Front Page MLB Picks (Wed., Aug 20)

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:10 AM

White Sox -210 to continue rampage against Mariners

Game Time: 08/20/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

Forget the '27 Yankees; the real Murderers Row resides on Chicago's South Side where the powerful White Sox hitters rank at the top of the MLB chart with 182 long balls.

The AL Central leading Chicago White Sox will battle the Seattle Mariners in a 2:05 matinee matchup. The White Sox (-210) are white hot and should have little problem disposing of the lowly Mariners.

It was not so long ago that the Florida Marlins were leading the majors in home runs. They are now sitting in fourth place, a whopping 20 behind leading Chicago. With a balanced lineup, the Pale Hose possess eight different players hitting double digits in home runs. The middle of their hitting order is the scariest Windy City export since Jerry Springer. Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome have pounded a combined 90 homers this season. To put that in perspective, that is as many or more than five other clubs have hit (Kansas City, Minnesota, Washington, Toronto & San Francisco). They have actually belted 21 more than the Giants. At this point, I’m not even sure we can still call San Fran a major league city.

Quentin’s 35 are leading the entire league and the MVP buzz is in full swing for the talented outfielder. Some local fans have nicknamed him “TCQ,” which is short for “The Carlos Quentin.” This could be the most tedious abbreviation ever created. SBR member The Panic is still infinitely cooler than The Carlos Quentin, but I’m pretty sure he can’t hit a home run.

TCQ might be popular with the fans and he might even be popular with the ladies, but he certainly is not popular with opposing pitchers. Quentin set a minor league record in 2004 while getting hit by 43 pitches. Recently he was hit in six straight games. I’m not sure why they would want to make this guy angry. He has a couple of buddies batting behind him to help exact some revenge.

Up next comes Dye with his 29 and Thome with 26. These two are goliaths at the plate. Dye stands at 6-5, 245 lbs, while Thome is 6-3, 255. The really big boys, such as Bonds, Ortiz and this duo, can hit home runs by accident. What may be a popout to the shortstop for some batters could possibly float its way out of the park for these guys.

The hit parade doesn’t end with the big three. Nick Swisher (19), Alexei Ramirez (13), Paul Konerko (12) and A.J. Pierzynksi (11) can all leave the park. Joe Crede, who is injured, has 17. Ramirez is particularly impressive. Hardly an imposing figure at 6-3, 185, the lanky infielder has a smooth swing and a .310 batting average. When you are getting this type of production from your number eight hitter, good things are bound to happen.

Chicago has won five in a row, including two straight against the M’s. Seattle has lost five in a row and own the AL’s worst record. I have a theory on the Mariners' woes. They have not been in the playoffs since the 2001 season. Then right before the start of the '02 season, Layne Staley died of a heroin overdose. Staley was the lead singer of legendary Seattle grunge band Alice in Chains. Staley’s songs were beautifully depressing, just like the Seattle sports scene. Until one of their teams wins something, I will call it the Curse of Layne. But then again, I was a big Alice in Chains fan.

Chicago righty Gavin Floyd (12-6 3.75 ERA) will be matched against Seattle knuckler R.A. Dickey (3-7 4.92 ERA). This game could even be worth a look at the runline. Just make sure you fit the Sox on your card somewhere.

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:11 AM

NY Yankees, Blue Jays Under 9½

Game Time: 08/20/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Five of the last six games at the Rogers Centre between the Yankees and Blue Jays have stayed below the total. The Under cashes again tonight when Toronto hosts New York.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays remaining under the total at the Rogers Centre.

Two lefties will go to the mound in this Wednesday night divisional matchup. One is a well-known veteran in Andy Pettitte while the other is a virtual unknown in 26-year-old rookie David Purcey. The Blue Jays southpaw really hasn't pitched that well for Toronto, but he saved his rotation spot with his last start, by far his best of the season (and of his short major league career) as he threw six shutout innings while limiting a strong Tiger lineup to only two hits in Detroit.

The Yankees have certainly had their share of problems this season, and one of the many issues has been their trouble hitting left-handers. They are barely batting .260 against southpaws so far and that, combined with their many injuries is keeping them from contention as we head into the last month of the regular season. With last night's 2-1 pitchers' duel at Rogers Centre, five of the last six games played here between these two squads have gone a total of five runs or fewer. The Under is also 14-3 in Toronto's last 17 home games and 15-5-1 in their last 21 overall as well as 11-3 in Pettitte's last 14 road starts.

Pettitte has faced Toronto five times since coming back to New York at the beginning of 2007, and only one of those games has gone over five runs, and even that one last August, was only nine runs total. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Yankees-Blue Jays Under 9½ (-120)

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:13 AM

Minnesota Twins (-1½) on the run line vs. Oakland A's

Game Time: 08/20/2008 01:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Oakland's offense is averaging less than three runs per game their last 10 while Minnesota is scoring close to six per contest. Take the Twins at home on the run line.

The Twins were up to their usual tricks last night pounding out 13 runs and 16 hits in a rout of the A’s. Simply put, Oakland doesn’t have the pitching or their offense to keep up with Minnesota.

Francisco Liriano, still recovering from arm surgery that cost him all of last season, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been solid if not spectacular posting a 3-3 record with a 4.97 record. Liriano will face right-hander Dallas Braden who has a 3-2 record with an ERA of 4.50. Further supporting my play today: The Twins are an amazing 76-47 on the RL this season and have rewarded backers with +29.85 Units.

Oakland has scored 28 runs over their last 10 games somehow winning four of them during that stretch. Compare that to Minnesota which is 7-3 in its last 10 outings scoring 58 runs during that stretch.

It’s that time of the year that teams with something on the line, like Minnesota, get the job done against the bottom feeders of the league.

Free Pick: Twins -1½ (-120)

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:18 AM

Yankees -142 at Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 08/20/2008 07:07 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Yankees southpaw Andy Pettitte has been a road warrior this year for the Pinstripes, and New York's hitters should light it up against Toronto Blue Jays rookie David Purcey tonight.

Toronto has not hit left-handed pitching well this season with a 13-19 record against southpaw starters and a .231 team batting average in home games. The Jays put together back-to-back successful series with wins against Detroit and Boston but the Yankees have had great success in this series.

Andy Pettitte has been an excellent road pitcher this season with a 7-4 record and a solid ERA, and he pitched well in a loss against Toronto earlier this season. David Purcey has been hit hard in short major league career with a 5.93 ERA and walks have been a big problem. A patient lineup like the Yankees can eat up pitchers with suspect control and Purcey has allowed 19 walks in just 30 innings.

The Yankees struggled on the last road trip but the travel was extremely difficult going from Texas to Los Angeles to Minnesota. This will be a much easier trip and a familiar environment and the Yankees should dominate tonight.

Free Pick: Yankees -142

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:19 AM

Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles Over 11 at Camden

Game Time: 08/20/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Boston's Clay Buchholz and Baltimore's Chris Waters have been struggling, and at a launching pad like Camden Yards, the Red Sox and Orioles should go over the total.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher today against the Baltimore Orioles, Clay Buchholz (2-8, 6.35 ERA), will make his first start since August 10. In his last outing the big Texan went just three innings, allowing three HR in an eventual 6-5 loss to the White Sox. This kid has been a real train wreck this season, and I don't think the extended rest will help him.

In my humble opinion he should really be down in the minors honing his skills. The 24-year-old right-hander during a current nine-game run (eight starts) has garnered an 0-6 record along with an ugly 8.62 ERA. I think the BoSox coaching staff has allowed him to go this far because of the no-hitter he pitched in his first major league start last season gainst today's opponent the Orioles. That was then and this is now, and considering his current form, I'm expecting the O's explosive offense to unload on him in this spot, much like they did back on July 11 when they compiled five hits, four runs and five walks in five innings for a 7-3 win.

Meanwhile, the Orioles will return fire with a struggling hurler of their own, southpaw Chris Waters (1-0, 4.32 ERA). The Florida native also started out with a great effort in his MLB debut shutting out a potent Angels lineup, but since then has not fared so well, failing to get past the fifth inning in his last two starts. The fifth round pick has allowed 15 hits and eight runs in his last 8.2 innings of work, and here today against a Boston offense that has averaged 7.2 RPG in their last 10 games, I expect his problems will continue.

I know the linesmakers have attached a fairly high number to this tilt, but rightly so as two efficient offenses tee off on two very hittable throwers and bullpens here in the launching pad known as Camden Canaveral. Look for and expect a big time slugfest here this evening.

Final Notes & Key Trends; Buchholz owns a 8.18 ERA in nine road outings this season. The Over is 5-1 in Buchholz' last six road starts. Waters in his one home appearance
garnered a 13.50 ERA. The Over is 44-18-4 in the Orioles' last 66 overall. The Over is 10-1 in umpire Alfonso Marquez' last 11 apperances behind home plate.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Orioles Over 11 (-105)

Willie Bee · 08-20-08, 11:21 AM

Tampa Bay Rays -125 to sweep Angels

Game Time: 08/20/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rays are now 47-17 at home and they have the red-hot Matt Garza on the hill. Jered Weaver has been a disappointment for the Halos, so play Tampa Bay at home again.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now 5-0 at Tropicana Field vs. the Los Angeles Angels this year after winning the first two games of this series, and we look for the Rays to finish off the home season sweep tonight.

Rays starter Matt Garza is coming off of a Complete Game two-hit shutout of the normally hard-hitting Texas Rangers at Arlington. This marked his second Complete Game shutout in six starts, and the third time in those six starts that he has tossed at least 7.2 scoreless innings. Garza also has a nice 2.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year.

Jered Weaver has been a disappointment for an excellent Angel team, as he is only 10-9 with a 4.48 ERA, with the Halos as a team going a modest 12-12 in his starts. Weaver has failed to record a Quality Start in his last five starts, allowing at least five earned runs in two of those outings. He also has a rather high 1.45 WHIP on the road for the entire year.

The Rays are an amazing 47-17 at home, and we see no reason why they cannot bust out the brooms here.

Free Pick: Rays -125