The collective wisdom of SBR thread

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Simple idea here: attempt to discern the common wisdom on most games, weighted by posters picking records (yes, very subjective). Then adjust depending on the price I can get vs the price they posted, and stake as per half-kelly.

Starting today with 100 units, this gives:


1.5 units @1.81 pinnacle cubs GM2
3.33 units @2.32 pinnacle stl cards
4 units @1.41 quicksilver boston sox
4 units @1.54 pinnacle chisox
2.5 units @1.81 diamond colorado
2.25 units @1.68 quicksilver la angels
1.5 units @2.27 pinnacle tampa
4.33 units @1.52 pinnacle brewers

Total 23.41 units staked


Probably too many picks for my liking, and too many favourites, but what the heck.

[smitch124]

interesting idea...good luck!!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

interesting idea...good luck!!

Thanks - should make clear I've also got my own cash riding on these :-) After all, no better way to discipline yourself for an experiment.....

[pat venditto]

bol pal solid plays

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Got to say, SBR forum looking pretty damn wise atm. 4/4 so far, and of the other four colorado/angels/tampa are all 2 up, milwaukee are 3 up.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Well, not too shabby:

1.5 units @1.81 pinnacle cubs GM2 *WIN* returns 2.715
3.33 units @2.32 pinnacle stl cards *WIN* returns 7.726
4 units @1.41 quicksilver boston sox *WIN* returns 5.64
4 units @1.54 pinnacle chisox *WIN* returns 6.16
2.5 units @1.81 diamond colorado *WIN* returns 4.525
2.25 units @1.68 quicksilver la angels *LOSS*
1.5 units @2.27 pinnacle tampa *WIN* returns 3.405
4.33 units @1.52 pinnacle brewers *WIN* returns 6.582

Total 23.41 units staked, returns 36.75, net +13.34


Overall 100 +13.34 = 113.34

[HeeeHAWWWW]

3 units @1.7 zedbet, chic cubs
3.33 units @1.65 lasseters, ny mets
2.5 units @1.85 quicksilver, pittsburgh

Total 8.83 units staked

[smitch124]

Nice 1st day!! GL tonight...

[HeeeHAWWWW]

3 units @1.7 zedbet, chic cubs *WIN* returns 5.1
3.33 units @1.65 lasseters, ny mets *WIN* returns 5.49
2.5 units @1.85 quicksilver, pittsburgh *LOSS*

Total 8.83 units staked, returns 10.59, net +1.76

Overall 113.34 + 1.76 = 115.1

[HeeeHAWWWW]

3.33 units -116@quicksilver, Chisox

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -132@5dimes, Phillies

[HeeeHAWWWW]

3.33 units -116@quicksilver, Chisox *LOSS*
2 units -132@5dimes, Phillies *WIN* returns 3.52 units

Total staked 5.33, returns 3.52, net -1.81


Overall 115.1 - 1.81 = 113.29

[smitch124]

well not the best night but your still buying the drinks

[HeeeHAWWWW]

6 units -200@quicksilver, Twins
4 units -147@pinnies, Mets

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -144@pinnacle, Phillies

[HeeeHAWWWW]

6 units -200@quicksilver, Twins *WIN* returns 9 units
4 units -147@pinnies, Mets *WIN* returns 6.72 units
2 units -144@pinnacle, Phillies *LOSS*

12 units staked, 15.72 returns, net +3.72


Overall 113.29 + 3.72 = 117.01

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -115@expekt, Phillies RL-1.5

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -115@expekt, Phillies RL-1.5 *LOSS*

Net: -2
Overall: 117.01 - 2 =115.01

[HeeeHAWWWW]

6 units -135@expekt, Twins

[HeeeHAWWWW]

6.5 units -215@5dimes, Chisox

[HeeeHAWWWW]

1.5 units -115@diamond, The mighty Texas who can't pitch for ****

[AC1318]

what games are you picking ones everyone agrees on ??

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Nah, that wouldn't work cos the prices would be terrible (eg Brewers the last few games), and you'd end up betting heavy favourites all the time. The idea is to get at value a different route.

Finding it difficult refining things though, as I'm just ending up with way too much info and contradictory opinions (and thus ending up with very few picks compared to the first day). For today's ones I'm doing things a little differently, resulting in the heavy bet on the Twins (heavy by kelly standards anyway, since it's nearer evens) - essentially I checked out all the arguments either way, and filtered things a bit.

[AC1318]

as long as your making I guess roll with it

[HeeeHAWWWW]

6 units -135@expekt, Twins *LOSS*
6.5 units -215@5dimes, Chisox *WIN* returns 9.52
1.5 units -115@diamond, The mighty Texas who can't pitch for **** *DUH*

Net -4.48
Overall 110.53


Going backwards a bit here, although not sure if it's just normal variance or the changes I've been trying to make. Losing a lot of matches very tight though (last three losses all by a single run).

Still, 5 days, up 10.5%, using fairly conservative staking. Have to keep on with it for the moment - maybe loosen up the match rejection criteria a bit. Slightly irritating to note that the other three under consideration (boston/milwaukee/tampa) all won , although I don't really regret skipping the brewers at such short odds.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -128@lasseters, Toronto
3 units -200@5dimes, mets

[HeeeHAWWWW]

1 unit +220@ladbrokes, houston
2.5 units -213@expekt, cardinals
3 units -189@IAS, arizona
2 units -147@5dimes, dodgers
1 unit -145@IAS, marlins

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2 units -128@lasseters, Toronto *WIN* returns 3.56
3 units -200@5dimes, mets *WIN* returns 4.5
1 unit +220@ladbrokes, houston *WIN* returns 3.2
2.5 units -213@expekt, cardinals *LOSS*
3 units -189@IAS, arizona *WIN* returns 4.59
2 units -147@5dimes, dodgers *LOSS*
1 unit -145@IAS, marlins *WIN returns 1.69

Net +3.04
Overall 110.53 + 3.04 = 113.57

[HeeeHAWWWW]

5 units -240@IAS, Twins

[HeeeHAWWWW]

1.5 units -113@expekt, Kansas
4 units -245@lasseters, Phillies
2.66 units -154@zedbet, Yankees
1.5 units +122@Diamond, Baltimore
3 units -128@pinnacle, Mets
3.66 units -110@stanjames, Tampa

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Oops, missed one:

5 units -222@pinnacle, Cardinals

[HeeeHAWWWW]

5 units -240@IAS, Twins returns 7.08
1.5 units -113@expekt, Kansas
4 units -245@lasseters, Phillies returns 5.63
2.66 units -154@zedbet, Yankees returns 4.39
1.5 units +122@Diamond, Baltimore returns 3.33
3 units -128@pinnacle, Mets returns 5.34
3.66 units -110@stanjames, Tampa
5 units -222@pinnacle, Cardinals returns 7.25

Total stakes 26.32, returns 33.02, net +6.70

Overall 113.57 + 6.70 =120.27


First week of picks complete, up 20% :-)

[HeeeHAWWWW]

8.5 units -333@lasseters, Cubs

[HeeeHAWWWW]

2.66 units -200@lasseters, Mets

[HeeeHAWWWW]

8.5 units -333@lasseters, Cubs *WIN* returns 11.05
2.66 units -200@lasseters, Mets *WIN* returns 3.99


Total stakes 11.16, returns 15.04, net +3.88

Overall 120.27 + 3.88 = 124.15