 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 127.2 innings. He has held his form well with a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his last three starts, and he has been outstanding in his last two road outings, allowing a total of three runs and only 11 hits in 15 innings.

We look for each pitcher to maintain their current form here tonight.

Free Pick: Twins, Mariners Under 8½ (-105)