Front Page MLB Picks (Wed., Aug 13)

[Willie Bee]

Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland A’s to stay Under 7½ again at -115

Game Time: 08/13/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rays and the A’s have been two of the best Under teams in the majors, and these teams played a 2-1 game last night. Go Under again tonight in Oakland.

The Oakland Athletics upset the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 here last night, and while they may not win again tonight, we do expect another low-scoring affair.

Justin Duchscherer has quietly pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball this season in the obscurity that is Oakland, as he has a 2.51 ERA and a fantastic 0.99 WHIP in 132.2 innings. If he pitched for a team that could score any runs whatsoever, he would be a lot better than 10-7 right now. Duchscherer is also facing the Rays for the first time ever, which is to his advantage.

Meanwhile, Andy Sonnanstine is 11-6 for Tampa Bay, albeit with a mediocre 4.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Still, the Oakland offense can make even an average pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate, as the Athletics are hitting a pathetic .211 as a team over their last 10 games while averaging an anemic 2.20 runs in those contests.

Also, both of these bullpens are ranked in the top 10 in the majors in pen ERA, which should limit any late tack-on runs, and both clubs have been very Under-friendly in general. The Under is now 68-48-2 in all Tampa Bay games this season, and an even better 69-42-7 in all Oakland contests.

Free Pick: Rays, Athletics Under 7½ (-115)

[Willie Bee]

Cleveland Indians +100 to cash at home vs. Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 08/13/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Anthony Reyes will be out to impress his new employers in Cleveland tonight when the Indians take an impressive 25-7 home mark against the Baltimore Orioles into action.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Cleveland Indians on their home turf over the Baltimore Orioles.

With all the big-name trades that took place at the end of July, practically nobody noticed when the St. Louis Cardinals shipped starter Anthony Reyes to the Cleveland Indians for an even more anonymous pitcher by the name of Luis Perdomo. But this is the kind of trade that people potentially could be talking about in a year or two. After all, Reyes was once the Cards' top pitching prospect.

But constant battles with pitching coach Dave Duncan over whether he should be a power or finesse type of starter left Reyes disillusioned with the management and in need of a change of environment. And with the Indians' excellent track record of developing young pitching prospects, what better place for him than in Cleveland, especially now with their rotation for 2009 seemingly wide open (at least all the spots after #1 starter Cliff Lee).

Although the Indians are well out of contention this season, Reyes has already showed them glimpses of the type of starter he could be for this team in the next several years, as he went 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A Buffalo and then had a very nice showing in his first start in a Cleveland uniform, pitching 6+ very strong innings at Toronto last Friday.

Cleveland has been very dominant at home against Baltimore as the Indians are 25-7 against the O's in their last 32 games. Take the Tribe.

Free Pick: Indians +100

[Willie Bee]

Pittsburgh Pirates -155 vs. Reds

Game Time: 08/13/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

This one is a no-brainer as Paul Maholm has pitched very well at home in Pittsburgh while Cincinnati's Josh Fogg has been awful on the road. Play the Pirates Wednesday vs. the Reds.

Cross-river rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati square off in Game 2 of this three-game series in the Steel City when the Pirates' Paul Maholm takes on Josh Fogg of the Reds.

A quick check of each hurler's home and road ERA tells us all we need to know in this matchup as Maholm's 3.14 home ERA in more than five full runs better than Fogg's 8.15 road ERA this season. With Maholm in solid current form, look for Fogg to fall to 0-8 in his last eight August road team starts here tonight.

Free Pick: Pirates -155

[Willie Bee]

Red Sox -1½ to run past Rangers

Game Time: 08/13/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Last night's wild 19-17 contest between these two at Fenway gave the Red Sox their fifth straight over the Rangers in Boston. Jon Lester and the BoSox make it six straight tonight.

Last night the Boston Red Sox took out the visiting Texas Rangers in a entertaining 19-17 slugfest for their fifth straight win in this series here in Fenway Park this season. I expect the BoSox to make it six in a row after tonight as they tee off on a pitcher, Luis Mendoza (3-5, 7.50), that has performed like a thrower in the annual home run derby.

The right-hander is 1-2, along with a bloated 7.50 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break, and has been roughed up on a consistent basis in his road starts in 2008 as is evident by a 1-3 record and an ugly 8.46 ERA. Left-handed batters are hitting .352 against him, while right-handed hitters are batting .294. It must also be noted that opposing lineups are smashing him for .381 average with runners in scoring position.

Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Jon Lester (10-4, 3.23 ERA) continues to impress the pundits with his performances, and despite having his 11-win streak stopped last time out, he still pitched well allowing just six hits in seven innings for a tough-luck 5-3 loss against the White Sox. The 2000 Gatorade Player of the Year has a Washington high schooler has been very hard on lefty hitters this year allowing them a lowly .223 BA which holds good implications for us backing him against a Rangers team with LH sluggers like Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis in the lineup.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Red Sox are 14-2 in their last 16 when Lester starts at home, winning those games by an average of 2.8 RPG. Play Boston on the run line.

Free Pick: Red Sox -1½ (-120)

[Willie Bee]

New York Mets -142 at Nationals

Game Time: 08/13/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Rocky Atkinson | 10starpicks.com

The Mets have played very well in the nations' capital with a 16-5 mark since the start of the 2006 season. Play New York Wednesday when they visit the Nationals in Washington.

Washington is 1-10 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Washington is 44-95 the last three years when the total is 8 to 8½ and 25-54 the last three years at home when the total is 8 to 8½.

Washington is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall, 3.6 runs per game at home and 3.5 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Jason Bergmann is only 2-8 overall this year including 0-2 at home.

The New York Mets are 16-5 at Washington the last three years. John Maine is 5-2 overall vs Washington since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the New York Mets tonight!

Free Pick: Mets -142

[Willie Bee]

Play San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros Under 9½ (-130)

Game Time: 08/13/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

The sharps have already seen this total and bet it down to 9 runs. Buy a hook on the number and play Under 9½ when the Houston Astros host the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants and Astros tangle tonight at Minute Maid Park and Barry Zito gets the call for San Francisco while Houston retaliates with Wolf. The Under is 7-3-0 in the Giants' last 10 games and they don’t score many runs when Zito is on the mound, as he only receives 3.04 run support per start.

I’ve got a few trends on tonight’s game that support our Under selection:

• For Houston, when they’re a -140 to -160 home favorite vs. a non-division foe and the O/U is between 9½-10, the Under is 10-4-0 for the Astros in this spot since 1997.
• As for the Giants, when they’re an underdog this season and their last game went over the total, the Under is 12-3-0 for San Francisco this season.

Seems the sharps have caught on to this total, as its being bet down to 9. Therefore, buy a hook tonight and take the Under 9½ (-130).

[Willie Bee]

Tampa Bay Rays +120 as dogs at Oakland A's

Game Time: 08/13/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Despite dropping last night's contest in Oakland, Tampa Bay remains on a nice run with 10 wins in their last 13 games. Ride the Rays this evening against the Athletics.

Both teams have both struggled with tonight's starters on the mound lately, but tonight the Tampa Bay Rays' ability to score will win out.

After last night's game, the Rays have won 10 of their last 13. Tampa is 5-2 in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 6-22 in their last 28 games. Oakland has lost seven of their last nine home games and five of six home games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Rays can score runs while the A's have struggled all season long and that's the difference tonight. Play on Tampa Bay.

Free Pick: Rays +120

[Willie Bee]

Brewers, Padres to struggle Under 7

Game Time: 08/13/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

C.C. Sabathia has been brilliant since entering the National League, and he now gets to face the worst offense in the league. Josh Banks has also pitched well in this pitcher’s park this year, so go Under.

Yes, this is a low posted total between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres, but we feel it is warranted given the combination of these stating pitchers and this spacious ball park.

C.C. Sabathia is a perfect seven for seven in Quality Starts since putting on the Brewers uniform, with a 1.58 ERA and an incredible 0.91 WHIP in 57 National League innings. He has actually already faced the Padres once this season while with the Cleveland Indians in interleague play, allowing three runs on only six hits with 10 strikeouts in eight innings. He should love pitching at San Diego for the first time, given that the Padres at batting a terrible .217 vs. southpaws at home this year.

Now Josh Banks is an average pitcher in reality, but like most pitchers, this stadium makes him seem better than he is. Banks actually has a nice 2.30 ERA when pitching at home, and he is facing a Milwaukee lineup that has hit significantly lower vs. right-handed pitching on the road (.246) than vs. left-handers (.273) this year.

The Under is also 8-1-2 in the last 11 Milwaukee games overall, and we see no reason why that will not continue given these circumstances.

Free Pick: Brewers, Padres Under 7 (-115)